X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Batter BABIP: Using Sabermetrics for Fantasy Baseball

The most accessible of the fantasy-relevant advanced stats is BABIP, or Batting Average on Balls In Play. It simply measures a player's batting average on balls in play, with outcomes such as strikeouts and home runs removed from consideration. In general, the league average hovers around .300, a nice round number to remember.

Many know BABIP as an approximation of luck, with either a very high or very low number indicative of a major batting average regression in the future. That is partially correct--the stat can be used to predict batting average fluctuations. However, a player's skills may allow him to run a better than average BABIP, or doom him to a consistently below-average figure.

There are two primary sources to look up a player's BABIP: FanGraphs and Baseball-Reference. They don't always have the same figures, and FanGraphs tends to be preferred because the site lets you look at BABIP by batted ball type (more on that below). Just type in a player's name in the search bar provided and his BABIP is displayed in the first chart that pops up. Now that you know where to find BABIP, let's explore how to use it.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

The Above-Average BABIP Formula

Starling Marte put in a tremendous season that won fantasy leagues in 2021, slashing .310/.383/.458 with 47 SB for the Marlins and Athletics. One of the reasons for his success was a .372 BABIP, so Marte loses a lot of value if we regress that all the way to .300. Should we really do that?

Marte's career BABIP is .344. Hiss 2021 BABIP was considerably higher than his career average, so we don't want to bank on a full repeat. Still, his career mark is closer to his 2021 performance than the league's. What skills does Marte possess that allow him to crush the average player?

Marte's game-changing speed is one key point in his favor. You have to be fast to steal 47 bags, and that same speed allows Marte to leg out hits consistently on batted balls that other players would get nothing out of.

Looking at BABIP by batted ball type can be a great tool for examining this. Marte gets his speedster hits exclusively on grounders, as running really fast does nothing to prevent a fielder from catching a ball in the air. While the league averaged a .236 BABIP on grounders in 2021, Marte posted a .315 mark on them. His career rate is only .290. Therefore, we can conclude that Marte should continue to outperform the league average on ground balls because his .290 career BABIP is much higher than the league average. However, he is unlikely to do so to the same extent he did in 2021.

Comparing BABIPs for the other batted-ball types year over year is something of a mixed bag for Marte. His fly balls found pay dirt much less frequently, posting a BABIP of .105 against a career mark of .146. However, his line drives fared considerably better (.766 BABIP last year) than they have in the past (.675 career). Overall, both figures should be expected to regress to the mean and roughly cancel each other out. When we factor in slight regression based on ground balls above, we should probably expect Marte to fall shy of last season's BABIP while still clearing .300 easily.

BABIP takes multiple seasons to stabilize (or become predictive), and you need to avoid rushing to conclusions when using it. A rookie who posts a .380 BABIP should not be expected to keep it up because that's suddenly his baseline.

 

The Below-Average BABIP Formula

The same trend is possible in a negative way. For example, fantasy managers know Carlos Santana as a potential power source who will drain your roster's batting average thanks in large part to a consistently low BABIP. Last season, Santana posted a BABIP of just .227, creating batting average upside if you think it will regress to .300. Unfortunately for Santana, that isn't happening.

While Marte's speed grants him extra base hits, Santana's lack of it means that he is retired on grounders that average players can beat out. He also hit just 6.1% of his ground balls to the opposite field, allowing opposing defenders to cheat to one side with an infield shift. The result was a .221 BABIP on grounders that was actually better than his career mark of .196.

That's not the end of Santana's problems though. He also hits an above-average number of pop-ups with a 14.6 infield fly ball (or IFFB%) rate last season and 13.7% for his career. Pop-ups are nearly always caught with minimal difficulty, so players who hit a ton of them tend to run low BABIPs. Sure enough, Santana's career BABIP on flies of .117 looks great compared to the .066 he put up last season. It's easy to see why the 35-year-old Santana has only one season with an above-average BABIP, and it came back in 2013.

 

Conclusion

To conclude, BABIP can be used to indirectly measure a player's batting average luck by comparing it not to the league average of .300 but to an established player's career number. Younger players without an established baseline are generally regressed to the league average, but these predictions are less reliable than those based on a player's personal history.

