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Welcome RotoBallers to another edition of fantasy baseball trade targets. In this piece, we will look at several players and identify if we should buy low or sell high on them in fantasy. For the sake of this article, we will try to go through new players every week. But outfielders like Julio Rodriguez and Cody Bellinger are two options I am still trying to buy low on at the beginning of May.
At this point in the season, trades are the No. 1 way to upgrade your team. Whether you buy low on superstar players or sell high on players off to great starts, trading can make a huge difference for your fantasy team. As a matter of fact, every fantasy manager should be looking to make trades, especially with injuries likely piling up on your roster.
So, without further ado, here are five players you should be looking to buy low or sell high on in fantasy heading into Week 6 of the fantasy season (May 6 to May 12). As always, if you have any additional questions, you can reach out to me on X (@joeypollizze).
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Undervalued Players to Trade for
SS Corey Seager, Texas Rangers
Texas Rangers shortstop Corey Seager kicks off this list, and he is someone I am actively looking to trade for. Despite the slow start, it won't be easy to acquire Seager, considering he finished as the American League MVP runner-up in 2023. However, if his rough one-month stretch has any fantasy manager panicking, do all you can to trade for him.
Seager has surely struggled to begin the year, hitting just .219 with two home runs and eight RBI through the first 29 games. In his first 29 games of the 2023 season, the Rangers shortstop was hitting .336 with six HRs and 29 RBI. So, this slow start is obviously a different territory for him. Don't let that push you away, though, from giving up multiple players to acquire him.
Seager might be off to a dreadful start, but most of his metrics rank in the top half of the league. His expected batting average (.266) is 47 points higher than his actual batting average (.219), which means the shortstop has gotten a little bit unlucky at the plate in the early going. His expected slugging (.474), barrel rate (10.1%), and sweet spot rate (38.2%) also rank pretty well among the league.
Corey Seager said that all he can do is keep working his way out of a 3-for-41 funk. He said nothing is wrong with him physically. "I just think I'm not getting enough hits," he said. #Rangers
— Jeff Wilson (@JeffWilsonTXR) May 2, 2024
Things will eventually even out for the four-time All-Star, so acquire him now before he starts to get hot at the plate. Again, it won't be easy by any means to acquire a talent like Seager. But, it's certainly worth a try, given his upside and talent in a great offense.
OF Randy Arozarena, Tampa Bay Rays
The next player fantasy managers should be looking to acquire is Tampa Bay Rays outfielder Randy Arozarena. Arozarena should be way easier to trade for than Seager, and there's a good chance you can get him at a significant discount after a dreadful start to the 2024 season.
The 29-year-old is hitting just .139 at the plate with three HRs and nine RBI through 31 games. The slow start is a little worrisome because the Rays offense has not been great, and almost all of his metrics rank in the bottom half of the league. His expected batting average (.201), sweet spot rate (24.4%), and whiff rate (34.6%) all rank in the bottom 8%.
However, his slow start to the year isn't totally uncommon for him. In 2022, Arozarena was hitting .204 with zero HRs, four stolen bases, and six RBI in the first month of the season. He started to heat up in May, though, and finished the year with a .263 average, 20 HRs, 89 RBI, 41 doubles, and 32 stolen bases.
The Rays slugger is one of the most talented outfielders in the game, and he has totaled at least 20 HRs and 20 stolen bases in three straight seasons. So, you should be looking to buy him now because it's only a matter of time before he starts to heat up at the plate.
3B Alex Bregman, Houston Astros
For the second consecutive year, Houston Astros third baseman Alex Bregman has gotten off to a poor start. In 2023, Bregman was hitting .201 with four HRs, 16 RBI, and four doubles through the first 38 games. This season, he is hitting .200 at the plate with one home run, 10 RBI, and five doubles through 29 games.
Bregman's slow start surely has fantasy managers feeling uneasy. If that's the case in your league, look to trade for him now while his value is this low. The 30-year-old will eventually pick it up, and when he does, you would have already acquired him for a cheap price. The Astros third baseman has hit at least 23 HRs and 90 RBI in back-to-back seasons, so expect his bat to heat up very shortly.
Alex Bregman rockets out his first homer of the year! 🚀 pic.twitter.com/NJxiWpQ3ml
— MLB (@MLB) May 1, 2024
March/April is also easily the worst month of Bregman's career at the plate. His .248 average, 18 HRs, and 77 runs scored are the fewest in any month, while his best stats have come in August and September. He has hit 33 HRs with 139 RBI in August over his career and 34 HRs with 119 RBI in September/October.
As a result, you should be looking to buy him now. His .260 career average in May is also the second best in any month, so the time might be ticking to acquire him.
Overvalued Players to Trade Away
OF Jurickson Profar, San Diego Padres
San Diego Padres outfielder Jurickson Profar has been red hot out of the gate. He is currently hitting .342 with four HRs, 21 RBI, and eight doubles in the first 34 games. The switch-hitter is also arguably coming off his best game of the season, going 4-for-4 with two RBI on Wednesday against the Cincinnati Reds.
There are not many negative things to say about Profar at this point in the year. He is absolutely smashing the ball right now, which has certainly helped his fantasy value. The outfielder is ranked inside the top 25 among all position players in most Yahoo leagues in the early going.
However, he is someone I am looking to sell high in fantasy right away. It's been a surprise to see Profar hitting the ball this well to begin the season, so regression is surely expected. Don't forget, though, the 31-year-old outfielder hasn't hit 20 HRs or driven in more than 65 runs since 2019.
Jurickson Profar's 2024 stats 📊
.342 AVG
21 RBI
.953 OPSProfar is 15-30 over his last 8 games 🔥 pic.twitter.com/pfjYGFnPdx
— MLB Network (@MLBNetwork) May 3, 2024
Maybe this year is different, and Profar finally puts together a strong campaign from start to finish. But, I'd rather trade him while his value is this high and get a star player -- who is not off to a great start like Arozarena -- in return for a package deal.
SP Seth Lugo, Kansas City Royals
Kansas City Royals starting pitcher Seth Lugo has been one of the biggest surprises so far this season. Lugo is 5-1 with a 1.60 ERA and 31 strikeouts across 45 innings pitched. The right-hander has quietly been one of the best starters in baseball this year with multiple dominant outings.
He has delivered a quality start in six of his seven outings in 2024 and is coming off seven strong innings of one-run ball with eight strikeouts against the Toronto Blue Jays on May 1. That was Lugo's third start of the year in which he threw at least seven innings. That has surely raised the veteran's fantasy value in the first month of the season, as his rostership has shot up to 75% in Yahoo leagues.
However, the metrics suggest that Lugo has gotten a little bit lucky in the early going. His expected ERA (.412), expected batting average against (.257), average exit velocity (89 mph), and strikeout rate (17.6%) all rank in the bottom half of the league. That means some rough performances could be on the horizon for the 34-year-old starter. If you currently own the Royals pitcher in fantasy, see what you can get for him while his value is this high.
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