Later-Round Values for Runs - Fantasy Baseball Category Boosters

If you target power-hitting early in your fantasy baseball drafts, you may be near the bottom in run projections, as most of the players bat in the heart of a lineup and not near the top. Many of these sluggers are responsible for bringing in runs and not scoring them. However, several options are going late in drafts that carry elite run-scoring upside.

While some of these players may carry little upside in other categories, they are proven run scorers and will significantly boost that category, with a handful of them contributing to two or more. When looking for players who can score runs, fantasy managers should target players in potent lineups and more importantly, those who are projected to bat at the top of the order.

In this piece, I will analyze six players who are going in the final rounds of drafts who are potential fantasy baseball sleepers for runs and can boost your runs production. Be sure to keep following @RotoBallerMLB and me @A_SMITH_FS on X for more league-winning offseason content. Let's dive in!

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Jurickson Profar, OF, Atlanta Braves

ADP: 208

Jurickson Profar inked a three-year, $42 million contract with the Atlanta Braves earlier this offseason. This contract suggests he will be the everyday left fielder in Atlanta.

Last summer, Profar enjoyed a career season in San Diego as he held a .280/.380/.459 line with 24 home runs and 10 stolen bases. He tallied 94 runs and 85 RBI, which were both also career-bests.

His high run total was credited to his elite on-base skills. The switch-hitter drew walks at an elite 11.4 percent rate. He also generated a stellar .282 xBA and a .364 xwOBA, placing him in the 92nd percentile in both statistics.

Given that his metrics suggest that he should continue to get on base at an excellent rate, Profar should be in line for a high total of runs, likely batting in front of Austin Riley and Marcell Ozuna.

In addition, while Ronald Acuna Jr. (knee) is still sidelined in the early part of the season, Profar may even bat in the leadoff spot. If Profar can hold the leadoff spot all season, he has a path to eclipsing 100 runs.

Jurickson Profar is Atlanta’s new LF, coming off a career year: .280/.380/.459.
His elite 11.4% BB rate keeps his OBP high—great for runs in ATL’s lineup.
BB rate stayed ≥11% in 3 of last 4 years. 🔥#FantasyBaseball (ADP: 211 - @TheReal_NFC) pic.twitter.com/pwWuJVR390

— Andy Smith (@A_Smith_FS) January 31, 2025

ATC projects the 31-year-old to tally 77 runs, which places him among players being taken with the top 150 picks.

George Springer, OF, Toronto Blue Jays

ADP: 241

With a similar ADP, George Springer is another strong target when looking to boost your run production. After tallying at least 80 runs in each of his previous two seasons, Springer took a slight step back as he scored just 74 runs in 2024.

His drop in scoring was due to his drop in batting average. Last summer, Springer posted a .220 AVG, a sharp drop from the .267 and .258 AVG he held during the 2022 and 2023 seasons, respectively. While his batting average did drop, Springer still held a solid 9.8 percent walk rate, which was higher than both rates during the previous two seasons.

Lastly, Springer generated a .276 xBA against fastballs, but he only posted an actual .241 BA against them in 2024, which suggests he should be due for some regression.

In a lineup that will welcome an elite power hitter in Anthony Santander, bet on a bounce-back for Springer as he will likely continue to bat in the leadoff spot.

JJ Bleday, OF, Athletics

ADP: 268

My final outfielder to target when looking for runs is JJ Bleday of the Athletics. The center fielder enjoyed a breakout campaign last summer, posting a .243/.324/.437 line with 20 home runs. This was a significant improvement compared to the .195/.310/.355 line with 10 home runs he held in 2023.

Under the hood, he generated a .242 xBA, which suggests that he should see a similar production in 2025. He also held a 10.4 percent walk rate, placing him in the 77th percentile among qualified hitters.

The former fourth overall pick also generated a strong .279 xBA against fastballs, a 50-point increase compared to his 2023 production. He also lowered his ground-ball rate by nine points and raised his fly-ball rate by two points.

JJ BLEDAY!

The A’s entered the bottom of the 11th down 9-5, and now it’s all tied up 9-9!