Foot speed, batted ball authority, line drive rate, and defensive positioning all give players some ability to manipulate BABIP. Players with these skills may still overachieve, and this regression can be predicted by examining BABIP by batted ball type. Review these additional concepts to learn more about how sabermetrics can give you an advantage as a fantasy baseball manager!

More Sabermetrics & Fantasy Baseball Strategy




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Jackson Jobe5 hours ago

Inefficient In First Career Start Monday
Tyler Glasnow5 hours ago

Fans Eight, Earns Win In Monday Debut
MLB5 hours ago

Kash Mayfield Assigned To Single-A
José Ramírez5 hours ago

Jose Ramirez Collects Three Hits, Homers In Monday Return To Lineup
Kyle Hart5 hours ago

Earns Win In Return To MLB
Ryan Johnson5 hours ago

Earns First Career Save Monday
Travis Kuhn5 hours ago

And Phillies In Agreement On Minor League Deal
Mike Trout5 hours ago

Turns In Another Hitless Performance Monday
Jordan Hicks5 hours ago

Earns Quality Start, Win In Season Debut Monday
Kyle Schwarber6 hours ago

Homers, Collects Two RBI On Monday
Jake Eder6 hours ago

Acquired By The Angels
Alexander Canario7 hours ago

Acquired By The Pirates
Sam Stevens8 hours ago

Enjoyed Nice Result In Houston
Cristopher Sánchez8 hours ago

Cristopher Sanchez Strikes Out Seven In Strong Outing On Monday
PGA8 hours ago

J.T. Poston Seeks To Contend At Valero Texas Open
Ochai Agbaji8 hours ago

Resting On Tuesday
Kris Bubic8 hours ago

Notches Eight Strikeouts In Strong Win On Monday
RJ Barrett8 hours ago

To Be Rested Tuesday Night
Martín Pérez8 hours ago

Martin Perez Dazzles Twins On Monday, Throws Six Hitless Innings
Immanuel Quickley8 hours ago

Returning To Action Against Bulls
Bryan De La Cruz8 hours ago

Draws First Start Of Season On Monday Night
Jakob Poeltl8 hours ago

Available On Tuesday
Reynaldo López8 hours ago

Reynaldo Lopez Lands On 15-day IL With Shoulder Inflammation
Jonathan Kuminga8 hours ago

Uncertain For Tuesday's Game
Max Scherzer8 hours ago

Visiting With Hand Specialist On Monday
Christian Braun8 hours ago

Listed As Probable For Meeting With Timberwolves
José Ramírez8 hours ago

Jose Ramirez Back In Lineup For Cleveland On Monday
Aaron Gordon8 hours ago

Tagged As Questionable For Tuesday
Freddie Freeman9 hours ago

Absent From Lineup For Monday Night
Jamal Murray9 hours ago

Iffy For Tuesday
LeBron James9 hours ago

Ready To Play Against Rockets
Nikola Jokić9 hours ago

Nikola Jokic Expected To Play Against Timberwolves
Trae Young9 hours ago

Likely To Face Portland
Bradley Beal9 hours ago

Could Return On Tuesday
Giannis Antetokounmpo9 hours ago

Probable For Tuesday's Action
CJ McCollum9 hours ago

Shut Down For The Rest Of The Season
Denny McCarthy10 hours ago

Keeps Making Cuts But Needs To Make More Putts
Zion Williamson10 hours ago

Won't Play Again This Season
Brian Harman10 hours ago

Off To A Subpar 2025 So Far
Jaylin Williams10 hours ago

Back In Thunder Lineup Monday
Isaiah Hartenstein10 hours ago

Will Play On Monday
Chet Holmgren10 hours ago

Available Against Bulls
Dereck Lively II10 hours ago

Downgraded To Out Monday
Caleb Martin10 hours ago

Active On Monday
Daniel Gafford10 hours ago

Back In Action With Minutes Restriction
Ryan Weathers10 hours ago

Ramping Up His Throwing Progression
Ilya Samsonov12 hours ago

Nursing An Upper-Body Injury
Tomas Hertl12 hours ago

To Sit Out At Least One More Week
Garnet Hathaway12 hours ago

Rejoins Flyers Lineup
Erik Johnson12 hours ago

Available Monday
Rasmus Ristolainen12 hours ago

Not Expected To Return This Season
Ryan Preece12 hours ago

Has Three Straight Top-10 Finishes For First Time In His Career
Colton Sissons12 hours ago

Likely Out For Rest Of The Season
NASCAR12 hours ago

Bubba Wallace After Third-Place Finish At Martinsville: "What a Great Day"
Jonathan Marchessault12 hours ago

Day-To-Day With Lower-Body Injury
Todd Gilliland13 hours ago

Has Mistake-Free Day At Martinsville, Grabs Another Top-10 Finish
Brandon Moreno13 hours ago

Wins Back-To-Back Fights
Steve Erceg13 hours ago

Losses Third Consecutive Fight
Drew Dober13 hours ago

Gets Knocked Out At UFC Mexico City
Manuel Torres13 hours ago

Gets Back In The Win Column
Harry Hall13 hours ago

Bounces Back In Houston Last Week
Denver Broncos13 hours ago

Denver To Take A Running Back In The Draft
CJ Vergara13 hours ago

Gets Submitted
Ryan Fox13 hours ago

Showing Improvement Heading Into The Valero Texas Open
Édgar Cháirez13 hours ago

Edgar Chairez Gets Submission Win At UFC Mexico City
Courtland Sutton14 hours ago

"No Timeline" On Courtland Sutton Extension
Vince Morales14 hours ago

Drops Decision At UFC Mexico City
Raul Rosas Jr.14 hours ago

Gets Decision Win At UFC Mexico City
New York Jets14 hours ago

Jets To Wait On Contract Extensions For Garrett Wilson, Sauce Gardner
Saimon Oliveira14 hours ago

Still Winless In The UFC
David Martinez14 hours ago

Wins His UFC Debut
Jameson Williams14 hours ago

Detroit To Exercise Jameson Williams' Fifth-Year Option
Kevin Borjas14 hours ago

Earns His First UFC Win
Brandon Aiyuk14 hours ago

49ers Expected To Hold Brandon Aiyuk
Ronaldo Rodríguez14 hours ago

Ronaldo Rodriguez Suffers His First UFC Loss
Joel Dahmen15 hours ago

Scores Top-20 Finish At Texas Children's Houston Open
Jacob Bridgeman15 hours ago

Had Some Rest Heading Into The Valero
Sami Valimaki15 hours ago

Finishes Fourth At Texas Children's Houston Open
Maverick McNealy15 hours ago

Finishes Tied For 32nd At Texas Children’s Houston Open
Tom Kim15 hours ago

Finishes Tied For 36th At Valspar Championship
Rickie Fowler15 hours ago

Finishes Tied For 52nd At Texas Children’s Houston Open
Bud Cauley15 hours ago

Finishes Tied For Fourth At Valspar Championship
Sam Burns15 hours ago

Misses The Cut At Valspar Championship
Daniel Berger15 hours ago

Finishes Tied For 20th At The PLAYERS Championship
Ludvig Aberg15 hours ago

Misses The Cut At The PLAYERS Championship
Treylon Burks17 hours ago

Unlikely To Be Ready For Training Camp
Keenan Allen17 hours ago

Chargers Not Ruling Out Reuniting With Keenan Allen
Breece Hall17 hours ago

Could Be Part Of Committee In 2025
James Cook17 hours ago

Bills Not Close To Extension With James Cook
Tyreek Hill17 hours ago

Dolphins Planning On Tyreek Hill Being Part Of Their Future
Baltimore Ravens17 hours ago

Ravens Expected To Draft A Kicker
Mark Andrews18 hours ago

Ravens Expect Mark Andrews Back In 2025
Lamar Jackson18 hours ago

Ravens Have Had Early Extension Talks With Lamar Jackson
Christopher Bell18 hours ago

Powers His Way To A Second-Place Finish At Martinsville
Chase Elliott18 hours ago

Strong Martinsville Performance Ends With A Top-Five Finish
Kyle Larson19 hours ago

