Fantasy Football Avoids, Busts: 2025 NFL Free Agent Signings

John breaks down which 2025 NFL free-agent signings will be busts for fantasy football. Which signed free agents should you avoid drafting in fantasy football in 2025?

The 2025 NFL free-agency period is well underway, and many wide receivers, tight ends, quarterbacks, and running backs have already found their new homes. While some of them are in better landing spots, or at least should continue having solid production relative to their ADP (anticipated draft position) in fantasy football, some of them should be avoided.

There are several factors that can contribute to this. Perhaps the play-calling won't help them produce well. They could be on a team with more competition for targets or backfield volume. They could also just be in a worse situation overall, and it's obvious that good players on bad offenses tend to struggle to maximize their potential without an accompanying increase in workload.

Whatever the situation, we should scrutinize the new teams of players who have moved in free agency very carefully. It's important to avoid busts in fantasy football, and though it's not always possible to avoid them all, sometimes it makes sense to take contrarian stances because they end up being accurate at season's end. So, let's dive into all the potential busts and players you should avoid drafting in fantasy football in 2025 from the free-agency period.

• 2025 fantasy football rankings (redraft)
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• Quarterback fantasy football rankings
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• Wide receiver fantasy football rankings
• Tight end fantasy football rankings

DK Metcalf, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers

I just cannot wait to have to revise all of my articles that feature new Pittsburgh Steelers wide receiver DK Metcalf! It should be a lot of fun. Though, what I will end up changing is simply how bad the situation is for him based on what quarterback the team signs, not whether or not his new landing spot is good for him. Metcalf's fantasy stock is taking a clear hit in my mind.

For starters, the team doesn't look like it'll re-sign QB Russell Wilson, who would be reunited with Metcalf, and still has an excellent deep ball, though other areas of his game are suffering.

The only move Pittsburgh has made so far is signing QB Mason Rudolph, who almost certainly will not start, as he is not a starting-caliber QB. So far, there have been plenty of rumors that the team will sign QB Aaron Rodgers, but nothing's concrete yet.

Now that I'm in a much better mood about NFL stuff, I would much rather have Russell Wilson back than Aaron Rodgers.

Wilson didn't play the best down the stretch, but I would much rather have his positivity and ability than Aaron's negativity and regression. pic.twitter.com/t0m2rhhBcB

— Bernard Oliver (@boliver36) March 11, 2025

Metcalf suffered an MCL injury a few games into the 2024 season. It would be wrong to blame quarterback Geno Smith for Metcalf's reduced production. In fact, in the first seven games of the year before the injury, Smith targeted him 60 times (nearly nine targets per game), resulting in 35 catches for 568 yards and three touchdowns. His season-long pace would have thus been 146 targets, 85 receptions, 1,380 yards, and seven or eight touchdowns.

At the time, the Seahawks offensive coordinator was Ryan Grubb, who called for far more throws than normal and was fired as a result of constantly abandoning the run game to call more pass plays. Thus, all the Seahawks pass-catchers were afforded more volume. And Smith's film was the best of his career, with him constantly being forced to play hero ball. Seattle had one of the worst pass-protecting offensive lines in the league and was constantly bailed out by Smith's mobility, pocket navigation, and sack-avoidance skill set.

Farewell, Geno Smith. pic.twitter.com/CG1xuqbeI7

— Seahawk Nerd (@SeahawkNerd) March 10, 2025

Now, Metcalf will join a team with an established WR1, George Pickens. Both have exhibited character issues on the field, regularly instigating fights with opposing defenders. Both have similar skill sets, being deep-ball specialists and not route-running technicians.

And both will be on one of the most old-school, ground-and-pound, smashmouth, foot-in-the-dirt, traditional run-heavy offenses in the league. Steelers offensive coordinator Arthur Smith called run plays at the fifth-highest rate in the league in 2024, despite not having an elite RB in his backfield, or even a difference-maker at running back.

