X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Using Sabermetrics for Fantasy Baseball: Batter BABIP

In the first part of his 2021 fantasy baseball strategy series, Rick Lucks breaks down how to use BABIP to evaluate a hitter's expected batting average.

The most accessible of the fantasy-relevant advanced stats is BABIP, or Batting Average on Balls In Play. It simply measures a player's batting average on balls in play, with outcomes such as strikeouts and home runs removed from consideration. In general, the league average hovers around .300, a nice round number to remember.

Many know BABIP as an approximation of luck, with either a very high or very low number indicative of a major batting average regression in the future. That is partially correct--the stat can be used to predict batting average fluctuations. However, a player's skills may allow him to run a better than average BABIP, or doom him to a consistently below-average figure.

A quick look at 2020's BABIP leaderboards reveals that we're much better off consulting 2019 data for this metric. In 2018, two players qualified for the batting title with a BABIP of .370 or higher. In 2019, that number went up to three. In 2020, the figure jumped to 10. The shortened season doesn't provide enough reliable data to work with, forcing us to go back a year for the examples below.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

The Above-Average BABIP Formula

Christian Yelich of the Milwaukee Brewers has been a batting average force for a while, but the addition of elite power to his profile made him a consensus top-3 pick heading into 2020. In 2019, Yelich hit an outstanding .329/.429/.671 with 44 HR and 30 SB in just 580 PAs. One of the reasons for his success was a .355 BABIP, so Yelich loses a lot of value if we regress that all the way to .300. Should we really do that?

Yelich's career BABIP is .354, clearly indicating a sustainable ability to beat the league-average .300. Considering 2019's BABIP of .355 was within a point of his career rate, a repeat is the safest projection. What skills does Yelich possess that allow him to crush the average player?

Yelich is an elite speedster--his 28.7 ft./sec Statcast Sprint Speed was nearly two full ticks above average in 2019. It makes sense that someone with Yelich's wheels could beat out more base hits than other players, while most catchers would lag in this regard. Therefore, an established player's baseline BABIP should not be the league average .300, but whatever that specific player's career BABIP is.

Looking at BABIP by batted ball type can also be a great tool. Yelich gets his speedster hits exclusively on grounders, as running really fast does nothing to prevent a fielder from catching a ball in the air. While the league averaged a .236 BABIP on grounders in 2019, Yelich posted a .292 mark on them. His career rate is only .276. Therefore, we can conclude that Yelich should continue to outperform the league average on ground balls because his .276 career BABIP is much higher than the league average. However, he is unlikely to do so to the same extent he did in 2019.

Comparing BABIPs for the other batted-ball types year over year is something of a mixed bag for Yelich. His fly balls found pay dirt much less frequently, posting a BABIP of .133 against a career mark of .201. However, his line drives fared considerably better (.744 BABIP last year) than they have in the past (.690 career). Overall, both figures should be expected to regress to the mean and roughly cancel each other out. When we factor in slight regression based on ground balls above, we should probably expect Yelich to fall shy of last 2019's BABIP while still clearing .300 easily in 2021.

Yelich had easily his worst campaign in 2020: .205/.356/.430 with 12 HR over 247 PAs. His BABIP cratered to .259, standing out as one reason among many that he disappointed his fantasy managers. However, Yelich is still a first-rounder in many fantasy drafts on NFBC (11.62 ADP), and some managers have taken him first overall. Projection systems also support a Yelich rebound, with FanGraphs projecting a .274/.381/.522 line with 34 HR and a BABIP in the .320s. BABIP takes multiple seasons to stabilize (or become predictive), and you need to avoid rushing to conclusions when using it.

 

The Below-Average BABIP Formula

The same trend is possible in a negative way. For example, Anaheim's slugging DH, Albert Pujols, is well known for being an all-or-nothing batter who pulls the ball at every opportunity. This makes him susceptible to the shift, as the infield defense knows where the ball is likely to go and can set up accordingly. He also lacks the speed to beat out infield hits most other major leaguers can, finishing last in Statcast's Sprint Speed metric last year.

These factors figure to hurt his BABIP on grounders, and Pujols's .212 mark in 2019 indicates that it did. This wasn't a new trend, as he hit .160 on grounders in 2018, .192 in 2017, .217 in 2016, and .179 in 2015. Clearly, projecting regression toward the league average would be wrong. Pujols's overall BABIP was .238 in 2019, a number that should be expected moving forward due to his consistently poor production on ground balls. It fell to .230 last season, further reinforcing the fact that Pujols is a terrible fantasy baseball player these days.

 

Conclusion

To conclude, BABIP can be used to indirectly measure a player's batting average luck by comparing it not to the league average of .300 but to an established player's career number. Younger players without an established baseline are generally regressed to the league average, but these predictions are less reliable than those based on a player's personal history.

