X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Player Comparisons
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Fantasy Baseball Strategy: 7 Tips to Avoid Early Season Jitters

 

For Long-Term Success, Don't Overreact Early in the Season

Perhaps more than at any other point in the season, fantasy owners are prone to overreaction in April. Everybody wants to get off to a good start, and correctly identifying breakouts and busts as early as possible can go a long way toward determining who brings home the hardware. Of course, that’s easier said than done. It’s not an exact science, either. Knowing when various metrics tend to stabilize is a great start, but it can hard to see the forest for the trees after yet another night of 0-for-4’s up and down your roster.

Press the panic button too early, and you risk giving up a valuable asset. Sit tight for too long, though, and you may lose out on this year’s Corey Kluber or Michael Brantley. This can often seem like a “damned if you do, damned if you don’t” situation. Fortunately for you, through over a decade of playing this weird and wonderful game of ours, I’ve learned a thing or two about when to hold ‘em and when to fold ‘em. Here are some general tips on how to navigate the waters.

 

1. Keep doing the work

You spent a lot of time preparing for your draft. You read a bunch of articles here, you pored over FanGraphs pages, you compiled spreadsheets. Then the actual games started. Did you continue to do your homework? It’s surprising how many owners quickly fall into a rut, simply monitoring their own players’ status and skimming the waiver wire without taking the time to keep tabs on other rosters. Leagues are won with moves made on the margins. Every little bit helps, and you can only maximize the value of your roster if you keep putting in the effort to be one step ahead of the competition.

 

2. Anchoring is your enemy

Anchoring is a cognitive bias that causes us to rely too heavily on the first piece of information we receive when making decisions. It’s a tactic often used by savvy negotiators to get the best possible deal. In the context of fantasy baseball, this bias may manifest itself in over-reliance on either preseason projections or a hot start. Anchoring is extremely difficult to avoid entirely, but simply being aware of the phenomenon can help keep it from clouding your thought process as much as it otherwise would.

 

3. Accept the principle of sunk cost

Once the season starts, it no longer matters what you paid to own a player. A first-round pick and a 20th rounder who have the same stats have provided the same value, or lack thereof, to your team. Obviously the former is more likely to deliver more value over the long haul, but it’s possible that what might seem like a slump is just the beginning of a lost season. Sometimes the bottom falls out, or a guy tries to play through an undisclosed injury, or the luck dragons just pick on a certain player all season. You can’t afford to keep trotting an albatross out there just because you shelled out for him in March. Winning this game is as much about not compounding your errors as it is about success.

 

4. Keep your emotions in check

We’ve all been there enough times to know how frustrating it is when a cornerstone of your team endures a seemingly endless stretch of poor play. It’s important to keep that from causing you to make a rash roster decision. You don’t want to be the guy who punted on George Springer right before he hit homers in eight straight games. Smart owners will notice a name brand who’s struggling and kick the tires, offering pennies on the dollar in the hopes of catching you in a low moment. It’s often in your best interest to shoot these proposals down, no matter how enticing it may sound to rid yourself of this underachieving headache.

 

5. Know your limit for each player on your roster

At all times, you should have a good idea of just how much rope you’re willing to give to every player on your team. Certain players deserve more leeway than others, of course, but this will also help you avoid emotions clouding your judgment. Use all the resources at your disposal to determine how long you’re willing to wait for a struggling player to rebound. This could include prior performance, scouting and injury reports, prospect pedigree, and combing through their peripherals.

 

6. Resist the siren song of streaks – sometimes

Some stats, like strikeout rate, normalize quickly. Others take years to do so. Educated guesswork is the name of the game, and the time you spent researching will pay off here. Look for signs that a player off to a strong start might actually have made tangible improvements. Naturally, youth is a major factor. Did this player perform well in the minors? Is there a significant change in his batted ball or plate discipline profile? Did he add a new pitch or change his selection? Not every April hero is riding high on a crazy BABIP or strand rate.

 

7. Understand that you will occasionally be wrong no matter what

Inevitably, you will make mistakes. Maybe you hold too long on the star player who just never gets untracked as he loses all semblance of trade value, and you miss out on the next big thing. Perhaps you cut bait too quickly and cut or deal a stud for a flash in the pan. No matter how good you are, baseball is simply too unpredictable to expect getting through a season without any missteps or regrets. Hell, I won all three of my leagues last year and made plenty of boneheaded moves along the way.