I won't like Metcalf being on the Steelers. 5th-most run happy team in the NFL last year, in spite of not having a mobile QB or productive RB, which Philly, Baltimore, and Buffalo all had. Steelers are No. 1 in the NFL at running more than they should. pic.twitter.com/snEjPDnpp1

— JohnJohn Analysis (@JohnJohnalytics) March 13, 2025

And simply calling the Steelers the "fifth-most run-happy team" is misleading because they didn't have a hyper-mobile rushing quarterback who racked up yards on the ground and didn't have an elite RB1. Three of the teams that ran more often than Pittsburgh were the Baltimore Ravens, Buffalo Bills, and Philadelphia Eagles. The Ravens had quarterback Lamar Jackson and running back Derrick Henry, the Bills had Josh Allen and James Cook, and the Eagles had Jalen Hurts and Saquon Barkley.

There isn't a QB left who would make Metcalf's situation here better than it was in 2024 before the injury. And things could get worse before they get better. Rodgers, Wilson, whoever they sign, I'm avoiding drafting Metcalf in all leagues in 2025 because I don't think he'll be able to consistently produce at a level worth his ADP.

Christian Kirk, WR, Houston Texans

I don't think that Kirk is a bad player, I just don't like this landing spot much. The problem isn't him, it's quarterback C.J. Stroud, whose play took a massive couple of steps back in 2024 after winning Offensive Rookie of the Year in 2023. The biggest culprit of this was the poor offensive line play. Stroud looked rattled nearly all season, and the only wide receiver who was able to consistently succeed in the offense was Nico Collins.

The Ravens DT's were disruptive and dominant at times against the Texans on Saturday. Madubuike, Jones, Pierce, and Washington each made plays to pressure, or hit, CJ Stroud while holding Houston to a season-low 38-yards Rushing.#Ravens #RavensFlock #BaltimoreRavens pic.twitter.com/ItwscmBykd

— All 22 Films (@All_22_NFL_Cuts) January 23, 2024

The biggest problem was the offensive line. It also took a big step back, especially pass-protection-wise, from 2023. It's also likely that defenses saw just how much different Stroud was under pressure than from clean pockets (i.e. way, way worse) and exploited this to great effect. Stroud often made very poor throws, even at times when a sack wasn't imminent, but was harassed constantly by opposing pass-rushers.

Trade: Texans are trading five-time Pro Bowl offensive tackle Laremy Tunsil to the Washington Commanders for a package of picks, sources tell ESPN.

— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) March 10, 2025

So, it was curious to see the Texans trade away not one, but two of their starting offensive linemen in this year's free-agency period. Left tackle Laremy Tunsil, one of the best pass-protectors in the league, and offensive guard Kenyon Green, a former first-round pick, were traded to the Washington Commanders and Philadelphia Eagles, respectively. Stroud now has an even weaker OL with less depth moving forward.

Stroud's interception.

This is pretty brutal, I'm having a hard time putting together what he was doing. Maybe he was trying to throw it away but the pressure in his face didn't allow him to put mustard on the ball? pic.twitter.com/IJ0YEraecH

— Jeremy Branham (@JeremyBranham) January 14, 2025

It's not all the pressure's fault, though. Stroud deserves a lot of the blame for just playing worse, and way worse when the OL doesn't hold up a lot. I know that's a lot about Stroud, but Kirk will be the second option in a passing offense that wasn't ever able to be consistent.

Collins will continue to be a target hog, so Kirk will get second helpings, which can be mostly fine. But if the offensive line doesn't play super well in 2025, and I have a hard time believing it will, I imagine Kirk won't be trustworthy as a starter on fantasy football rosters at any point.

One thing about Kirk (actually about Kirk) that concerns me is that he virtually never played in 12 personnel in 2024. Instead, he only played in three-WR sets, meaning he saw the field a lot less than the outside WRs.

This could change in 2025, though. I'm not sure who else Houston trusts as a pass-catcher because Xavier Hutchinson, John Metchie III, and Robert Woods aren't very good and Tank Dell may hardly play in 2025 -- even if he does, he'll be significantly diminished due to his devastating knee injury from last year.

Mike Williams, WR, Los Angeles Chargers

I've repeatedly called the Chargers one of the best landing spots for wide receivers in the league. That is, a WR who isn't completely washed and still has something left in the tank.

I'm not sure Williams has much left to offer, though. He'll turn 31 years old in October, has looked nothing like his old self since his ACL tear in 2023, and hardly had an impact with the New York Jets or Pittsburgh Steelers last season.

