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Discovering sleepers is a vital part of the fantasy baseball process. Finding a quality sleeper can often be the difference between a championship team and a bust.
One of the more interesting sleeper prospects heading into the 2022 MLB season is Pittsburgh Pirates shortstop Oneil Cruz.
Let's dig in to see if he can be a draft value in fantasy baseball and how likely that is to happen.
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Expected Outcome
There are many ways to view a fantasy baseball selection but one of the best ways is to look at the expected outcome, best-case scenario, and worst-case scenario for every player. This process becomes even more important when evaluating sleepers.
In the case of Oneil Cruz, the BAT X on Fangraphs gives Cruz 476 plate appearances, 14 home runs, 55 runs, 53 runs batted in, and 10 stolen bases with a .246 batting average and a 91 wRC+ (see below). Cruz's ADP sits a 221.03, which places him between Brandon Crawford and Gavin Lux. He currently slides into the back end of the everyday shortstop tier. The projections from the BAT X aren't exciting but the fact that Cruz would provide value in every category outside of batting average is very intriguing, to say the least.
Best-Case Scenario
Now that we have set a baseline of expectation for Oneil Cruz with the help of the Bat X, what is the best-case scenario for Oneil Cruz? Well, Fangraphs has given Cruz a 60 future value which outlines their expectations for him to become a superstar at some point. Furthermore, across nine plate appearances in 2021, Cruz displayed a max exit velocity of 118.2 MPH, which is the highest by any shortstop last year. That's a showcase of power from the 23-year-old that should excite even the most weathered fantasy baseball player.
It's not just the power. Cruz managed 19 stolen bases across 22 attempts, good for an 86% success rate. That success rate shows the baseball intelligence and speed needed to steal bases at the big league level. Furthermore, the speed Cruz has displayed will boost his batting average floor. Just look at the top five players in BABIP from 2021. Tim Anderson, Starling Marte, Austin Riley, Tyler O'Neil, and Randy Arozarena. What do all of these players have in common? They all placed in the 69th percentile or better in sprint speed.
The best-case scenario for Cruz includes top-tier power with quality speed, good stolen base numbers, and a solid batting average.
Worst-Case Scenario
We've looked at the expected outcome and best-case scenario for Oneil Cruz but what is the worst-case scenario? Cruz is expected to be a quality shortstop for the Pirates but there is no rule that says that will happen this season. There are countless examples of superstars who struggled in their first appearance at the big league level before taking off. Mike Trout, arguably one of the greatest players in baseball history, hit .220 with an 87 wRC+ across 135 PA in his first MLB appearance. That, of course, is what Cruz could be in for.
He plays for an abysmal Pirates team in a pitcher-friendly ballpark. If he struggles out of the gate, the Pirates are under no obligation to keep their future star shortstop in the big leagues. The worst-case scenario for Cruz involves a quick demotion after a month or two of struggling through his first extended MLB stay. After that, Cruz could spend the rest of the season either up and down between Triple-A and MLB or the Pirates let him marinate in the minors for another year. Either scenario would mean a wasted draft pick and a hole on your roster.
Conclusion
Your interest in Oneil Cruz for the 2022 season should be entirely reliant on what kind of league you are playing in and who else is available at shortstop. For example, if you can pair Brandon Crawford, who is expected to play nearly every day for the Giants, with Oneil Cruz, then investing in Cruz's upside is a good choice. However, relying on Cruz as your primary shortstop production would be foolish considering his massive downside. Either pair Cruz with a veteran who is going to play every day or avoid Cruz altogether.
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