As the old adage goes, you can’t win a title in April, but you can certainly lose one. Tread carefully, but don’t be afraid to make a bold move. Trust your instincts if you’ve put in the time to develop them. Above all, remember that it’s a game. Have fun.

 




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Player Comparisons
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

DK Metcalf2 hours ago

Puts In Full Practice On Wednesday
Henrik Norlander2 hours ago

Needs Strong Showing At Butterfield Bermuda Championship
Michael Kim2 hours ago

Playing Well Down The Stretch
Nick Taylor2 hours ago

Returns To Butterfield Bermuda Championship
Jhonattan Vegas2 hours ago

Playing Well Heading To Butterfield Bermuda Championship
Matthias Schmid2 hours ago

Looks To Bounce Back At Butterfield Bermuda Championship
Patrick Rodgers2 hours ago

Heads To Butterfield Bermuda Championship
Mackenzie Hughes2 hours ago

Debuts At Butterfield Bermuda Championship
Maverick McNealy2 hours ago

Seeking Back-To-Back Top-10 Finishes In Bermuda
Lucas Glover2 hours ago

In A Groove Ahead Of Bermuda Championship
Andrew Putnam2 hours ago

A Player To Watch In Bermuda
PGA2 hours ago

Nico Echavarria In Top Form Heading To Bermuda
Jusuf Nurkic2 hours ago

Back On Wednesday Night
Anfernee Simons3 hours ago

Won't Suit Up Against The Timberwolves
Robert Williams III3 hours ago

Resting In Rematch With Minnesota
Deandre Ayton3 hours ago

Out Again On Wednesday
Andre Drummond3 hours ago

Out Sick On Wednesday
Paul George3 hours ago

Won't Play Versus Cleveland
Joel Embiid3 hours ago

Sitting On Wednesday
Tage Thompson3 hours ago

Labeled As Day-To-Day
Mattias Samuelsson3 hours ago

Out Indefinitely
Gabriel Landeskog3 hours ago

Remains Without A Timeline
Jonas Brodin4 hours ago

Considered Questionable For Thursday
Tank Bigsby4 hours ago

Listed As DNP On Wednesday
Andre Drummond4 hours ago

Listed As Questionable On Wednesday
Tyreek Hill4 hours ago

Misses Wednesday's Practice
Hampus Lindholm4 hours ago

Expected To Miss "Weeks"
Jani Hakanpaa4 hours ago

Available On Wednesday
Tee Higgins4 hours ago

Officially Limited On Wednesday
Marcus Smart4 hours ago

Set To Play Wednesday
Seth Jarvis4 hours ago

Set To Miss A Second Consecutive Game
Michael Pittman Jr.4 hours ago

Practicing In Full
Brian Thomas Jr.4 hours ago

Limited On Wednesday
Josh Jacobs4 hours ago

Limited During Wednesday's Practice
Mike Conley4 hours ago

Resting Wednesday Versus Portland
Kirk Cousins4 hours ago

Limited On Wednesday
Najee Harris5 hours ago

Does Not Practice On Wednesday
Christian McCaffrey5 hours ago

Limited On Wednesday
George Kittle5 hours ago

Not Practicing On Wednesday
Brian Robinson Jr.5 hours ago

Off The Injury Report
DK Metcalf5 hours ago

To Be Limited In Wednesday's Practice
Sam LaPorta6 hours ago

Misses Practice, Remains Day-To-Day
J.J. McCarthy7 hours ago

Undergoes Second Knee Surgery
Gardner Minshew II7 hours ago

Will Start In Week 11
Tee Higgins8 hours ago

Won't Practice But Bengals Encouraged With His Progress
Isiah Pacheco8 hours ago

Unlikely To Return In Week 11
Younghoe Koo8 hours ago

Falcons Sticking With Younghoe Koo As Their Kicker
Dalton Kincaid9 hours ago

No Practice For Dalton Kincaid On Wednesday
Amari Cooper9 hours ago

To Be Limited On Wednesday
Nick Hardy11 hours ago

Looks To Find Consistency On The Greens In Bermuda
Carson Young12 hours ago

Hopes To Carry Recent Form To Bermuda
Brandon Clarke12 hours ago

Questionable For Wednesday's Action
Kevin Yu12 hours ago

A Name To Watch At Butterfield Bermuda Championship
