Adam Koffler's Breakout Players to Target in Fantasy Basketball Drafts

After two irregular NBA seasons affected by the COVID-19 Pandemic, we finally have a "semi-normal" 82-game 2021-22 season on the horizon. That also means fantasy basketball is right around the corner!

In my inaugural column, I'll highlight a few players I'm expecting to break out and take the league by storm this season. More than likely, these guys are undervalued by the consensus and can be had for pennies on the dollar in fantasy drafts.

Don't miss out on drafting these players before they explode onto the scene.

OG Anunoby, Toronto Raptors

We've seen flashes of potential from Anunoby in his first four seasons with the Toronto Raptors. That culminated in his best season yet in 2020-21, when he averaged career-highs in points (15.9), 3PM (2.4), rebounds (5.5), assists (2.2), steals (1.5), and minutes (33.3) per game. And those numbers came in a year Anunoby dealt with a calf strain the majority of the season. For all intents and purposes, he wasn't healthy last season, and he still performed admirably. And he got better after the All-Star break.

Prior to the break, Anunoby was averaging a modest 13.3 points, 5.5 rebounds, and 1.7 assists. Those numbers aren't terrible, but they're also nothing to write home about. Danilo Gallinari, Kyle Kuzma, and Keldon Johnson had similar production a season ago. But after taking some time to heal, he came back refreshed and took advantage of Kyle Lowry, Fred VanVleet, and Pascal Siakam being in and out of the lineup down the stretch. In his last 19 healthy games, Anunoby averaged 19.1 points (3.0 3PM), 5.5 rebounds, 2.8 assists, 1.5 steals, 0.7 blocks, and just 1.7 turnovers in 34.1 minutes per game. For the season, he shot 48% from the field and a career-high 78.4% from the free-throw line. The post-All-Star break production more closely resembled Jaylen Brown than it did Gallinari, Kuzma, and Johnson.

With Lowry now in Miami and Siakam recovering from offseason shoulder surgery, Anunoby has a golden opportunity to build on his success from the second half of last season. With both Lowry and Siakam off the floor, Anunoby saw his usage % jump up to 25.1%, a 5.1% increase from when he shared the floor with the two stars. I fully expect Anunoby and Fred VanVleet to have heavy usage, especially early in the season prior to Siakam's return (expected to miss at least a month). Oh, and have you seen his career trajectory? It is eerily similar to that of five-time NBA All-Star Kawhi Leonard.

Derrick White, San Antonio Spurs

DeMar DeRozan and LaMarcus Aldridge are gone, and the Spurs didn't bring in any high-usage free agents in the offseason. They selected Joshua Primo with their first round pick in the 2021 NBA Draft, but he wasn't much of a scorer at Alabama. If one thing is abundantly clear, it's that this San Antonio team will run its offense through Derrick White and Dejounte Murray. Both guys were phenomenal last season, but White played in just 36 games as he dealt with both foot and ankle injuries.

There's not much of a sample size for White playing without DeRozan, but he did play six games without him a season ago. He played 30+ minutes in just two of those games, but that's what we'll focus on as he's almost guaranteed to play minutes in the mid-30s this season. In those two games, he averaged 21.5 points (2.0 3PM), 5.5 rebounds, 6.5 assists, 0.5 steals, 2.5 blocks, and just one turnover.

Again, this is an extremely small sample size, but it's what we have to go off of. In all games, when both DeRozan and Aldridge were off the floor last season, White saw his usage rate increase by a staggering 4.7% up to a team-high 27.7%. Meanwhile, Murray's usage rate stayed exactly the same at 23.5%.

People may be scared off by White's 41.1% FG last season, but rest assured that number could come up a bit, closer to his career average of 45.2%. The increase in shot volume may keep that number in the low 40's, but White won't hurt you in very many categories. In fact, he's fantastic across the board and provides value in a category that most guards don't. Last season, he averaged 1.4 blocks per-36 minutes. That's unheard of for a 6'4" guard. He also drained 2.9 threes per-36 minutes and shot 85.1% from the free-throw line. He also turned the ball over just 1.3 times per game. That's insane -- high-usage guards aren't supposed to turn the ball over just 1.3 times per game.

While I expect Murray to be a really nice fantasy asset this season, White is the San Antonio guard with the real breakout potential. And he's being ranked much lower by the consensus. Time to prove yourself, Derrick White!

Jaren Jackson Jr., Memphis Grizzlies

It's easy to look at JJJ's stat line last season and completely dismiss him heading into the 2021-22 NBA season. I strongly urge you not to do that. Recall, Jackson tore his meniscus in the bubble during the 2019-20 season. Prior to that, he had been playing some very good basketball in his sophomore season. Prior to the shutdown, JJJ was averaging 17.4 points (2.5 3PM), 4.6 rebounds, 1.4 assists, 0.7 steals, 1.6 blocks, and just 1.7 turnovers in 28.5 minutes per game.

Why was the 4th overall pick in 2018 only playing 28.5 minutes per game? Well, Jackson averaged a league-high 4.1 personal fouls per game that season. He was the only player to average over four personal fouls per game, thus limiting his minutes and subsequently his upside. What's crazy is that this might just be his biggest hurdle to overcome this season. If he can even get below 3.5 personal fouls per game, we could be talking about a monster of a season.

The Grizzlies replaced Jonas Valanciunas with Steven Adams in the offseason. JV averaged 17.1 points and 12.5 rebounds per game for the Grizzlies last season, compared to Adams who averaged 7.6 points and 8.9 rebounds. As you can see, there should be more scoring opportunities and possibly rebounds up for grabs for the frontcourt, and that includes Jackson.

JJJ stands 6'11" tall and is an above-average three-point shooter. In 2019-20, he shot 39.4% from distance, making 2.5 three-pointers per contest. That dropped to 28.3% a season ago, but that was in just 11 games. I'm expecting his shooting percentages to regress back to the mean. He's also a menace on the defensive end of the floor. In those 11 games last season, he averaged 2.7 steals + blocks per game. For his career, he's averaging 3.1 steals + blocks per-36 minutes. Granted he has only averaged 27 minutes per game throughout his career as a result of the foul trouble, but again, the hope is that he can stay on the floor more this season.

Teammate Ja Morant had this to say about Jaren Jackson Jr. heading into the 2021-22 season:

"To me, personally, I think he’s No. 1 [breakout player] if he’s healthy. He’s been battling some injuries that set him back. A healthy Jaren is definitely the number one breakout player this season. He’s just a special talent that’s gifted. He’s 7-foot-1, can shoot the three, can put it on the floor, and can play inside. He does so much on the floor. As long as he stays healthy, which we need him to be, he’s definitely number one."

If you're planning to utilize the punt-assists strategy in H2H 9-category leagues, JJJ becomes even more valuable. Just like OG Anunoby and Derrick White, you'll want to make sure Jaren Jackson Jr. is on your fantasy basketball team this season.

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