Foot speed, batted ball authority, line drive rate, and defensive positioning all give players some ability to manipulate BABIP. Players with these skills may still overachieve, and this regression can be predicted by examining BABIP by batted ball type. Click on this link to learn more about how sabermetrics can give you an advantage as a fantasy baseball manager!

[youtube-mlb]

More Sabermetrics & Fantasy Baseball Strategy




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Jake Cronenworth3 hours ago

Targeting Earlier Return
Liam Hendriks4 hours ago

Set To Return On Saturday
Jackson Merrill4 hours ago

Not Expected To Return Next Week
Martín Pérez4 hours ago

Martin Perez Will Undergo MRI On Saturday
Casey Schmitt4 hours ago

Expected To Hit Injured List
Brock Stewart4 hours ago

Expected To Return On Sunday
Luke Keaschall5 hours ago

Busy In MLB Debut
Jose Fleury5 hours ago

Continues Strong Start On Friday
AJ Smith-Shawver5 hours ago

Strikes Out Eight In Defeat
Marcelo Mayer5 hours ago

Tallies Seven RBI On Friday
Zyhir Hope5 hours ago

Hits Two Home Runs On Friday
Andrew Painter5 hours ago

Sharp In Second Rehab Outing
Tyler Anderson11 hours ago

Keeps Hot Streak Rolling Friday
Logan Webb11 hours ago

Fans 12 In Tough-Luck Loss
Carlos Rodón11 hours ago

Carlos Rodon Goes Six Scoreless To Snap Personal Losing Streak
Andrew Abbott11 hours ago

Dominates Orioles On Friday
Yoshinobu Yamamoto11 hours ago

Tosses Another Gem
Cam Smith11 hours ago

Hits Two Taters On Friday
Trevor Story11 hours ago

Mashes Pair Of Three-Run Homers
Zack Wheeler14 hours ago

Records 13 Strikeouts
LaMonte Wade Jr.15 hours ago

Out On Friday
Ja Morant15 hours ago

Cleared To Play Friday
Brandon Williams15 hours ago

Available Against Grizzlies
Anthony Davis15 hours ago

Will Play Friday Night
Gary Trent Jr.15 hours ago

Available For Game 1 Against Pacers
Taurean Prince16 hours ago

Returns To Bucks Lineup Saturday
NFL16 hours ago

Justin Hardee Sr. Waived With Non-Football Injury
Isaiah Stewart16 hours ago

To Return For Game 1
Ausar Thompson16 hours ago

Available For Game 1
Rui Hachimura16 hours ago

On Track To Play Saturday
Austin Reaves16 hours ago

Ready To Go For Game 1
NFL16 hours ago

Bills Release Armani Rogers, Branson Deen
Luka Dončić16 hours ago

Luka Doncic Removed From Injury Report
LeBron James16 hours ago

Listed As Probable For Game 1
Ben Sheppard16 hours ago

Probable For Saturday's Game 1
NFL16 hours ago

Kolton Miller Absent From Raiders' Voluntary Offseason Program
Kevin Durant16 hours ago

