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Making the right trades can be crucial to championship success in fantasy baseball, almost as much as the draft, if not more. While most trades can have a significant impact on your fantasy team, it’s the deals where you acquire undervalued players and then see their production improve that can really tip the scales in your favor where the standings are concerned.
The same can certainly be said about trading away players at the right time when they have the most fantasy trade value. Those deals could happen in the second week of April or the last week of August, but they’re impactful all the same.
Here are some undervalued candidates to pursue in trades and some overvalued ones who you should consider dealing for if they presently occupy a spot on your roster.
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Undervalued Players To Trade For
Alex Bregman, Houston Astros
Bregman has never been one to post gaudy hard-hit numbers. His hard-hit rate hasn't topped 40% in a season, but he’s been consistently elite at making contact and getting on base. He's hit at least .280 three times in the last six seasons and hasn't ever logged an on-base percentage below .340 in a full season. That’s not to say he hasn’t hit for power either. The third baseman collected 31 home runs in 2018 and 41 the next season. He likely would’ve approached somewhat similar numbers last season were he not limited to 400 plate appearances due to injury.
All that being said, his elite contact metrics have continued this season. Bregman is striking out (13.6%) less than he’s walking (14.4%) and is sporting excellent marks in terms of chase rate and whiff rate.
Alex Bregman In 2022:
- 13.6 K%, 92nd percentile
- 15.6% whiff rate, 93rd percentile
- 16.7% Chase Rate, 100th percentile
The infielder has also tacked on 11 home runs to go along with a .363 on-base percentage in 353 plate appearances. However, he’s hitting just .243 on the season and there’s a .030 point chasm between it and his .274 xBA. That's without mentioning his .253 BABIP that is very much on the low side of things, even for a batter with a career .287 BABIP.
In short, Bregman’s batting average has a chance to rise significantly. Now might be the time to acquire him before it does.
Cody Bellinger, Los Angeles Dodgers
Let’s start here by addressing some of Bellinger’s unideal metrics. The veteran is striking out 30.1% of the time and is batting .209 with a .270 on-base percentage. His hard-hit rate is 38.9% and his 8.6% barrel rate is tied for the second-lowest metric of his career. The outfielder just hasn’t been as effective this season.
However, just 34 players in the league this season have collected 10 or more stolen bases. Of those 34, 14 have also connected on at least 10 home runs. One of those 14 is Cody Bellinger. If you’re looking for a player who can contribute stolen bases while also adding to your team’s home run production, he’s an ideal trade target – especially considering the other 13 might be a tad more difficult to acquire in a trade.
Players With At Least 10 Home Runs and 10 Stolen Bases:
- Cody Bellinger
- Shohei Ohtani
- Trevor Story
- Luis Robert
- Jazz Chisholm Jr.
- Adolis Garcia
- Jose Ramirez
- Marcus Semien
- Kyle Tucker
- Dansby Swanson
- Bobby Witt Jr.
- Trea Turner
- Randy Arozarena
- Julio Rodriguez
Bellinger might not be the fantasy force he used to be due to a rise in strikeouts, but that might actually help you acquire the Dodgers outfielder if the manager in your league’s perceived value of him is more of a player who isn’t producing like he used to in years past. The 27-year-old probably isn’t going to hit for an incredibly high average, but as someone who can add home runs and stolen bases to your team, he could make a significant impact down the stretch, especially if you already have a player like Luis Arraez or Michael Brantley already on your roster who can help offset Bellinger’s .207 average.
Robbie Ray, Seattle Mariners
Ray’s overall metrics aren’t quite as impressive as they were in 2021 when he won the Cy Young with the Blue Jays.
Robbie Ray in 2021: 193.1 IP, 2.84 ERA, 3.69 FIP, 11.54 K/9, 2.42 BB/9, 1.54 HR/9, 15.5 SwStr%
Robbie Ray in 2022: 110.1 IP, 3.51 ERA, 3.93 FIP, 10.03 K/9, 3.10 BB/9, 1.31 HR/9 15.2 SwStr%
Still, after a slow start to the season, the hurler has been rounding into form. He’s given up one run or fewer in each of his last six starts. Plus, in those starts, Ray has thrown at least six innings in each outing and three times reached the seven-inning mark. Overall, he owns a 0.91 ERA, a 2.50 FIP, and 46 strikeouts compared to 11 walks in 39.2 innings spread across those six outings.
