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Ah, Week One - that magical time when hope springs eternal, lineups are fresh, and every player on your roster looks like they’re about to put up 30 points. But here’s the thing: Week 1 can also be a minefield. Just because you drafted someone high doesn’t mean they’re destined to go off this week.
That’s where I come in. I’m here to help you navigate some potential landmines - players who might look like no-brainer starts on paper but could leave you shaking your head on Tuesday morning. I understand the unpredictability of Week 1, and I'm here to guide you through it.
In this article, we’ll look at five players across different positions who, while talented and potentially productive throughout the season, might not live up to their Week 1 expectations. Remember, these players have the potential to shine in the long run. If you’ve got depth on your bench, you might want to consider using it. Let’s break it down.
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Dak Prescott vs. Cleveland Browns
We all know Dak can sling it. But in Week 1, he’s up against the Cleveland Browns defense, which is terrifying for anyone hoping to start him. Look, this is not the Browns team of yesteryear, where you’d start your QB with confidence and count on a shootout.
Under defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz, they’ve evolved into a pass-rushing juggernaut led by Myles Garrett. Schwartz’s aggressive schemes are designed to put quarterbacks under duress early and often.
Dak might have a massive weapon in CeeDee Lamb, but after holding out for all of training camp, he may need time to acclimatize. The Cowboys also have few top-end receiving weapons to complement Lamb and they have a shaky running game (with Ezekial Elliott returning after being cast off in 2022).
Cleveland allowed just 164.7 passing yards per game in 2023, ranking first in the league. More problematic for Prescott is their pass-rush win rate, which was near the top of the league last season. Dak will get his points over the season, but this week, you're better off streaming someone like Geno Smith or Jared Goff with a better matchup.
For the first time in Training Camp 2024, Dak Prescott hands the ball off to Zeke Elliott. pic.twitter.com/06IAW8kn8x
— Mike Leslie (@MikeLeslieWFAA) July 25, 2024
James Conner vs. Buffalo Bills
James Conner is one of those volume guys - he’s often the sole bright spot on a sputtering offense. But that volume might turn into a slog against a stout Buffalo Bills defense this week. First, the Bills’ run defense has been perennially solid, and they are very tough to beat on their home turf.
Add in rookie RB Trey Benson and Kyler Murray stealing carries, and the volume will continue to slide in a download trajectory.
Conner’s big appeal has always been his ability to handle a heavy workload, but let’s not ignore the context. The Cardinals’ offense is, to put it mildly, in transition. They’ll likely be playing from behind most of the game, which could lead to a pass-heavy game script (add in rookie Marvin Harrison Jr. to the mix), limiting Conner’s touches.
In Week 1, against a tough Bills front seven, Conner could be more of a grinder than a fantasy star. If you have another option with a more favorable matchup, try to pivot.
Kyler Murray 🤝 James Conner
How many catches will the Arizona Cardinals RB have in 2024? #AZCardinals #Birdgang
🎥: @Tdrake4sports pic.twitter.com/f5sPER5NAK
— Cardinals Corner (@AZCardsCorner) June 4, 2024
Brandon Aiyuk vs. New York Jets
Brandon Aiyuk was a sneaky value pick in many drafts, and his upside is undeniable. However, Week 1 is not the week to expect a breakout performance.
He’s matched up against the New York Jets, who field arguably the best cornerback in the league in Sauce Gardner. Gardner was a lockdown menace in 2023, ranking first among his peers when it came to preventing separation on all routes and routinely erasing No. 1 wide receivers from the game plan.
Aiyuk also has to contend that he missed all of training camp, and the 49ers’ offense spreads the ball around. Deebo Samuel, George Kittle, and Christian McCaffrey are all high-priority targets in a game that could quickly turn into a defensive slugfest. All of this screams “stay away” if you have other solid receiving options.
First look at Brandon Aiyuk fully back out at practice since Tuesday’s short viewing window was only into the stretch portion pic.twitter.com/drV10tfjej
— David Lombardi (@LombardiHimself) September 5, 2024
Kyle Pitts vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
Kyle Pitts, the human enigma. We keep waiting for him to break out, but Week 1 might not be the time for that explosion, especially against the Pittsburgh Steelers. Yes, Pitts is an athletic freak; yes, he has potential through the roof.
But let's look at the matchup. Pittsburgh’s defense under Mike Tomlin has been consistently tough on opposing tight ends. Last year, they allowed just 44.4 yards per game to the position, one of the lowest totals in the league.
Moreover, there are lingering questions about Kirk Cousins’ health (after tearing his Achilles in 2023) to consistently get the ball to Pitts. Cousins hasn’t ever played a game with Pitts, and in a Week 1 matchup where the Steelers’ pass rush, led by T.J. Watt, could force him into uncomfortable throws, Pitts could be a victim of circumstance.
You likely don’t have another TE with Pitts’ upside, but if you do, starting them might be the safer bet this week.
#Falcons Kirk ➡️ Pitts
Pitts is a Top ___ TE in Fantasy in 2024?#RiseUp pic.twitter.com/UeBaIQ7iVA
— Fantasy Football Pill (@FantasyPill) August 12, 2024
Najee Harris, RB, vs. Atlanta Falcons
This might be the most controversial landmine on the list, but hear me out. Najee Harris is a potential workhorse, but there’s a strong argument that he will not get the volume he deserves. New offensive coordinator Arthur Smith (formerly of the Atlanta Falcons) did not consistently give the ball to stud Bijon Robinson in 2023, so with Jaylen Warren on the roster, look for an even split.
Harris' efficiency is the other concern, as he averaged a mediocre 4.1 yards per carry last season. The Falcons aren’t a team that gets blown out quickly, meaning this could turn into a grind-it-out kind of game with low fantasy ceilings for running backs.
Harris will get his touches, but don’t be shocked if he doesn’t find the end zone or break off any big plays. If you’ve got an RB with a more favorable matchup, consider giving Harris a seat for Week One.
Final Week One Thoughts
Week One is always tricky, and while these five players might be must-starts in other weeks, the matchups this week could spell trouble. Fantasy football is about maximizing potential and avoiding risk where possible.
By steering clear of these potential landmines, you give yourself a better shot at opening the season with a win. So, take a deep breath, look at your bench, and make the call - sometimes, the best move is the one you don’t make.
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