Collects A Top-Five Finish At Martinsville
William Byron19 hours ago

Places 22nd After Struggles At Martinsville
Joey Logano19 hours ago

Claims His First 2025 Top-10 Finish After Up-And-Down Performance
Tyler Reddick20 hours ago

Fails To Place In The Top 10 At Martinsville
Joseph Woll23 hours ago

Stands Tall On Sunday
UTA23 hours ago

Alex Kerfoot Leads The Way In Sunday's Victory
Tristan Jarry23 hours ago

Shuts The Door On Ottawa On Sunday
Sebastian Aho23 hours ago

Busy In Sunday's Victory
Anze Kopitar23 hours ago

Tallies Three Helpers On Sunday
Troy Terry23 hours ago

Exits Early On Sunday
Denny Hamlin1 day ago

Silences Doubters After Crew-Chief Change
Ty Gibbs1 day ago

Earns Best 2025 Finish At Martinsville Despite Failing Cool Suit
Ross Chastain1 day ago

Has A Great Day At Martinsville
Chase Briscoe1 day ago

Has Solid Run At Martinsville
Erik Jones1 day ago

Disqualified At Martinsville For Weight Violation
Zach Wilson1 day ago

Still Views Himself As A Starter
New York Giants1 day ago

Victor Dimukeje Signs With Giants
Dallas Cowboys1 day ago

Brian Schottenheimer Optimistic About Deal With Micah Parsons
Lane Hutson1 day ago

Continues Special Campaign With Hat Trick Of Assists
Nick Suzuki2 days ago

Notches Three Points In Sunday's Win
Robby Fabbri2 days ago

Not Expected To Return This Season
Jacob Trouba2 days ago

Could Be An Option Sunday
Jordan Staal2 days ago

Will Not Play On Sunday
Evgeni Malkin2 days ago

Out Against Senators
Justin Fields2 days ago

Aaron Glenn Thinks Justin Fields Is Ready To Break Out
Dak Prescott2 days ago

"Doing Great" In Rehab From Hamstring Surgery
Jacksonville Jaguars2 days ago

Fred Johnson Signs With Jacksonville
Tennessee Titans2 days ago

Titans Still Entertaining Calls For No. 1 Overall Pick
Karel Vejmelka2 days ago

Makes 17th Consecutive Start Sunday
Arvid Soderblom2 days ago

Tries To End Four-Game Skid Sunday
Brandon Aiyuk2 days ago

Deadline Coming For Brandon Aiyuk
Josh Berry2 days ago

Has Top-10 Upside At Martinsville
Joey Logano2 days ago

Don't Overlook Joey Logano This Weekend
Ryan Preece2 days ago

Could Get First Three-Race Top-10 Streak Of His Career
Chase Elliott2 days ago

Looking To Continue Great Runs At Martinsville
Christopher Bell2 days ago

Wins Pole At Martinsville, But Can He Stay Up There?
Ryan Blaney2 days ago

Fast In Practice But Skeptical About Car
Denny Hamlin2 days ago

New Crew Chief Has Terrible Martinsville Record
Steve Erceg4 days ago

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Brandon Moreno4 days ago

A Favorite At UFC Mexico City
Manuel Torres4 days ago

Set For Co-Main Event
Drew Dober4 days ago

An Underdog At UFC Mexico City
Joe Pyfer4 days ago

Looks To Win Back-To-Back Fights
Kelvin Gastelum4 days ago

Set For Middleweight Matchup
Vince Morales4 days ago

In Dire Need Of Victory
Raul Rosas Jr.4 days ago

Looks To Extend His Win Streak
Saimon Oliveira4 days ago

Looks For His First UFC Win
Jhonattan Vegas6 days ago

Not A Good Play At Houston Open
Gary Woodland6 days ago

A Dark-Horse Candidate At Houston Open
Nick Taylor6 days ago

Keep An Eye On Nick Taylor At Houston Open
Mackenzie Hughes6 days ago

Avoid Mackenzie Hughes At Houston Open
Nicolai Hojgaard6 days ago

Looking To Rebound At Houston Open
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF