RADIO
A new fantasy football season is fast approaching. That means it’s time for managers to start preparing for their fantasy football drafts.
While much of the attention is focused on which players to target, it’s arguably more important to recognize which players you need to avoid. You don’t win your league on draft day, but you can certainly lose it. A few bad picks can crush your championship dreams before the season even begins.
Make sure you keep up to date with all your fantasy football needs by following RotoBaller on X and checking out RotoBaller.com. Let’s take a look at the all-bust team that’s filled with players you should avoid in your 2024 fantasy football draft.
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Stroud burst onto the scene as a rookie last year. He finished as the QB10 in fantasy points per game and genuinely looked the part as a franchise quarterback.
CJ Stroud with his 3rd Touchdown Pass of the 1st Half ‼️ @CJ7STROUD pic.twitter.com/rVzVZGzyzz
— Barstool Ohio State (@BarstoolOSU) January 13, 2024
His situation further improved when the Texans acquired former Buffalo Bills receiver Stefon Diggs in a trade. He joins Nico Collins and Tank Dell to form arguably the best receiving trio in the league. This sounds great, but it doesn’t change the fact that Stroud offers very little rushing upside.
For him to make a run at the overall QB1, Stroud would have to finish with close to 5,000 passing yards and 40+ passing touchdowns. It’s within the range of outcomes, but it’s not certain the Texans offense will go in that direction. The team also acquired former Cincinnati Bengals running back Joe Mixon to improve the ground game. The addition of Mixon (and signing him to a contract extension) shows the team wants more out of its ground attack and might not prefer a pass-happy approach.
Stroud is being selected as the QB5 off draft boards in FFPC leagues. He's going ahead of Anthony Richardson and Kyler Murray, both of whom present Konami upside at the position. They both can finish as the QB1 and arguably have an easier path than Stroud due to their rushing abilities. While we should expect improvement from Stroud in Year 2, the reality is that there are better bets for an overall QB1 finish.
RB- Josh Jacobs, Green Bay Packers
While Jacobs enjoyed a career year in 2022, his 2023 season was a disappointment. He finished as the RB28 one year removed from an RB3 finish. Even more troubling were some of Jacobs’ advanced metrics. He finished 45th in Next Gen Stats Rush Yards Over Expectation (RYOE), 41st in Rush Yards Over Expectation Per Attempt (RYOE/ATT), and 81st in Fantasy Points Data Suite’s Missed Tackles Forced Per Attempt (MTF/ATT). These are concerning marks. Outside of his 2022 season, Jacobs has never been a very efficient player.
The team also drafted rookie MarShawn Lloyd in the third round of the 2024 NFL Draft. Lloyd was one of the best backs in the class on pure talent, but he has a major fumbling problem. The Packers have stated that they see “shades of Aaron Jones” in Lloyd’s film. If that statement is true, it makes you wonder how the team views Jacobs.
Green Bay does have an out in Jacobs’ contract after this season. It can get out of the deal for only a $9 million dead cap hit. If he continues to struggle, Green Bay might give Lloyd an extended run with more touches. There’s just a little too much risk to recommend investing in Jacobs.
RB- Alvin Kamara, New Orleans Saints
Kamara enters his age-29 season fully entrenched as the team's starting running back. 2023 was another strong season as he finished as the overall RB12 in PPR leagues and was the RB3 in fantasy points per game (PPG).
ALVIN KAMARA TOUCHDOWN ‼️ pic.twitter.com/QkYBJtRlMD
— NFL Fantasy Football (@NFLFantasy) October 8, 2023
Despite the strong showing, he seems to be a player in decline. Kamara posted career lows in rushing yards, yards per reception (Y/R), and yards per target (Y/TGT). His advanced metrics also paint a grim picture.
Reminder- out of 49 RBs with 90+ carries Alvin Kamara ranked:
40th in @FantasyPtsData MTF/ATT
46th in @NextGenStats RYOE
47th in @PFF Elusive RatingHe seems to be a player in decline and is an easy fade in fantasy football drafts.