Marcus Smart12 hours ago

Picks Up Questionable Tag Ahead Of Wednesday
Fred VanVleet12 hours ago

Tagged As Questionable For Wednesday
Steven Adams13 hours ago

Questionable For Meeting With Clippers
Dorian Finney-Smith13 hours ago

In Danger Of Missing Another Game
Obi Toppin13 hours ago

Questionable For Wednesday Night
Anthony Davis13 hours ago

Expected To Play Wednesday
Connor McDavid13 hours ago

Leads Oilers To Victory With Four-Point Effort
Neal Pionk13 hours ago

Records Three Assists In Historic Win
Linus Ullmark13 hours ago

Records First Shutout As Senator
Hampus Lindholm13 hours ago

Taken Out By A Lower-Body Injury
Sam Bennett14 hours ago

Battling An Upper-Body Injury
Lars Eller14 hours ago

Returns To Washington
Shohei Ohtani22 hours ago

Among NL Silver Slugger Winners
Aaron Judge22 hours ago

Headlines AL Silver Slugger Winners
Jose Alvarado23 hours ago

Out Against OKC
Zach LaVine24 hours ago

Back On The Injury Report For Wednesday
Luka Doncic24 hours ago

Cleared To Play Against The Warriors
Donovan Clingan24 hours ago

Starting Versus Minnesota
Dante Fabbro1 day ago

Makes Blue Jackets Debut Tuesday
Wander Franco1 day ago

Now Facing Weapons Charges
Spencer Knight1 day ago

Set To Face Devils Tuesday
Travis d'Arnaud1 day ago

Agrees On Two-Year Deal With Angels
Logan Stanley1 day ago

Added To Injured Reserve
Philipp Grubauer1 day ago

Remains Out On Tuesday
Shane Pinto1 day ago

Returns To Senators Lineup
Cam Fowler1 day ago

Placed On Injured Reserve
Robby Fabbri1 day ago

Lands On Injured Reserve
Brendon Todd1 day ago

A Hard Sell At Butterfield Bermuda Championship
Greyson Sigg1 day ago

May Surprise In Bermuda
Jacob Bridgeman1 day ago

In For Adventure At Port Royal Golf Course
Mark Hubbard1 day ago

Plays Solid In Bermuda
Andrew Novak1 day ago

Tries To Build Off ZOZO Championship
Daniel Berger1 day ago

Looks To Continue His Consistent Run At Port Royal Golf Course
Justin Lower1 day ago

Looks To Continue His Hot Play At Butterfield Bermuda Championship
1 day ago

Blue Jays, Red Sox To Meet With Juan Soto
Dustin Wolf2 days ago

Cools Off Kings Monday
Jasson Domínguez2 days ago

Yankees Expect Jasson Dominguez To Have A Big Role In 2025
Carlos Correa2 days ago

Progressing
Carlos Prates2 days ago

Gets Higlight-Reel Knockout Win At UFC Vegas 100
Neil Magny2 days ago

Gets Knocked Out At UFC Vegas 100
Cortavious Romious2 days ago

Drops Decision At UFC Vegas 100
Gaston Bolaños2 days ago

Gaston Bolanos Wins Back-To-Back Fights
Joey Logano2 days ago

Holds On At Phoenix To Win His Third Cup Series Championship
Los Angeles Dodgers2 days ago

Dodgers Considered Favorites For Roki Sasaki
Ryan Blaney2 days ago

Falls Short Of The 2024 Cup Series Title At Phoenix
Dusko Todorovic2 days ago

Gets TKO'd At UFC Vegas 100
Wander Franco2 days ago

Arrested On Monday After Altercation
Tyler Reddick3 days ago

Lacks Speed Of Other Championship 4 Contenders But Drives Well
William Byron3 days ago

Finishes Third In Phoenix Race And Championship
Miami Marlins3 days ago

Marlins Hire Clayton McCullough As New Skipper
Mansur Abdul-Malik3 days ago

Gets First-Round Finish At UFC Vegas 100
Luana Pinheiro3 days ago

Falls Short At UFC Vegas 100
Gillian Robertson3 days ago

Extends Win Streak At UFC Vegas 100
Gerald Meerschaert3 days ago

Gets Finished At UFC Vegas 100
MMA3 days ago

Reinier de Ridder Gets Submission Win In UFC Debut
3 days ago

Rays Have Interest In Juan Soto
NASCAR4 days ago

Bubba Wallace Is A Top DFS Recommendation With Upside For Phoenix
Tyler Reddick4 days ago

