Fantasy Basketball Breakouts, Busts, And Locks - Phoenix Suns 2023 Outlook

After being dispatched in six games in the second round by the eventual champion Denver Nuggets, the Suns and new owner Mat Ishbia decided it was time to make a big splash. The Suns were involved in a pair of blockbuster three-team trades this offseason, highlighted by the departures of Chris Paul and Deandre Ayton and the arrivals of Bradley Beal, Jusuf Nurkic, and Grayson Allen. This team made major moves in pursuit of a championship, but how does that shake out in the realm of fantasy basketball?

If you play fantasy football, you'll probably recognize the format here as we had a series of preseason NFL articles that followed the same outline. The idea here is to hone in on players from each team that we see as undervalued for the upcoming season or who are possibly being drafted too high this preseason.

In this piece, you'll find a fantasy basketball breakout candidate, a fantasy basketball bust candidate, and a fantasy basketball lock (think steady production and being drafted correctly) for the Phoenix Suns based on early ADP for fantasy basketball drafts for the 2023-2024 season. Be sure to follow me on Twitter / X (@Maxadelphia) for more fantasy basketball insight (amongst other things).

Fantasy Basketball Breakout: Devin Booker

Toward the end of the last regular season, Booker started to see an increase in responsibility to initiate the Suns' offense, even with Chris Paul healthy. Then, Paul got hurt in Game 2 in the second-round series against the Nuggets, and it was all Booker from there.

The Suns played 11 postseason games last year; 6.5 games with Paul, and 4.5 without him. Booker led the team in assists in seven of those 11 games, four of which were games where Paul was his starting backcourt partner. In addition, the Suns made absolutely NO effort to bolster their PG depth and included in all of their summer wheeling and dealing was backup PG Cam Payne, so it looks like this team is Booker's to command.

The Suns' limited preseason action until this point indicates that Booker will be orchestrating this offense. In my opinion, Booker should be the first Sun off the board in fantasy drafts and is a dark horse MVP candidate this year.

Devin Booker - Back To Back To Back.

1. Elbow into PnR - engages Ayton & hits Nurkic on roll.

2. Same play - corner defender rotates early this time to stop roll, so just skips to corner shooter instead.

3. PnR same spot again - Nurkic re-screens, Booker rejects. Cash. pic.twitter.com/V62YyPn0eC

— David (@theIVpointplay) October 13, 2023

 

Fantasy Basketball Bust: Bradley Beal

I think there are a lot of red flags with Beal's fantasy profile this year, and he'll be someone I personally look to avoid.

Entering his 11th season, Beal's projected role for his team is vastly different. He'll be the Suns' #3 option behind Booker and Kevin Durant, a role he hasn't been in since the early stages of his career. Throughout recent history, we've seen players struggling in the transition from the alpha of an offense to a third option who doesn't shoot the ball as frequently. Frank Vogel is a good coach, but with a new coach and a largely fresh roster, I wouldn't be surprised at all to see the Suns have some growing pains.

No doubt Beal is a gifted scorer, but scoring has always been the cornerstone of his game. Assuming he sees a notable decrease in shots attempted, it's only reasonable to expect his fantasy output to decrease as well. Beal was touted as a good defender coming out of Florida, so there's a chance a lighter offensive workload can help his defensive numbers, but he's never really had elite steal numbers in the NBA.

I think Beal will be a good fit for this Suns roster in terms of the real, on-court product; but for fantasy, I don't see the numbers to justify a borderline top-50 pick.

Fantasy Basketball Lock: Jusuf Nurkic

Nurkic will be replacing Deandre Ayton in the Suns' starting five, and while he doesn't share Ayton's ability to block shots, he does fit a similar role offensively.

He'll be in the pick-and-roll with Devin Booker, and he'll be tasked with grabbing offensive rebounds. Now that's a pretty solid role to have. Nurkic's career average of 2.5 offensive rebounds per game is right in line with the 2.6 Ayton has averaged for the past two seasons. As for the PnR, he's been making some great passes as the roll man, which isn't really a skill he's showcased throughout his career (career average of 2.5 per game).

Nurkic has looked solid in the few preseason games the Suns have played so he might be creeping up on his current mid-ninth-round ADP, but in my eyes, he's firmly a top-100 fantasy player when healthy. If he can stay healthy, he profiles as a major late-round value piece, being the lone big man on what figures to be one of the NBA's best offenses and potentially one of the best teams.

Here's over a minute of Jusuf Nurkić picking teams apart with his passing out of the short roll and after posting up switches, something he'll be able to help the Suns with A LOT this season: pic.twitter.com/O9ZOTnV0Z7

— Jason Timpf (@_JasonLT) October 7, 2023

Conclusion

The Suns shook things up in a major way over the summer. Between announcing their free streaming platform, moving on from CP3 and Ayton, and creating a new NBA Big 3 of Booker, Durant, and Beal, there was no shortage of conversation topics around this team during the offseason. There's no doubt about it: it's title or bust for Phoenix.

For fantasy, the Suns seem to have more questions than answers: Will Devin Booker be an effective PG, and if not, what will be done to address the need? Will Bradley Beal be able to adjust to a role that doesn't have him taking 20+ shots per game as he has for the last six years? Who will see meaningful bench minutes besides Grayson Allen?

As I mentioned, I think the Suns will suffer some growing pains, but make no mistake; this team has a core good enough to make a deep run. Keep an eye on the Suns' rotations early in the year, things seem to be very much up in the air still, and there figure to be quality early-season streaming options available.

Thanks for reading and good luck in your leagues this year!

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