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I'm here to do something that I probably can't actually do, help you find wins late in the draft. That's a very inspiring sentence, I know, but I'm an honest guy and I'm not going to sit here and tell you that I'm able to pontificate about which pitchers will earn lots of wins this year.
However, just because something is very difficult to do, does not mean it's impossible. I am confident that, using what we know about where wins come from, I can at least give you some names that are more likely than average to outpace their ADP in the wins category.
While pitcher wins are going by the wayside in some roto leagues in favor of quality starts, most of us still need to find wins where we can get them. Here's your best shot:
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Death of the Win?
Pitcher wins have come harder to come by over the last few years. Don't take my word for it, take the word of this graph I'm shoving in your face like I always do:
That line represents the percent of pitcher starts that result in a win. In 2020 we reached a new low of 26.7%. This has multiple causes, but one is certainly that pitchers are throwing fewer innings per game:
Last season was certainly a special case in both regards, with how strange the lead-up to the season was and the expanded rosters that gave teams deeper bullpens, but you can see that both of these things were on the downtrend even before 2020.
Chances are, 2021 will be a lot like 2020 with teams really reigning in their starters' workloads. This will likely results in another win rate below 29%, meaning wins may be at a premium in your fantasy league.
What To Look For
Innings, dummy!
You can see that the more innings you throw in a game, the more likely you are to earn a victory. This is a pretty obvious thing to say, of course, but it's true! The graph is also a little deceptive because the innings are not truly the cause of earning the win, pitching well is the cause. Pitching well causes you to throw more innings which causes you to earn more wins. So essentially what I'm saying is, draft good pitchers if you want to get wins. Groundbreaking.
If we control for performance here and restrict the graph to only starts where the pitcher allowed exactly three earned runs, here's what it looks like:
I had to cut the graph off at seven because there just are not examples of pitchers going more than seven innings and giving up three earned runs over the last few seasons. You can see that this graph flattens out a bit but still trends upwards, especially after you get over six innings pitched.
Something else to be taken from this is that you cannot get deeper into the game while playing on a team that doesn't allow you to do so. There are some teams that let their starters go deeper into games than others, here are the top and bottom-10 in average innings pitched per start over the last two seasons.
Top 10 IP/GS
| Team | IP/GS |
| CLE | 5.9 |
| HOU | 5.7 |
| WAS | 5.6 |
| NYM | 5.6 |
| CHC | 5.5 |
| COL | 5.4 |
| ARI | 5.4 |
| STL | 5.4 |
| LAD | 5.4 |
| PHI | 5.3 |
Bottom 10 IP/GS
| Team | IP/GS |
| TBR | 4.1 |
| LAA | 4.6 |
| TOR | 4.7 |
| DET | 4.9 |
| BAL | 4.9 |
| MIL | 5.0 |
| BOS | 5.0 |
| SDP | 5.0 |
| NYY | 5.1 |
| TEX | 5.1 |
A lot of the above does have to do with how good these teams starting rotations are. Clearly, the Astros were going to be near the top of this list after getting so many of their starts from Gerrit Cole, Justin Verlander, and Zack Greinke (and the reverse is certainly true with teams like the Orioles and Rangers), but there is something there. The Indians are certainly a team that is very liberal with their SP innings and the Rays are the opposite. This could all change for 2021, so it's important to keep an eye on pitch counts early on and see if any teams are letting their starters throw more pitchers than others.
Another completely obvious thing to look for also be team quality. The Dodgers are going to win more games than the Pirates this year, probably at least 30 more games, giving them many more opportunities for starter wins. Focusing on team quality can help you add some more wins to your slate. Just for funsies, here's the top 10 and bottom-10 in starter win rate over the last two seasons.
Top 10 Win%
| Team | Win% |
| HOU | 45% |
| CLE | 42% |
| NYY | 38% |
| OAK | 37% |
| WAS | 36% |
| LAD | 35% |
| CHC | 35% |
| ATL | 35% |
| STL | 34% |
| MIN | 34% |
Bottom 10 Win%
| Team | Win% |
| DET | 18% |
| TOR | 20% |
| BAL | 20% |
| MIA | 23% |
| LAA | 23% |
| TBR | 23% |
| KCR | 24% |
| SFG | 24% |
| TEX | 26% |
| SDP | 26% |
Mid-Round Draft Targets for Wins
Here are some names that fit in here that you might be able to squeeze an above-average amount of wins from this year:
Zack Wheeler, Philadelphia Phillies
He's not really a "cheap" starting pitcher here, but at 96 on the current ADP board, there are certainly lots of starters more expensive. Wheeler checks the two main boxes here. Since 2018, Wheeler is fifth in the league in innings pitched per start at 6.3, and he is on a team that should be above .500 this year.
At age 30, he is well past the age where his team might want to really keep his innings in check, and while he still does have a few years left on the contract, I think he's as good a bet as anybody to clear 170+ innings this year, which should help his win projection.
Jose Berrios, Minnesota Twins
Berrios is number 23 on the innings per start leaderboard over the last three seasons, and the Twins should once again be a team that wins 90 games or so. The Twins also have an above-average bullpen, or so it would seem right now at least, with the addition of Alex Colome in the offseason.
Berrios is not a fantasy ace by any means, but he seems like a good bet to throw a bunch of innings on a good team this year, which makes his ADP of 84 seem pretty good from a wins perspective.
German Marquez, Colorado Rockies
The Rockies probably aren't going to win many games this year after losing Nolan Arenado and playing in one of the best divisions in baseball. However, the one thing Marquez has going for him is that the Rockies really let him go for it. He's averaged 6.1 innings per start over the last three seasons despite seeing his WHIP and ERA victimized by his home ballpark. The one category that Coors Field doesn't hurt a pitcher in is wins, and in fact, it can result in a lot of pretty easy wins for pitchers that can reach five innings when the Rockies really go off offensively.
Since joining the Rockies, Marquez has won 37% of his starts in Coors Field, a number that is nearly 10% above the league average. It is always really nerve-wracking to start Marquez in Coors, but you should get a nice supply of wins from him.
Zack Greinke, Houston Astros
Gotta love the veterans this year, especially the ones who have continued to show that they know how to get outs and go deep into games. Greinke is seventh in the league in innings pitched per start over the last three seasons, and while the Astros did lose George Springer, they should once again be a winning team.
Greinke is one of the safest bets in the league to go over 160 innings this year, and he should be able to turn those innings into a good amount of wins. He's a great selection after pick 100.
Dallas Keuchel, Chicago White Sox
Despite Keuchel aging further and further away from his Cy Young self, he has still continued to get deep into games with his incredibly low walk rate. He has averaged 5.95 innings per start over the last three years, and now he finds himself with one of the league's best offenses behind him.
He is going to be a liability in strikeouts and probably WHIP as well, but Keuchel should be a safe bet for double-digit wins at an ADP near 200.
Starters Following Openers
One little hack to use to raise your chances of getting a win on a given day is to get the guy that is following the opener into your lineup. The reason for this is that when a pitcher starts the game, he is required to pitch five innings to qualify for a win. However, when an opener comes in and starts the game, the next guy into the game has no innings pitched requirement to be eligible for a win. This has resulted in higher than normal win rates.
We can look to the Rays to provide some evidence of this. Over the last three seasons, Ryan Yarbrough has won 48% of his relief appearances and just 17% of his starts. Yonny Chirinos has benefitted in the same way at 42% in his relief appearances and 21% in his starts. There's not a ton of data on this, but really it makes perfect sense that you would win more often when all you have to do is throw a couple of effective innings and then have your team lead the whole game to earn a win. You can seriously raise win expectations when you plug in a starter that is following an opener.
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