To Houston Already Losing Steam
Lauri Markkanen17 hours ago

Wants To Stay With The Jazz
NFL17 hours ago

Ross Blacklock Let Go By New York
Bennedict Mathurin17 hours ago

Expected To Play In Game 1 Saturday
Pascal Siakam17 hours ago

Available For Playoff Opener
Tyrese Haliburton17 hours ago

Returning From Two-Game Absence Saturday
Cade Cunningham17 hours ago

Available For Game 1 Against Knicks
Josh Hart17 hours ago

Back In Knicks Lineup Saturday
OG Anunoby17 hours ago

Good To Go For Game 1
Jalen Brunson18 hours ago

Available For Saturday's Game 1
NFL18 hours ago

Raiders Considering Drafting A Quarterback
Irv Smith18 hours ago

Sticking With Texans
Ryan Lindgren18 hours ago

Set To Return Saturday
NFL19 hours ago

Texans Expected To Draft Wide Receivers
Greg Dortch19 hours ago

Returning To Cardinals
Josh Manson19 hours ago

Available For Game 1
Mark Andrews19 hours ago

Could Be Traded Soon
Ondrej Palat19 hours ago

To Return For Start Of Playoffs
David Savard19 hours ago

Will Retire After Playoffs
NFL19 hours ago

Raiders, Falcons Could Have Interest In Jalen Ramsey
Robert Thomas19 hours ago

Good To Go Saturday
Matthew Tkachuk19 hours ago

Expected To Return For Game 1
19 hours ago

Raiders Are High On Ashton Jeanty
Jason Robertson19 hours ago

Considered Week-To-Week
Rome Odunze19 hours ago

To Hopefully Get More Involved
NFL20 hours ago

Dolphins Could Draft A Quarterback
James Cook20 hours ago

Could Stay Away From Voluntary Workouts
Leon Draisaitl1 day ago

Wins First Rocket Richard Trophy
Nikita Kucherov1 day ago

Bags Third Art Ross Trophy
Bryan Rust1 day ago

Scores Twice In Season-Ending Win
Igor Shesterkin1 day ago

Shuts Out Lightning With 27 Saves
Dylan Cozens1 day ago

Picks Up Three Points In Regular-Season Finale
Matvei Michkov1 day ago

Caps Off Rookie Campaign With Three-Point Effort
Brady Tkachuk1 day ago

Makes Early Exit For Precautionary Reasons
Jake Tonges1 day ago

Signs Exclusive-Rights Tender
Denver Broncos2 days ago

Broncos To Focus On RB Position In Next Week's Draft
Drew Lock2 days ago

Sam Howell, Drew Lock Expected To Compete For Backup Job
New York Giants2 days ago

Giants Leaning Toward Taking Best Player Available At No. 3
New Orleans Saints2 days ago

Ryan Ramczyk Announces His Retirement
Buffalo Bills2 days ago

Tre'Davious White Reunites With Buffalo
Aaron Rodgers2 days ago

Willing To Play For $10 Million A Year
Jakob Chychrun2 days ago

Returns Against Penguins
Rasmus Andersson2 days ago

Out Against Kings
Jonathan Huberdeau2 days ago

Sits Out Regular-Season Finale
Ryan Pulock2 days ago

Out On Thursday
Jake Sanderson2 days ago

Back In Action Thursday
Thomas Chabot2 days ago

To Be Rested Against Hurricanes
Claude Giroux2 days ago

Active On Thursday
Lucas Glover3 days ago

Looks To Rebound After Poor Performance
Daniel Berger3 days ago

Looking To Continue Solid Play At RBC
Sepp Straka3 days ago

Looking To Bounce Back At RBC
Justin Thomas3 days ago

Looking To Shake Off Poor Masters At RBC Heritage
Xander Schauffele3 days ago

Still Looking For Year's First Win At RBC Heritage
Maverick McNealy3 days ago

Is An Intriguing Play At RBC Heritage
Shane Lowry3 days ago

Looks To Shake Off Poor Masters Sunday At RBC Heritage
Will Zalatoris3 days ago

Eyes A Bounce-Back At RBC Heritage
Gary Woodland3 days ago

Could Add Some Surprise At Hilton Head
Sam Burns3 days ago

Hoping For Better Times At RBC Heritage
Sahith Theegala3 days ago

Still Trying To Put It All Together
Aaron Rai3 days ago

Might Be That Guy For Hilton Head
Robert MacIntyre3 days ago

All Or Nothing At RBC Heritage
Tom Hoge3 days ago

Still Playing Solid Heading To Hilton Head
Nick Dunlap3 days ago

Continues To Have Rough Stretch
Keegan Bradley3 days ago

Looks To Move On From Masters Performance
Matt Fitzpatrick3 days ago

A Boom-Or-Bust Option At RBC Heritage
Patrick Cantlay3 days ago

A Strong Play At RBC Heritage
Jordan Spieth3 days ago

Targets Another Strong RBC Heritage Showing
Collin Morikawa3 days ago

Eyeing Victory At RBC Heritage
Max Homa3 days ago

Breaks Through At The Masters
Alexander Volkanovski4 days ago

Reclaims Featherweight Title
Diego Lopes4 days ago

Drops Decision At UFC 314
Paddy Pimblett4 days ago

Remains Undefeated In The UFC
Michael Chandler4 days ago

Suffers TKO Loss
MMA4 days ago

Patricio Freire Gets Dominated In His UFC Debut
Yair Rodriguez4 days ago

Gets Back In The Win Column
Bryce Mitchell4 days ago

Gets Submitted At UFC 314
Jean Silva4 days ago

Gets Submission Win At UFC 314
Dominick Reyes4 days ago

Wins Third Fight In A Row
5 days ago

Austin Dillon Nabs His First Top-10 Finish Of The 2025 Season At Bristol
5 days ago

Ryan Blaney's Bold Strategies Fall Flat, Still Musters A Top-Five Finish At Bristol
5 days ago

Christopher Bell Finishes In The Top 10 After Falling Back Midway At Bristol
5 days ago

Ty Gibbs Earns His First Top-Five Finish Of The 2025 Season At Bristol
5 days ago

Chase Briscoe Quietly Scores First Career Top-Five Finish At Bristol
5 days ago

Denny Hamlin Cuts Into William Byron's Points Lead
5 days ago

William Byron Makes Best Of His Mediocre Qualifying Run With Sixth-Place Finish
5 days ago

Despite Engine Failure, Alex Bowman's Improved Speed Looks Promising
NASCAR5 days ago

A.J. Allmendinger Enters Playoff Picture With Surprise Bristol Top-10 Finish
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF