RADIO
We are still at the point in the MLB season where fantasy managers will overreact to almost anything. However, we have to realize that it's a long season, and there will be plenty of ups and downs from players throughout the fantasy campaign.
That's why a player like Julio Rodriguez was on my buy-low list last week. Rodriguez had a .186 batting average with zero home runs and five RBI through the first 16 games. That was the perfect time to buy him, though, because the All-Star is now hitting .400 with one home run and five RBI over the past eight contests.
It's hard not to overreact when a player is slumping at the plate. Nevertheless, patience is sometimes key at this point of the fantasy season. So, let's dive in and take a look at five players you should be looking to buy low or sell high in Week 5.
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Undervalued Players to Trade for
OF Corbin Carroll, Arizona Diamondbacks
There's no doubt that Arizona Diamondbacks outfielder Corbin Carroll is off to a rough start in 2024. He is batting just .208 with one home run, five RBI, and eight stolen bases across 24 games. Manager Torey Lovullo has even dropped Carroll down in the batting order, most recently hitting him seventh in Wednesday's series finale against the St. Louis Cardinals.
All this certainly has fantasy managers panicking early on. But if you are one of those owners who don't have Carroll on your roster, see what you need to give up to acquire him. Chances are you can get him at a significant discount because of his extremely slow start.
Important to remain patient w/ #Dbacks OF Corbin Carroll (April: 6-game hit streak, hits in 12 of 17 games), but the overall numbers aren't there (.216, .603 OPS, 3 XBH, 5 RBI, 14 BB, 14 K).
Small sample size in '24, but big change Batting Run Value, Avg. Exit Velo & Hard Hit % pic.twitter.com/3lTTy5HwvA
— Arizona Diamondbacks | Stats & Info (@DbacksStatsInfo) April 22, 2024
There's not a whole lot going right for the reigning National League Rookie of the Year this season. His expected batting average (.229), average exit velocity (83.4 mph), hard-hit rate (24.1%), and sweet-spot rate (21.5%) all rank in the bottom half of the league. However, just like Rodriguez in last week's buy-low article, I am going to bet on the talent of Carroll and assume he will figure it out.
Even if the home run numbers remain down from 2023, his ability to get on base and steal bases should help his fantasy value over the year. It might be tough to believe in him now, but he should pick it up as the season progresses.
OF Seiya Suzuki, Chicago Cubs
Chicago Cubs outfielder Seiya Suzuki (oblique) is someone fantasy managers should be looking to acquire while he is on the 10-day injured list. With injuries piling up for every fantasy team, look to see if the Suzuki owner is dealing with a bunch of injured players. If that's the case, see what you can get for the 29-year-old, who is set to miss around four weeks with an oblique injury he suffered on April 14.
Based on the early reports, Suzuki is still around three weeks away from returning, at the earliest. As a result, you could acquire him at a discount. That's why buying low on him now could make a lot of sense, especially after starting the season red-hot. The Japanese native is hitting .305 with three HRs, 15 RBI, and four doubles across 15 games.
Fantasy managers might not have many other opportunities to acquire a hitter like Suzuki on their fantasy roster, so jump on that opportunity right away. The Cubs outfielder also ranks in the top half of the league in average exit velocity (94.7 mph), hard-hit rate (53.7%), and expected slugging (.450) in the early going. Even though he is currently on the IL, now is the right time to trade for him.
1B Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Toronto Blue Jays
It has been hard to watch Vladimir Guerrero Jr. on offense at times this season. He entered Thursday's game with a .219 batting average, three home runs, nine RBI, and 22 strikeouts across 25 games. That start surely has fantasy managers panicking in the first month of the season.
However, Guerrero has gotten a little bit unlucky at the plate so far in 2024. His expected batting average (.272) is 53 points higher than his actual batting average (.219). The slugging first baseman also ranks in the top half of the league in several categories, including average exit velocity (92.3 mph), hard-hit rate (52.7%), and walk rate (13.4%).
"Last year, there was some element of 'What's going on with the way he's hitting the ball?' This year, I feel like there's some bad luck tied in."@DownToBlack & @BlakeMurphyODC discuss Vlad Guerrero Jr.'s underwhelming results despite elite advanced metrics.#TOTHECORE pic.twitter.com/3gJHAM2Flr
— Sportsnet 590 The FAN (@FAN590) April 23, 2024
Of course, Guerrero has had some woes in the first 25 games, but it is a great sign to see him hitting the ball hard this early in the year. Eventually, that will even out as the warmer weather hits. That's why now is the perfect time to acquire him before he gets on a roll at the plate. Another 30-home run, 100-RBI season certainly seems attainable for the 25-year-old.
Overvalued Players to Trade Away
SP Jared Jones, Pittsburgh Pirates
This one might make some fantasy managers a little upset. However, if you currently own Pittsburgh Pirates starting pitcher Jared Jones in fantasy, I would see what you can get for him.
There are not many negative things to say about Jones' start to the season. He has a 2.79 ERA and 39 strikeouts across 29 innings pitched to begin his MLB career. The 22-year-old has also delivered at least seven strikeouts in all his starts and has the most whiffs (98) through five career starts in the pitch-tracking era. To sum it up quite easily, the right-hander has been almost untouchable on the mound for the Pirates.
But the one thing that worries me is a potential innings limit. If Pittsburgh is out of the playoff race, there is reason to believe the team will limit Jones' starts down the stretch. Remember, this is his first year in the majors, and his career-high innings pitched is just 126.1.
Jared Jones just threw one of nastiest pitches you will see all season. 😮 pic.twitter.com/mDYibaevZe
— MLB (@MLB) April 22, 2024
The Pirates have also already tried to limit him early in the season when he exited after five scoreless innings against the New York Mets at just 59 pitches. With the way he is pitching, see what you can get for him. Don't sell low by any means, but if you can get a certified star pitcher in return, you should be looking to sell him then.
OF Riley Greene, Detroit Tigers
Detroit Tigers outfielder Riley Greene is coming off arguably the best game of his professional career on April 23 against the Tampa Bay Rays. In that game, Greene went 2-for-3 at the plate with two HRs and three RBI to lift the Tigers to a 4-2 win. Both of those HRs were also hit over 108 mph.
That two-home run game capped off a fantastic week for the 23-year-old at the plate. He went 7-for-23 (.304 average) with two HRs, four RBI, one double, one triple, and six walks. However, I would use that solid week and try to ship him for a more surefire fantasy player.
Greene is definitely off to a great start this season, and the metrics back that up too. But, his expected batting average (.249) and strikeout rate (25.2%) will continue to be a downfall for his fantasy value. He could be a player you involve in a package deal to upgrade the outfielder position on your fantasy team.
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