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One of the keys to a successful fantasy baseball draft, and a subsequently successful season, is finding players who outperform their draft position. By and large, you’re more likely to find those types of players later in drafts.
Sure, you’ll find those relatively early-round players who perform at an elite level – think Max Muncy or Vladimir Guerrero Jr. last year. But the real value is later in drafts where potential breakout picks can be found. Finding success with some, or even one of those mid-to-late round picks, can make a world of difference between winning a fantasy championship or missing the fantasy playoffs.
Today’s column will aim to help you identify some of those potential players. After covering the American League Central, American League East, and American League West in the last three installments, the story shifts to the National League, with the Senior Circuit’s easternmost division on tap. These players could very well help you find fantasy success in 2022.
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Miami Marlins: Edward Cabrera
The Miami Marlins are no stranger to employing fantasy breakout players who throw a baseball for a living. Just last season Trevor Rogers pitched to a 2.64 ERA in 133 innings while registering 157 strikeouts. The season before that, it was Pablo Lopez, who dazzled in the pandemic-shortened season with a 3.61 ERA and a 3.09 FIP in 57.1 frames of work. This year, it could be Edward Cabrera.
It’s no secret that Miami has a surplus of young arms. That’s great for their future, whether those pitchers go through their pre-arbitration and arbitration years in a Marlins uniform or are traded for Major League upgrades to supplement the remaining starters and the rest of Miami’s young core.
Rogers, speculatively speaking, probably isn’t going anywhere. However, if Miami moves one of Sandy Alcantara, Pablo Lopez, Elieser Hernandez, Jesus Luzardo or, Zach Thompson, it could open up a rotation spot for Cabrera.
The 23-year-old only made seven starts for Don Mattingly’s club last season, but was a strikeout machine in the minors, racking up 92 punchouts in 61.1 frames at three different stops.
The right-hander’s two best offerings are his four-seam fastball and his slider.
The former, which was hit around a bit (not uncommon for a rookie) didn’t disappoint from a velocity standpoint, averaging 96.7 MPH. The latter didn’t disappoint from a performance standpoint.
It’s a small sample size to be sure, but opponents hit just .083 with a .167 slugging percentage and a .281 wOBA against Cabrera’s slider, which also generated a 39.6% whiff rate.
He’s by no means a finished product, but if you’re looking for a starting pitcher in the late rounds of drafts who has the ceiling to produce like Trevor Rogers did last year, Edward Cabrera is your guy.
Philadelphia Phillies: Alec Bohm
A popular breakout pick prior to last season, Bohm struggled mightily in 2021, batting .247 with a .305 on-base percentage, seven home runs, four stolen bases, and a 75 wRC+ in 417 plate appearances.
However, despite the struggles, the corner infielder did rather well against left-handed opposition, hitting .289 with a .358 on-base percentage, a .796 OPS, and a 149 ISO against southpaws. And that type of production could help him stake claim to a consistent role in the Philadelphia lineup next season.
Should Dombrowski and the Phillies make a splash on the free-agent (or trade) market and add an impact middle infielder, it could push Didi Gregorious to third base, a position where Bohm is one of the favorites to start next season.
At face value, that might be a death knell for Bohm’s fantasy prospects next season.
However, considering Gregorious struggled against left-handed pitchers last season (.156 average, .264 on-base percentage, and a 53 wRC+ in 106 plate appearances) a Bohm/Gregorious platoon could actually be advantageous for the win-now Phillies.
That Bohm could also see the occasional start at first base (where he’s eligible in Yahoo! leagues) doesn’t hurt either, especially if the designated hitter is introduced in the National League and the Phillies use Rhys Hoskins at that position for more than just for the odd start.
Platoon bats aren’t the flashiest draft picks in fantasy baseball, but in the right situations (for the players) and fantasy leagues (for the managers) they can be awfully valuable.
That’s Bohm's floor right now, but if he can improve against right-handed pitching (and simply improve at the plate) you’re looking at a potential regular in a quality lineup that shouldn’t struggle to score runs.
New York Mets: Luis Guillorme
The Mets are a lot like their division rivals in Philadelphia. They’ve got a veteran roster coming off an underachieving season. They’re more likely to fill any needs with trades or free agents than internal options.
Where they differ just a bit is that New York doesn’t have a young, potential breakout pick with the ceiling that Bohm does.
You could make the case right now that New York is the only team in the league without a potential breakout player in fantasy baseball given their roster construction.
Digging deeper into New York’s roster, however, one player who could have a chance at breaking out, to a degree, in fantasy is infielder Luis Guillorme.
Guillorme may not have the ceiling of a player (in fantasy or real life) as Bohm, but he’ll be a useful late-round pick in deeper leagues, especially if the Mets don’t re-sign or replace at least one of Michael Conforto or Javier Baez.
Should Conforto follow Noah Syndergaard out the exit door at Citi Field, the Mets could move J.D. Davis or Jeff McNeil to the outfield more often to take his place.
If that happens, it’ll open up more playing time for Guillorme, who can play third base, second base, and shortstop. And with that playing time, like clockwork, will come a bunch of walks.
In 368 career plate appearances, Guillorme has a 12.8% walk rate and a .356 on-base percentage. His walk rate was 14.7% last season, the same exact number it was during the pandemic-shortened season.
He’s not going to hit for much power (two career home runs), nor is he going to provide much in the way of stolen bases (he’s got three of those since debuting in the Majors), but the infielder has some fantasy value.
Now, that fantasy value might only come in deeper leagues where on-base percentage is part of the scoring, but it’s fantasy value all the same. And for a player who just registered a career-high in plate appearances with 156 last season, he could be poised for a breakout season if the opportunity is there in the Mets infield.
Atlanta Braves: Cristian Pache
As of this point in the offseason, Atlanta has yet to replace all the veteran outfielders who helped them secure a World Series title this fall.
Joc Pederson. Eddie Rosario. Jorge Soler.
Of course, Adam Duvall is still around via arbitration eligibility, and Ronald Acuna Jr. will eventually return. But if the defending champs don’t add another outfielder this offseason, it could finally be Pache’s time to shine for the National League East club.
Long one of the game’s elite prospects, Pache has made a name for himself with his glovework in center field. However, he has intriguing power and speed upside. And while questions about if he can get on base consistently are fair, they’re not quite as prominent when regarding Pache as a fantasy player.
Even if Pache is around or even slightly below league average in terms of both batting average (.244) and on-base percentage (.317) he could provide solid value in fantasy thanks to that power and speed upside, which could net him double-digit steals and home runs given consistent plate appearances.
Of course, the big question is whether Atlanta adds another outfielder or not. But with stolen bases at such a premium in fantasy baseball, Pache could be a valuable addition to your fantasy team in 2022.
That is if Atlanta doesn’t add another outfielder.
Washington Nationals: Keibert Ruiz
Blocked in the Los Angeles Dodgers organization by Will Smith, Keibert Ruiz finally gets the catcher position all to himself, only this time it's with the Washington Nationals.
Dealt to the Nats as the centerpiece of the seismic Max Scherzer and Trea Turner blockbuster, Ruiz will finally start full time in the Majors, and if his late-season debut with Washington was any indication, we’re looking at a potentially productive fantasy backstop.
In 89 plate appearances, Ruiz hit .284 with a .348 on-base percentage, two home runs, and a walk rate (6.7%) that topped his strikeout rate (4.5%).
And while it’s highly unlikely that Ruiz continues to go down on strikes less than five percent of the time – for reference, Pittsburgh infielder Kevin Newman had the lowest strikeout rate among qualified hitters at 7.4% last season–low strikeouts totals are nothing new for Ruiz.
The 23-year-old has never struck out more than 14.5% of the time at any minor league stop. The low strikeouts are going to lead to more contact for Ruiz, a player with a promising hit tool as one of his calling cards.
He might not be the home run masher that a catcher like Salvador Perez or Eric Haase is, but Ruiz looks like a decent bet to reach double-digit home runs.
If the Nationals’ new catcher can hit anywhere above .260 with double-digit home runs, we’re looking at a potential top-10 catcher in fantasy baseball at a position that falls off a bit after big names like Smith, Perez, Yasmani Grandal, J.T. Realmuto, Isiah Kiner-Falefa, Willson Contreras and Mike Zunino.
Hitting ahead of or behind Juan Soto shouldn’t hurt Ruiz’s ability to put up stats like RBI and runs scored either.
If you’re of the mind to wait on a catcher until later in drafts next spring, Ruiz is someone to keep in mind.
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