(via @MLB)pic.twitter.com/MRj72SaqzZ

— FOX Sports: MLB (@MLBONFOX) May 23, 2024

Bleday will have an everyday spot in the Athletics lineup that will now call a minor league park home. Batting in front of power hitters such as Shea Langeliers, Tyler Soderstrom, and Brent Rooker will continue to provide him with elite scoring opportunities.

Jonathan India, 2B, Kansas City Royals

ADP: 250

Jonathan India was traded to the Kansas City Royals in November and is slated to have an everyday role at the keystone. The team did note that it may attempt to give India opportunities at the hot corner and potentially the outfield during spring training, which would only further increase his fantasy value.

Throughout his time with the Cincinnati Reds, India typically was penciled into the leadoff spot in the lineup. In 2024, Maikel Garcia had this role but posted an underwhelming .231 AVG and a .281 OBP. Given that the Royals traded to acquire India, there is a good chance he will continue to operate as a leadoff hitter with his new club.

Last season in Cincinnati, India held a .248/.357/.392 line with 15 home runs and 13 stolen bases. He generated a strong .266 xBA, placing him in the 80th percentile among qualified hitters and implying that he should see some positive regression in 2025. India also had a stellar 12.6 percent walk rate, among the highest marks in the sport.

Batting in front of Bobby Witt Jr., Salvador Perez, and Vinnie Pasquantino makes India a steal at his current ADP. ATC projects him to tally the sixth-most runs at the second base position.

Michael Busch, 1B/3B, Chicago Cubs

ADP: 248

After only getting a small taste of the majors in 2023, Michael Busch was given a full-time role last summer. Across 152 contests, the former top prospect posted a .248/.335/.440 line with 21 home runs. He tallied 73 runs and 65 RBI.

Busch showed a strong eye at the plate with an 11.1 percent walk rate. He also generated a solid 11.2 percent barrel rate and a 36.4 percent LA sweet spot rate, both of which were within the 75th percentile among qualified hitters. He relied heavily on pulling the ball (40.5 percent pull rate) and generated a low 38.8 percent ground-ball rate.

Batting in the top half of a lineup that will welcome superstar Kyle Tucker should give this lineup a substantial boost. Last season, he typically batted in the two-hole against right-handed pitching but occasionally sat against southpaws. However, Busch should have an everyday role at first base with Cody Bellinger and Isaac Paredes off the team.

Busch is a strong target when looking to boost your counting stats at the corner infield position, as he also has upside power.

Sean Murphy, C, Atlanta Braves

ADP: 225

When looking to boost your production behind the dish, make sure to highlight Sean Murphy on your draft board. Murphy had a disappointing campaign in 2024 after posting a career-best .251/.365/.478 line during his first season in Atlanta.

Last summer, across 72 games, he scored just 19 runs and added 25 RBI. However, in 108 games during the 2023 season, Murphy tallied 65 runs and 68 RBI.

While he did battle injuries last season, the Braves also lost Travis d'Arnaud during free agency, which should open the door for Murphy to see many starts and operate as the clear No. 1 backstop.

In 2023, Murphy generated a strong 48.5 percent hard-hit rate and a 16.1 percent barrel rate with a stellar .395 xwOBA. However, in 2024, Murphy saw his hard-hit rate drop nine points, barrel rate drop seven points, and xwOBA plummet to a mere .308 mark.

Even though Murphy will likely bat in the bottom half of the Atlanta lineup, the Braves should be much better with a healthy Michael Harris II, Ozzie Albies, and Ronald Acuna Jr. In 2023, the Braves led the sport with 943 runs. Expect similar production for this lineup this upcoming season.

Late-round catcher target?
Sean Murphy (@TheReal_NFC - 220.4)
🔹 In 2023: 65 R & 68 RBI in just 108 games. 💪
🔹 Disappointing 2024, but d’Arnaud is gone= +ABs
🔹 ATL’s elite lineup = 60+ run upside.
🔹 Outside the top 200? Absolute steal. 🚀 #FantasyBaseball #BravesCountry pic.twitter.com/BTwc8OATqB

— Andy Smith (@A_Smith_FS) February 4, 2025

In two-catcher formats, Murphy is shaping up to be an excellent target when looking to add 60+ run upside outside the top 200.

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