— Dave Ventresca (@FF_Stallion) June 26, 2024
Kamara still holds value in PPR leagues thanks to his work as a pass-catcher. Another strong fantasy finish is possible, but he appears to be on his last legs. Running backs can fall off the age cliff very fast and take fantasy gamers' championship dreams with them. Managers should look elsewhere to address the running back position.
WR- Nico Collins, Houston Texans
Collins enjoyed a breakout season in 2023 as he set career highs across the board. While he was a bargain in drafts last year, gamers now have to pay a premium for his services. It’s understandable as Collins’ play was incredible. His analytical profile was also off the charts. Per Fantasy Points Data Suite, his 3.37 yards per route run was second only to Tyreek Hill.
Complicating matters, though, Houston acquired the aforementioned Stefon Diggs in a trade this offseason. Second-year receiver Tank Dell is also set to return from a broken fibula that ended his rookie season. When both Dell and Collins were on the field, Dell appeared to be the team’s top option.
I love Nico Collins BUT…
In the 7 full games Nico & Tank Dell played where Dell was integrated & healthy…
Tank Dell was HOU’s WR1 pic.twitter.com/f70ppZ2phY
— Derek Brown (@DBro_FFB) April 2, 2024
Diggs now adds further target competition into the mix, and it’s unclear exactly how the available targets will be distributed among these three players. With an FFPC ADP of 37th overall, this price tag is just too expensive for a player who may not even be the top receiver on his own team.
WR- Cooper Kupp, Los Angeles Rams
Kupp’s 2023 season started on the wrong foot when an August hamstring injury landed him on injured reserve to start the year. When he returned, Kupp didn't seem like the same player. He averaged just under 62 yards per game, and this was his lowest mark since his rookie season. Now contending for targets with last year’s fantasy football MVP in Puka Nacua, it may be time for fantasy managers to adjust expectations.
It’s also hard to justify taking Kupp when you consider the downward trajectory he’s been on since 2021. He has struggled with injuries each of the last two seasons and turned 31 years old this summer. Kupp is hoping to finally shake the injury bug and return to his previous form.
Matthew Stafford (20) to Cooper Kupp (4)
Los Angeles Rams
62 yards
pic.twitter.com/wrqPwQlwkI— NFL TD Videos (@NFLTDsVideos) December 17, 2023
However, there’s an old rule when it comes to fantasy football. Old players who get hurt usually keep getting hurt. While it’s not unfathomable that Kupp can bounce back, gambling on a 31-year-old receiver who is struggling with injuries/declining play is typically not a wise bet.
TE- Dalton Kincaid, Buffalo Bills
After losing starting receivers Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis this offseason, it appeared that Kincaid’s role would expand in 2024. While many expect that to be the case, it may not necessarily happen. There are quite a few new additions to the receiving room and it’s unclear how it will all shake out. Buffalo added rookie Keon Coleman in April’s draft and signed veteran Curtis Samuel to a three-year, $24 million contract in free agency. Third-year pro Khalil Shakir is in the mix for targets as well.
There’s also a lot of overlap between Kincaid, Shakir, and Samuel in terms of usage/where they run their routes. All three players ran over 59% of their routes from the slot in 2023, according to Fantasy Points Data Suite. The Bills plan to use rookie Keon Coleman at the X receiver position, but he’s not a strong separator and such a move may not benefit his skill set. Should the team move Coleman inside, that presents even more of an issue for Kincaid.
There’s also the fact that his splits with and without fellow tight end Dawson Knox are concerning.
Dalton Kincaid (w/ Dawson Knox)
+60% route share
+14% target share (~TE18)
+7.5 FPG (~TE19)
+Buffalo ran 12 personnel 30% of the timeDalton Kincaid (w/out Dawson Knox)
+76% route share
+20% target share (~TE6)
+14.0 FPG (~TE4)
+Buffalo ran 12 personnel 4% of the timeBuffalo… https://t.co/0pRDDvKB5H
— Fantasy Points Data (@FantasyPtsData) June 23, 2024
While there’s a path to a Year 2 breakout, it’s murkier than some realize. There are better tight ends with fewer question marks available in fantasy drafts.
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