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Making the right trades can be crucial to championship success in fantasy baseball, almost as much as the draft, if not more. While most trades can have a significant impact on your fantasy team, it’s the deals where you acquire undervalued players and then see their production improve that can really tip the scales in your favor where the standings are concerned.
The same can certainly be said about trading away players at the right time when they have the most fantasy trade value. Those deals could happen in the second week of April or the last week of August, but they’re impactful all the same.
Here are some undervalued candidates to pursue in trades and some overvalued ones who you should consider dealing for if they presently occupy a spot on your roster.
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Undervalued Players To Trade For
Javier Baez, Detroit Tigers
The shortstop is batting .217 with a .257 on-base percentage, seven home runs, and three stolen bases in 240 plate appearances this season. At face value that’s certainly not ideal, but the All-Star shortstop is heating up at the right time for the Tigers.
Since June 5, Baez is batting .278 with a .321 on-base percentage, four home runs, 10 total extra-base hits, and three stolen bases in 78 plate appearances with an ISO (.264) that’s approaching his BABIP (.291) during that span. The stretch has also included Baez homering in three straight games from June 21 through June 24. What’s more, the shortstop has multi-hit efforts in four of his last seven contests.
If this is the start of the 29-year-old turning things around, he’s certainly someone you’ll want on your team for the stretch run. Baez has reached double digits in home runs and stolen bases in each of his previous five full seasons. Furthermore, he’s hit at least 29 home runs in each of his last three full campaigns, including in 2021 when he logged 31 home runs and 18 stolen bases.
While it remains to be seen if he’ll hit those specific numbers, a turnaround is certainly due at this point and not all surprising. Baez is sporting a .259 BABIP that’s well below his career .329 BABIP and the BABIP metrics he logged in 2017, 2018, 2019 and 2021, all of which were in the .340 to .355 range.
While the shortstop’s 34.7% hard-hit rate is below what we’ve come to expect and see from Baez, his barrel rate (9%) is still reasonably productive and promising sign where his power is concerned. It is worth noting that Baez has a 39% hard-hit rate and an 11.9% barrel rate during his recent run of quality results this month.
Kyle Wright, Atlanta Braves
Wright has enjoyed a breakout season so far. The 26-year-old is sporting a 3.18 ERA, a 2.88 FIP, 92 strikeouts, and 27 walks in 85 innings spanning 14 starts entering play on Wednesday. It has been a significant development for the right-hander, who previously owned an identical 6.56 ERA and a 6.56 FIP in 70 career Major League innings.
If the manager in your league is concerned about Wright after his last two starts and thinks the breakout was in any way fluky, now’s the time to make a trade. Wright has surrendered 21 hits, nine earned runs, a home run, and two walks in his last 11.1 innings, spread over his last two starts in outings against the Chicago Cubs and San Francisco Giants. Outside of a May 10 start against the New York Mets, they’ve been the only starts this season in which Wright has given up more than three runs.
This is more of a blip on the radar than anything resembling reverting to his pre-2022 form for Wright, who has allowed one or no runs in six of his 14 outings this year. The right-hander has also rattled off eight wins in those 14 starts, tied for the second-most in the league. He should continue to be as good of a bet for wins as any starting pitcher for the rest of the season, pitching for an Atlanta team with the league-sixth highest-scoring offense and in an Atlanta rotation with the fourth-most pitcher wins in baseball.
Austin Riley, Atlanta Braves
Staying in Atlanta with Wright’s teammate, Riley has been elite from a quality of contact standpoint, ranking in the 88th percentile or better in xwOBA (88th), barrel rate (94th), xSLG (93rd), max exit velocity (96th), average exit velocity (97th) and hard-hit rate (97th).
Those numbers have certainly translated in the power department. Only four full-time infielders, and nine players overall, have hit more home runs than Riley, who has 18. Where it hasn’t shown up as much is in the batting average department. Riley’s .253 average is down significantly from last season from last season’s .303 metric.