Mike Williams Injury History:
-Neck vertebrae fracture
-Herniated disc in back
-Knee bone bruse
-Back strain
-AC Joint sprain
-Hamstring strain
-Lower back strain again
-High ankle sprain
-Ankle sprain again
-ACL tear
31 years old, long brutal injury history. Avoid in fantasy pic.twitter.com/bc2JABYOiM

— JohnJohn Analysis (@JohnJohnalytics) March 13, 2025

Williams' injury history is also particularly brutal. There's been some pushback against the "injury-prone" label for Williams, but it applies to him pretty perfectly. While he'll be reunited with quarterback Justin Herbert, who made him a productive fantasy option in years past, I don't have confidence he'll hold up, or that his separation skills will be sufficient to earn a lot of targets, catches, and yards.

L.A. has a big WR problem right now, and it is trying to put a band-aid on it when it should be seeking medical treatment. Ladd McConkey is an excellent WR, but without another very good WR or TE, the passing offense will struggle yet again against good defenses in 2025. Williams isn't part of a good solution there.

DeAndre Hopkins, WR, Baltimore Ravens

Hopkins' age alone should give fantasy managers pause before drafting him in 2025. But his season last year was a disappointment. He dealt with a knee injury early in the year but was traded to the Kansas City Chiefs, where it was thought he would have consistently good production, especially after his Week 9 performance of eight catches for 86 yards and two touchdowns.

Ravens expected to sign WR DeAndre Hopkins to one-year, $6M deal. (via @RapSheet) pic.twitter.com/POF3s4hV98

— NFL (@NFL) March 11, 2025

That didn't come to pass. Even on an offense missing its top two WRs (Rashee Rice and Marquise Brown) and with a mostly athletically washed Travis Kelce, Hopkins failed to surpass 15 PPR fantasy points in any of his remaining eight games of the season. He'll also be 33 years old before the 2025 season starts. He's lost much of his athleticism, and though he's not completely washed, he's declined significantly already.

He'll also join one of the most run-happy offenses in the league. It was especially alarming in the first few weeks of the season for Baltimore's pass-catchers. In Weeks 3-4, quarterback Lamar Jackson attempted just 15 and 18 passes, respectively.

This is the blueprint for what offensive coordinator Todd Monken would like to run if the defense held up. It didn't hold up, but in dominant blowout games, we could see RB Derrick Henry and Jackson doing all the heavy lifting with their legs.

What on earth is DeAndre Hopkins doing???

A top 50 WR in NFL history… pic.twitter.com/VkwtGeBaSE

— NFL Draft Files (@NFL_DF) February 10, 2025

He'll be the third-best pass-catching option, at best, behind WR Zay Flowers and tight end Mark Andrews. I think he might even be the fourth, behind WR Rashod Bateman as well. There is very little fantasy value to be had there and he'll likely be a rotational piece, getting a decent amount of playing time, but not enough to make any fantasy manager happy about starting him.

Javonte Williams, RB, Dallas Cowboys

The Cowboys let their RB1 from 2024, Rico Dowdle, walk in free agency. Then, the team's owner, president, and general manager made a move that rivals his idiotic trade for wide receiver Jonathan Mingo from the Carolina Panthers when he signed former Denver Broncos running back Javonte Williams to a one-year, $3 million deal.

The king of the most lukewarm possible free-agent signings of all time, Jerry Jones outdid himself by letting go of a promising back to bring in one who's been completely washed up by the destruction of his knee from a multi-ligament injury early in the 2022 season.

Cowboys signing RB Javonte Williams to one-year, $3M deal. (via @TomPelissero) pic.twitter.com/8QossdvnwZ

— NFL (@NFL) March 10, 2025

For Jones, he feels as if he's playing 5D chess in his mind by signing players who everyone else knows are bad, but he has some secret intel on that which tells him the player is underrated by the rest of the league. There's no other possible way to explain the trade for Mingo or the praise that they heaped on him. Like Mingo, Williams can't justify getting the ball in his hands.

Javonte Williams continues to run with undisciplined eyes and a touch of impatience. Ends up chasing space that disappears by the time he arrives, like a bad game of whack-a-mole. pic.twitter.com/rBH04QPzvD

— J Moyer (@JMoyerFB) September 29, 2021

Not only has he lost much of his burst, appearing to be extremely sluggish, with a poor top speed and mediocre acceleration, but he's not a very good decision-maker as a runner. The above X post describes the problems with his run game very well, and after over three full seasons in the NFL, it's unlikely that it will get any better.

Williams is good for running straight up the middle or bouncing it outside, only sometimes making the right reads, and occasionally breaking poor tackle attempts.

But Dallas doesn't have any RBs on its roster capable of justifying heavy workloads in 2025. Perhaps it plans to draft one of the many excellent incoming rookie backs from the 2025 NFL Draft class and have Williams serve as his primary backup, or perhaps in a committee. It would be blasphemy against the football gods to give Williams significant touches if it gets a good rookie, though.

Javonte Williams ranked in the bottom 5 among qualified RBs in (2024):

3.7 YPC
-0.20 EPA/attempt
33.1% rush success rate@JoshNorris | @HaydenWinks pic.twitter.com/WZftH7xC4r

— Underdog NFL (@Underdog__NFL) March 11, 2025

Both Mingo and Williams should probably be out of the league and probably would be if Jones wasn't the biggest genius ever. That was sarcastic.

Sam Darnold, QB, Seattle Seahawks

I'm not sure why the Seahawks thought it was a good idea to trade away quarterback Geno Smith and sign Sam Darnold in his place, though I believe that Smith wanted out of Seattle and the team honored his request. That's the only way I could justify that move anyway. Smith had the best season of his career film-wise, accounting for how poor the offensive line was.

Sam Darnold enters to applause at the VMAC. Full house here. pic.twitter.com/qsGSSjXsQW

— Brian Nemhauser (@hawkblogger) March 13, 2025

Darnold will now take a major downgrade in his situation. Formerly with the Minnesota Vikings, he had one of the league's best offensive lines, one of the best pass-catching groups, and one of the best play-callers and offensive coordinators/head coaches in Kevin O'Connell. He'll have none of those things with the Seahawks. I'm a believer in new OC Klint Kubiak, but not much else.

“HE’S HOLDING IT TOO LONG! THROW IT MAN!” -Paul Allen

Sam Darnold is sacked for the 5th time in 2 quarters

Called by Paul Allen and Pete Bercich for KFXN in Minneapolis: pic.twitter.com/YxtjXFcQ7e

— will: Riley Greene Truther (@wrhiv_72) January 14, 2025

The Detroit Lions and Los Angeles Rams, the Vikings' two final opponents in the 2024 season, figured out that if you pressure Darnold with a ton of blitzes, he panics and forgets how to play football, holding onto the ball for way too long and taking sack after sack, killing his team's drives and its ability to win football games, too. The Seahawks offensive line is also nowhere near as good as Minnesota's.

Seattle general manager John Schneider shouldn't have had his job this long because he consistently refuses to put together a good offensive line. Maybe he's delusional enough to think that Darnold can pull off the carry job Russell Wilson did in 2015, constantly escaping from pressure with elite mobility. Darnold just doesn't have that, though.

Sam Darnold sacked himself on third down #DENvsNYJ pic.twitter.com/ijIPSPhiDR

— Someone's An Idiot (@SomeonesAnIdiot) October 2, 2020

O'Connell's system in Minnesota makes solid quarterbacks look elite and bad QBs look solid. He's capable of carrying QBs on his shoulders. I'm not interested in Darnold and think the experiment will fail quickly, unless Kubiak is one of the best offensive coordinators in the league. I think that's possible.

But it doesn't help that, in addition to the bad OL, the team's only serviceable receiver is Jaxon Smith-Njigba. The Seahawks have a lot of problems to address in the 2025 NFL Draft and not enough picks to do it. I'm not sure WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling, who the team signed in free agency, will help a lot, either. So, I'll be avoiding Darnold in all leagues.

QB Aaron Rodgers

I don't know where he'll land, but he's a 41-year-old injury-prone QB who still tries to play like he's 25. There are no landing spots where he'll have a wide receiver corps like Garrett Wilson and Davante Adams with the Jets. Rodgers isn't interesting to me in any leagues. He's there to collect a huge paycheck, doesn't seem to want to adapt his ways, and should have retired after his Achilles tendon tear in 2023.

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