Is Expected To Compete For The Title At Phoenix
Joey Logano4 days ago

Is One Of The Favorites To Win At Phoenix
Kyle Larson4 days ago

Could Be A Favorable DFS Option For Phoenix Lineups
Corey Lajoie4 days ago

Corey LaJoie Will Start 20th At Phoenix
Brad Keselowski4 days ago

Is A Solid Recommendation For Phoenix DFS Lineups
Erik Jones4 days ago

Will Start 19th At Phoenix This Week
Carson Hocevar4 days ago

Will Compete For A Top-10 Finish At Phoenix
Ty Gibbs4 days ago

Should DFS Players Fade Ty Gibbs At Phoenix?
Chase Elliott4 days ago

Is Chase Elliott A Solid DFS Pick For Phoenix Lineups?
Ryan Blaney4 days ago

The Championship Favorite Despite Qualifying Blunder
William Byron4 days ago

Will Be Strong In Fight For Championship
Austin Cindric4 days ago

Is Austin Cindric Worth Rostering For Phoenix DFS Lineups?
Ross Chastain4 days ago

Is Great At Phoenix
Christopher Bell4 days ago

Looking To Go Back-To-Back At Phoenix After Championship Snub
Chase Briscoe4 days ago

Can Be Worth Rostering In Tournaments At Phoenix
Denny Hamlin4 days ago

Could Contend At Phoenix
4 days ago

Nick Martinez Expected To Accept Qualifying Offer
MLB4 days ago

Roki Sasaki Will Be Posted, Opens Door For 2025 MLB Debut
Nolan Arenado5 days ago

Could Be On The Trade Block
Zach Neto5 days ago

Undergoes Shoulder Surgery, Could Miss Start Of 2025
Mason Miller5 days ago

To Stay In The Bullpen
Shohei Ohtani5 days ago

Shoulder Surgery Could Delay His Pitching
New York Yankees5 days ago

Yankees Exercise Aaron Boone's Option
Carlos Prates5 days ago

Looks For His Fourth Win In A Row
Neil Magny5 days ago

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
MMA5 days ago

Benardo Sopaj Looks For His First UFC Win
Ricky Turcios5 days ago

Returns At UFC Vegas 100
Dusko Todorovic5 days ago

An Underdog At UFC Vegas 100

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

MORE RECENT ARTICLES

 
David Montgomery - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

NFL Pick'em Pool Picks (Week 11) - Targets, Avoids, Predictions for Pick'em Contests (2024)

The Cardinals, Buccaneers, Panthers, and Giants will all be on a bye during Week 11. There are still some great matchups on the board, including when the Steelers host the Ravens. Each week of the NFL season, I’ll share my picks for each game and rank their selections for those who play in a format […]


Jauan Jennings - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Injury News, DFS Lineup Picks

Fantasy Football Risers and Fallers - Week 11

Week 10 of the 2024 season is in the books. That means another week of cold, hard data to analyze. We’ll try not to overreact, but instead, use logic and reasoning as the foundation for our decision-making in the weeks ahead. Each week, we’ll take a look back at the previous week to see if […]


Austin Ekeler - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL News

High-Value Touches and Opportunities - Fantasy Football Underperformers, Overperformers (Week 11)

Welcome back, RotoBallers, to my weekly series, "High-Value Touches and Opportunities" for Week 11 of the 2024 fantasy football season. We're nearly a month before the fantasy football playoffs begin, depending on if leagues go through Week 17 or 18. It's crunch time, and we'll want to pay attention to the news, noise, and trends, […]


Houston Texans Defense D/ST Streamers, Rankings, Waiver Wire - Derek Stingley Fantasy Football IDP

Week 11 Defense (DEF) Streamers and Starts - 2024 Fantasy Tiers, Rankings

Welcome back, RotoBallers, to our Week 11 fantasy football defense streamers and D/ST rankings for the 2024 fantasy football season. Every week, I'll go through the best and worst fantasy defenses. There are four more teams on bye this week (Cardinals, Panthers, Giants, and Buccaneers), so I'll be ranking defenses from No. 1 to No. 28.  There's […]


Tyreek Hill - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Injury News, DFS Picks

2024 Fantasy Football Rankings (Weekly Rankings)

Check out all of RotoBaller's fantasy football rankings. Staff rankings are updated regularly for all positions and include standard formats, PPR scoring, tiered rankings and dynasty leagues.


George Pickens - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL injury News

Fantasy Football Matchups We Love - Start 'Em, Sit 'Em Picks for Week 11 Include Drake London, Justin Herbert, Joe Mixon, George Pickens, Chase Brown

Joe Burrow and Lamar Jackson lit the world on fire on Thursday Night Football to send fantasy managers into a love/hate frenzy heading into the weekend. Unfortunately, the weekend did not deliver the same level of goodness that fantasy managers were hoping for. There were several duds from players fantasy managers have come to expect […]


Tampa Bay Bucs Defense D/ST Streamers, Rankings, Waiver Wire - Vita Vea Fantasy Football IDP

Top Fantasy Football D/ST Rankings (Weeks 11, 12, 13, 14) - Defense Streamers and Starts

Welcome, RotoBallers, to our fantasy football D/ST streamers and starts for Weeks 11, 12, 13, and 14 -- looking at the next four weeks and identifying the best D/ST matchups. Streaming defenses each week is a strategy that some fantasy managers have adopted over the years, and looking ahead weeks in advance could give you an […]


Mike Williams - Fantasy Football Waiver Wire, Rankings, Sleepers

Week 11 Waiver Wire Rankings (2024) - Fantasy Football Pickups Include Audric Estime, Quentin Johnston, Ricky Pearsall, Taysom Hill, Mike Williams

The fantasy football playoffs are rapidly approaching, as most leagues have four weeks left in the regular season. At RotoBaller HQ, we have more waiver wire advice with our Week 11 fantasy football waiver wire rankings for 2024 to help add those players for that playoff push. There were more crucial injuries in last week, […]


Christian McCaffrey - Fantasy Football Rankings, DFS and Betting Picks, NFL Injury News

Rest-of-Season Fantasy Football Rankings: Week 11 Updates for Top 200 (2024)

It's the thick of November with four games left before the playoffs for many of you, which means it's time for an updated rest-of-season rankings chart! We keep sifting through evolving developments, such as key players returning from injuries or dealing with fragile quarterback situations. Let's see who is rising and falling with our Week […]


Calvin Ridley - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

Fantasy Football Trade Targets - Buy/Sell For Week 11 Including Najee Harris, Christian McCaffrey, Calvin Ridley, Brian Thomas Jr.

I'm not sure how we are at this point in the season already, but the end of Week 11 marks the trade deadline in most fantasy football leagues. The past 10 weeks have flown by, despite the countless ups and downs that have brought us immeasurable joy and pain. Fortunately, I avoided pain with my […]


Nick Chubb - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Injury News, DFS Lineup Picks

Fantasy Football Matchups to Target, Avoid (Week 11) - Offensive Line Champs and Chumps

Week 10 featured an excellent Thursday night game but plenty of struggles on Sunday and Monday. Some rough offensive performances from historically reliable players this season made fantasy scoring hard to come by for many. The injuries kept racking up along offensive lines across the league. In Week 10, 18 teams were missing at least […]


younghoe koo fantasy football rankings news NFL DFS lineup picks

Week 11 Kicker Streamers and Starts - 2024 Fantasy Tiers, Rankings

As we head into Week 11, some essential kickers, including Chase McLaughlin of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, are on bye. McLaughlin currently sits fifth among fantasy kickers. If McLaughlin has been a staple in your lineup, you need a replacement this week. Eddy Pineiro (Carolina Panthers), Chad Ryland (Arizona Cardinals), and Graham Gano (New York […]


Derek Carr - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

Fact or Fiction: Fantasy Football Outlooks for Derek Carr, Austin Ekeler, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Tylan Wallace, Tanner Hudson

Week 10 of the NFL is behind us, and it's time to look ahead to next week's action. There were some surprising performances in the 10th week of the season, but were those surprising performances a sign of things to come for players? Every week, I'll examine five NFL players whose numbers from the previous […]