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As fantasy managers prepare for the final stretch of season-long fantasy drafts, we have a few sleeper or bust picks to analyze in this article. It's sure to be a wild fantasy baseball and MLB season, and knowing who to target and who to fade in drafts is key,
Kyle Schwarber, Alexis Diaz, and Spencer Steer are all interesting fantasy targets this year, so all three are worth diving into for last-minute draft preparation.
Should you draft Schwarber, Diaz, or Steer in fantasy baseball? Read the draft recommendations and 2024 fantasy outlooks for each player below.
Kyle Schwarber Fantasy Baseball Value
BALLER MOVE: Target in drafts ~pick 71
Current ADP: ~pick 62
Analysis: Meet the poster boy of three-true-outcome hitters, Philadelphia Phillies outfielder Kyle Schwarber. Since joining the team as a free agent in the 2022 offseason, Schwarber has struck out more times (415) than any other batter. What Schwarber lacks in batting average, however, he more than makes up for with elite power offerings and on-base skills. The slugging two-time All-Star may have missed out on his third career midsummer classic and hit under the Mendoza line in 2023, but he slashed a unique .197/.343/.474 with 47 home runs, 19 doubles, a career-high 104 RBI, and 108 runs scored in 720 plate appearances over 160 games.
KYLE SCHWARBER DEMOLISHES THE FIRST PITCH HE SEES pic.twitter.com/YWACoTyEZc
— NBC Sports Philadelphia (@NBCSPhilly) August 27, 2023
After stealing a career-best 10 bases in 2022, the slow-running Schwarber proved that may have been an anomaly by coming up empty in that area a year ago. Though Schwarber projects as Philadelphia's everyday designated hitter and leadoff man in 2024, don't expect the 30-year-old to swipe more than a handful of bags. Schwarber's lack of consistent contact also lends itself to a regular dose of hot and cold streaks throughout the course of the campaign, making the former Silver Slugger a category-specific fantasy proposition.
One thing is for certain, though, a healthy Schwarber is going to mash plenty of homers and score lots of runs atop a robust Phillies lineup. Just don't expect much in the way of BA and speed. Treat Schwarber as a top-50 guy in OBP and points leagues for his propensity to draw free passes (17.5% walk rate) as well as for punt-average builds in 5x5 mixed formats.
Alexis Diaz Fantasy Baseball Value
BALLER MOVE: Target in drafts ~pick 105
Current ADP: ~pick 91
Analysis: Cincinnati Reds right-hander Alexis Diaz finished the 2023 season with 37 saves, the fourth-most in baseball, with a solid 1.19 WHIP but a lackluster 3.07 ERA across 67 innings. Diaz relied on two pitches consistently with a slight favor to his slider, which he threw 51.5% of the time to his four-seam. His slider produced a 16-run value, according to Baseball Savant. In contrast, his fastball was graded as a negative six-run value (a positive run value means a good matchup for that pitch versus hitters). His slider produced an expected batting average of .176, while his fastball produced a higher number at .217. Another more significant cause of concern was how he performed after the All-Star Break.
During the second half of the season, the 27-year-old posted a hefty 4.61 ERA and 1.43 WHIP compared to his first half, where he threw a solid 2.03 ERA and dominant 1.03 WHIP. Consistency was a concern for Diaz as he disappointed fantasy managers down the stretch. Still, ATC projects him for a hefty number of saves at 30 with an increase in an ERA of 3.85, making him a decent, but not great pick at ADP.
Spencer Steer Fantasy Baseball Value
BALLER MOVE: Target in drafts ~pick 107
Current ADP: ~pick 97
Analysis: The 26-year-old Spencer Steer didn't receive the hype of many of his highly-regarded teammates, but he still delivered a .271/.356/.464 line with 23 HR and 15 SB over 665 PAs for his fantasy managers in 2023. Steer doesn't have eye-popping tools, instead relying on volume for his production. For example, you aren't impressed with his 92.9 mph average airborne exit velocity, 6.7% rate of Brls/BBE, or his max exit velocity of 110.6 mph. However, Steer hit 43% of his batted balls in the air and plays in the best ballpark for home runs per Statcast, so we can expect him to accumulate 20-25 HR again as the club's everyday left fielder.
Have yourself a day, Spencer Steer!
He smashes a two-run double and has a homer and three RBIs so far today!
He is batting .340 this spring.
💥💥#RedsST | @spenc__er pic.twitter.com/eSRhmnm9ka
— Bally Sports Cincinnati (@BallySportsCIN) March 24, 2024
Similarly, Steer's 28.4 ft./sec Statcast Sprint Speed is more good than great but his 83% success rate on SB attempts should keep the green light. Steer possesses a good eye that should keep his strikeouts in check (27.7% chase rate, 20.9 K% in 2023), but his .250 xBA suggests his average might decline a little.
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