The window may be closing fast for fantasy managers to make a trade for Ray, but now might be the time to do so. He certainly looks like he’s regained his old form. As his swinging strike rate indicates, he’s still missing bats at the same high rate he was last season. Plus, Ray has actually given up less hard contact compared to last season. After finishing in the 17th percentile league-wide in 2021 with a 43.1% hard-hit rate, the right-hander has dropped that number to 39.1% this season.
He’s also pitching on a Mariners team that has won 16 of 18 entering play on Wednesday and should provide him with plenty more opportunities for pitcher wins as the season progresses. Regular division matchups with the A’s and Angels certainly don’t hurt Ray’s fantasy upside either.
Overvalued Players To Trade Away
Charlie Blackmon, Colorado Rockies
On the surface, Blackmon’s numbers are very much in line with what he’s done in the last three seasons. That includes hitting for a relatively high average (it’s .271), some home runs (he has 14), and a few steals (Blackmon’s stolen base total is at two as we speak).
Blackmon, who has never logged elite hard-hit rates, still isn’t making all that much loud contact. His 32.2% hard-hit rate this season would be the lowest it’s been in a full season since 2015 and elsewhere, his 86.1 MPH average exit velocity is in the ninth percentile league-wide. His max exit velocity is down slightly and on track to be lower than it has been at any point in the last eight years. He’s also sporting just a 5.8% barrel rate despite the 14 home runs. Blackmon's ISO (.204) might be higher than it was in each of the last two seasons, but the lack of loud contact is a bit concerning from the sustainability of production standpoint – especially considering he doesn't possess the elite walk rate and chase rate numbers someone like Bregman does. The Rockies outfielder owns a 6.7% walk rate and a 20.4% whiff rate.
What might be the most concerning is that Blackmon isn't obliterating four-seam fastballs as he did as recently as 2019 (+17 run value, .333 average, .388 xwOBA) or 2017 (+20 run value, .357 average, .385 xwOBA). In fact, Blackmon is actually getting beat more with those fastballs, whether it be via an out in the field, or a swing and miss. The veteran’s 20.4% whiff rate against four-seamers is the highest it’s been in six years and the rest of his metrics against the offering certainly aren’t ideal either.
Charlie Blackmon vs four-seam fastballs in 2022: .216 average, .285 wOBA, 20.4% whiff rate, 23.1 K%, .316 xwOBA, 40.7% hard-hit rate
Those numbers might seem passable in a vacuum, but Blackmon also has a -9 run value against four-seamers this season. If pitchers start attacking him with more four-seamers, it's possible his production could be impacted.
Logan Gilbert, Seattle Mariners
Gilbert is currently sporting a 2.80 ERA in 18 starts spanning 106 innings. He’s also sporting a 3.60 FIP, 100 strikeouts, and 29 walks in those 106 innings. He’s not in the “Overvalued” portion of the column for the nearly one run difference between his ERA, nor is he here because of an unsustainably low BABIP. Gilbert has a .283 BABIP this season, and while that’s low, it’s not too much lower than his .293 BABIP last year.
The real reason Gilbert is here is because of all the hard contact he’s allowed. He’s found success so far, but it might be difficult for a pitcher to give up that type of loud contact all season and finish with an ERA that’s south of the 3.00 mark.
The starter is sporting a 46.6% hard-hit rate and a 90.9 MPH average exit velocity. The good news for him and his production so far, considering that hard contact, is that he’s been reasonably effective at limiting barrels with a 6.6% barrel rate. As of Wednesday, that was in the 66th percentile league-wide. The bad news, at least potentially, for him and his production moving forward is that this isn’t an instance of a pitcher inducing a bunch of sharply-hit grounders that infielders convert into outs. No, the 25-year-old has the eighth-lowest ground ball rate in the league among qualified starters. And while his 39.4% flyball rate is decidedly middle of the pack and plays well at T-Mobile Park, Gilbert also has the fourth-highest line drive rate in the league among those same qualified starters.
For a pitcher sitting in the sixth percentile league-wide in hard-hit rate and the ninth percentile in average exit velocity, it’s hardly ideal. Given the Seattle starter's FIP you'll probably be fine if you keep him on your roster, but if you can deal Gilbert for another frontline starting pitcher with better underlying metrics, now might be the time to make a deal before more of those line drives start falling for hits.
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