Part of that might have to do with the infielder’s BABIP, which has dropped as well from .368 last year to .298 this season. Overall though, a rebound could certainly be on the horizon where the average is concerned. The 25-year-old’s chase rate and zone contact metrics are nearly identical from last season to this current one. Pair those with significantly improved hard-hit and barrel rates and you have the recipe for a league-winning player.
Austin Riley in 2021: 78.9% Zone Contact%, 31% Chase Rate, 45.6% Hard-Hit Rate, 13.3% Barrel Rate
Austin Riley in 2022: 78.9% Zone Contact%, 31.6% Chase Rate, 53.8% Hard-Hit Rate, 15.6% Barrel Rate
While he may not be a significant stolen base threat, Riley should once again be one of fantasy baseball’s hitters down the stretch.
Overvalued Players To Trade Away
Daniel Bard, Colorado Rockies
Saves are hard to come by in fantasy, which could make trading someone like Bard, who has 15 saves in 28 appearances this season, a difficult proposition if he’s on your roster. You might not want to deal the saves, but it’s possible someone in your league might be willing to overpay for them – or at the very least trade away an established fantasy contributor at another position.
If that’s the case, Bard should certainly be someone you should consider moving, and it’s not just because of the scarcity of saves either. Bard has pitched to a 2.12 ERA and a 3.54 FIP in 29.2 innings with 10.92 punchouts per nine frames and a rather unideal 3.94 walks per nine innings. If the chasm between the ERA and FIP wasn’t enough, Bard is also sitting on a .185 BABIP.
He also pitches at Coors Field in half of his outings, which is also unideal for fantasy purposes. In 17 innings at home, Bard owns a 2.65 ERA and a 3.61 FIP, but also a .237 BABIP. He’s been solid at home so far, but it’s obviously not a pitcher-friendly park. One bad outing could sink his ERA and potentially tank his perceived fantasy trade value.
Another potential factor in tanking Bard’s fantasy trade value, perceived or otherwise, is a potential mid-season deal. Bard is pitching for the same Rockies team that is mired at the bottom of the National League West and nine games out of the National League Wild Card race. A July trade to a contender where he’ll pitch the seventh or eighth innings isn’t going to help his fantasy value. In fact, it’s probably going to hurt it, even in saves+holds leagues.
Now’s the time to capitalize on Bard’s status and effectiveness as Colorado’s closer in a trade.
Clay Holmes, New York Yankees
Look away fantasy managers who currently roster Clay Holmes.
MLB.com’s Bryan Hoch tweeted the following on June 25: “Aroldis Chapman will appear for @SOMPatriots again tomorrow, then could be activated, Aaron Boone said. He will return to the ninth inning. #Yankees.”
Then, in a June 27 article by Brian Heyman in Newsday, Boone was quoted as saying:
“Clay certainly earned that closer role ... although there has been nights, I don’t know if we’ve done it since Chappy’s been down, but there’s been many a night where he could’ve been in there in the eighth inning just based on the matchups and I would’ve closed with Wandy [Peralta] or whoever was available. … So those things have been in play already. … The biggest thing is I want to get Chappy in a good place deliver-wise and throwing the ball like he’s capable of. If we get that, then we’ve got another back-end monster to mix in.”
While Holmes could certainly regain the role outright if Chapman’s pre-injury struggles return to the forefront, this looks like a bullpen situation – purely based on that comment – similar to those in Seattle and Minnesota with multiple ninth-inning options logging saves. The Yankees have the best record and the most wins in baseball so far, so perhaps both relievers will be able to stay fantasy-relevant, but the reality is that Holmes might not be fantasy’s best closer as he arguably was when Chapman was sidelined.
Now might be the time to trade him, even if he does stay in the saves mix. That fact, combined with Chapman’s 4.98 FIP in 14 innings this season, could help you get an impact hitter or starting pitcher in return. I’d try moving Holmes in a two-for-two deal to try and significantly upgrade your lineup. Something like Holmes and Austin Hays for George Springer and Tanner Scott or Paul Sewald. That way you’re getting a better hitter while retaining a source of saves.
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