RADIO
We are officially just four days away from the first regular season games of the new NBA season! At this point, most of your drafts are probably done with some still to come right up until the first game tips off. For those that do still need to draft, we want to help you prepare for the 2022-23 fantasy basketball season!
You may recognize this format if you play fantasy football. Here on RotoBaller, we had a series during the NFL preseason that followed this same outline. The point of this series is to show several players on every team that is either great value or being drafted too high compared to their ADP this preseason.
Today, we're going to take a look at the 2022-23 Toronto Raptors and identify the breakouts, busts, and locks for this fantasy season!
Fantasy Basketball Breakout: Scottie Barnes
This seems to be a pick that many people also see coming. The Scottie Barnes train is going full steam ahead and everyone is welcome aboard!
During his Rookie of the Year winning season, he was already averaging 15.3 points, 7.5 rebounds, 3.5 assists, and 1.1 steals per game while shooting 49.2% overall and 30.1% from three. Those kinds of numbers from a rookie power forward are enough to make a fantasy manager salivate.
Going into his second season, there's been talk about him getting more opportunities in the point guard role. Nick Nurse even said that he was going to give him more looks to run the offense and has voiced his confidence in Barnes. That means a higher usage than his 19.0% from last year.
He's going to get a lot of run in a plethora of positions for Toronto. According to basketball-reference, he had time at everything from shooting guard to center. After a full offseason of working on his shooting, conditioning, and playmaking, he's primed to build on thirteen double-doubles in a season and his 15% assist percentage. More opportunities, a fast-paced and good defensive team, and his work ethic are all going to combine for a big fantasy season.
Fantasy Basketball Bust: OG Anunoby
If I had a dollar for every season that someone said this was going to be the big breakout year for Anunoby, I'd have four bucks. Yes, that equates to every season since his rookie year.
Don't get me wrong, Anunoby has made some big strides in his game since his first year in 2017-18. The issue is that his health in each season continues to decline at the same rate. The last time he played 50 or more games was 2019-20 and the last time he actually played 70 or more was only his rookie year. This trend is very worrisome especially because a couple of his injuries are recurring ones in the same areas.
According to Basketball Monster's per-game player rankings, Anunoby was 52nd which was right around the likes of Damian Lillard, CJ McCollum, John Collins, and Tyrese Maxey. In the total stat rankings, however, he was ranked 136 and 108th the year before. That put him in a 12th-round value along with Immanuel Quickley, Patrick Beverly, Grayson Allen, and Duncan Robinson.
Adding on top of that, his preseason didn't look too promising. In four games, he shot 9.1% from three and added 8.0 points and 2.3 rebounds per game. So, at his current ADP of 58th, you're most likely receiving a player that is actually going to end up ranked in the 100s. I may not be an economics expert, but that doesn't seem like a great return on investment.
Fantasy Basketball Locks: Fred VanVleet and Pascal Siakam
There's not much downside at all to drafting either one of these guys. These two are the undisputed leaders of the Raptors and they're going to continue in that role even with Scottie Barnes getting a bit more of the reins.
Siakam continues to improve in at least one stat every season since he's been in the league. After missing the first 10 games last year, he went on to average 22.8 points, 8.5 rebounds, 5.3 assists, and 1.3 steals per game while hitting 49.4% of his shots. That kind of production from a guy that has center eligibility in most fantasy apps is of incredible value. The defensive stats to go along with his offensive production will keep anyone happy in any fantasy format as well!
Then, there's the floor general, Fred VanVleet. The 28-year-old point guard finished last season in 21st on the Basketball Monster total value rankings. That rank is even better in terms of per-game value which is 14th.
He's fresh off of his first All-Star season and has gained even more confidence in leading the team ever since the departure of Kyle Lowry. Threes, points, assists, and steals are all on the gourmet fantasy menu from Chef VanVleet. He attempted 9.9 threes per game last season and knocked them down at a 37.7% clip. That's not even to mention his 20.3 points, 6.7 assists, 4.4 rebounds, and 1.7 steals per game as well.
I'll sweeten the pot even more by pointing out that Siakam and VanVleet were first and second in the league in minutes per game!
Conclusion
Toronto is a well-coached playoff-contending team that provides both offensive and defensive value at almost every position. Nick Nurse depends on his starting five more than any other coach. That makes drafting someone from their top five even more important. The same five players all averaged double-digit points and over a steal per game.
While a lot of others are still high on the stats that OG Anunoby can provide as one of those starting five players, he still gives a lot of doubts about his health. Not mentioned above, Precious Achiuwa and Chris Boucher can give enough production for managers in deeper leagues. For those that may be in dynasty leagues, Christian Koloko is worth a look as well!
That being said, the Raptors are a super fun team to watch and will give you great entertainment value to go along with your fantasy value.
