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Rookies don't always pay off their price tag in redraft leagues, but some prospects are teeming with so much upside that they are worth drafting in case they bust out in a big way.
Matt Shaw, Jordan Lawlar, and Drake Baldwin are all interesting fantasy baseball prospects this year, but which of these three are values at their current ADP?
Should you draft Shaw, Lawlar, or Baldwin in fantasy baseball? Read the draft recommendations and 2025 fantasy outlooks for each prospect below.
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Matt Shaw Fantasy Baseball Value
Baller Move: Target in drafts ~pick 215
Current ADP: ~224
The Chicago Cubs took infielder Matt Shaw with the 13th overall pick in the 2023 MLB Draft. In his first taste of pro ball, the youngster breezed through High-A and Double-A, slashing .349/.384/.597 with seven homers, 13 steals, a .431 wOBA, and a 163 wRC+ in 159 plate appearances.
The 2024 season was more of the same, turning into an all-out audition for the Show. The University of Maryland product not only put up good counting stats and even improved some of them at the Triple-A level, but he also showed a more patient approach at the plate.
The former first-rounder saw his batting average go from .279 at Double-A to .298 at Triple-A, putting together a .284-21-71-78-31 stat line overall with a .394 wOBA and 146 wRC+.
Shaw has always struck out at a less-than-average rate, posting an 18.2% K% in 2024, but saw his walk rate increase dramatically year-over-year, from below average (5.3% BB%) in '23 to above average (11.9% BB%) in '24.
The 31 bags he stole in 2024 show that he has some speed as well, which would certainly be a plus for fantasy if he ends up at third base, a position that is generally devoid in that category.
With the Cubs set up in the middle with a pair of Gold Glovers in Dansby Swanson and Nico Hoerner, Shaw's path to playing time is the hot corner.
That path got clearer when the Cubs traded last year's third base acquisition, Isaac Paredes, to the Astros in December. Cubs President Jed Hoyer made that affirmation recently when he stated that Shaw would indeed have an opportunity to win the job come spring.
Right now, the 5-foot-9 prospect is the only real option at third base. The Cubs signed veteran Justin Turner, but at 40 years old, he doesn't have much left in the tank and probably has more value as a leader and mentor than anything he can offer on offense or defense.
Who do you think will win NL Rookie of the Year?
Here's what front office execs had to say: https://t.co/XuHvnzHqrF pic.twitter.com/jjJrvwzRVg
— MLB Pipeline (@MLBPipeline) January 6, 2025
Shaw looks like he'll be manning third for the Cubbies and could easily be a 20/20 player with the proper playing time. He appears primed to outproduce a current NFBC ADP of 232.
Drake Baldwin Fantasy Baseball Value
Baller Move: Target in drafts ~pick 350
Current ADP: ~385
Baldwin has officially secured a spot on the Braves' opening-day roster.
always believed Drake Baldwin was going to hit his way to substantial MLB playing time at some point in 2025 no matter what but this could expedite things
via @TJStats, Baldwin truly demolished AAA pitching last year and he's 24 -- they gotta make room for him soon regardless https://t.co/bO9Japo97k pic.twitter.com/2UPfon11CE
— Céspedes Family BBQ (@CespedesBBQ) March 3, 2025
The 23-year-old backstop put up 16 homers with a 13.1 BB% and 17.2 K% in 551 plate appearances across the minors last season. With Sean Murphy dealing with a rib injury, Baldwin has a chance to take over as catcher.
Imagine a scenario where Baldwin is mashing in a stacked Braves lineup. As a polished hitter with strong plate discipline, this is in the realm of possibilities. In this event, Atlanta would likely stick with Baldwin as the starting catcher, even when Murphy comes back. With that said Baldwin is more of an upside target in 2-C formats or in OBP, where his high walk rate means more.
Jordan Lawlar Fantasy Baseball Value
Baller Move: Target in drafts ~pick 357
Current ADP: ~403
injuries have been the story of Arizona Diamondbacks shortstop Jordan Lawlar's career to this point.
While a relatively healthy 2023 saw him reach 534 plate appearances, he even made it to the Majors as a young 21-year-old. A torn ligament in his thumb saw Lawlar miss the first two months of the season, and shortly after returning, Lawlar strained his hamstring, sidelining him until September 8. He totaled just 104 plate appearances in 2024, slashing .318/.417/.482 with two home runs and nine extra-base hits.
D-backs' top prospect Jordan Lawlar successfully challenged a strike three call and then hit a double
They went on to score two runs in the inning pic.twitter.com/UdByJ8d68Y
— Talkin’ Baseball (@TalkinBaseball_) March 17, 2024
The underlying data suggests that injuries affected him, as his average exit velocity of just 85 mph and the 90th percentile of 101 mph were both significant steps down from 2023. Lawlar controls the barrel and the strike zone well. The contact rates were fine, sitting at 71 percent overall and 81 percent in the zone. He also has shown respectable chase rates, which lead to walks and higher OBPs. Speed is Lawlar's best asset, checking in with 70-grade run times and a strong ability to steal bases.
In his MiLB career, Lawlar has stolen 82 bases and been caught just 13 times. Lawlar struggled in the Dominican Winter League but stole nine bases while slashing .237/.315/.355.
Popular Player Comparison Searches - Who To Draft?
Below are some popular preseason searches and comparisons from our Who To Draft tool for Matt Shaw, Jordan Lawlar, Drake Baldwin compared to others. You can also use the free Who Should I Draft tool to run your own draft comparisons, up to four players at once:
Luis Garcia(2B) or Matt Shaw
Anthony Volpe or Matt Shaw
Connor Norby or Matt Shaw
Jasson Dominguez or Matt Shaw
Haseong Kim or Jordan Lawlar
Jake Burger or Matt Shaw
Jordan Walker or Jordan Lawlar
Junior Caminero or Matt Shaw
Brooks Lee or Jordan Lawlar
Bryan Reynolds or Matt Shaw
Bryson Stott or Matt Shaw
Caleb Durbin or Matt Shaw
Ceddanne Rafaela or Jordan Lawlar
Cj Abrams or Matt Shaw
Garrett Mitchell or Jordan Lawlar
Jackson Merrill or Matt Shaw
Matt Shaw or Jordan Lawlar
Nico Hoerner or Matt Shaw
Quinn Mathews or Jordan Lawlar
Triston Casas or Drake Baldwin
Xander Bogaerts or Matt Shaw
Andres Gimenez or Matt Shaw
Brandon Lowe or Jordan Lawlar
Brice Turang or Jordan Lawlar
Bryan Woo or Matt Shaw
Bubba Chandler or Matt Shaw
Cedric Mullins or Matt Shaw
Christopher Morel or Matt Shaw
Cody Bellinger or Jordan Lawlar
Colson Montgomery or Jordan Lawlar
Colton Cowser or Matt Shaw
Connor Norby or Matt Shaw
Connor Wong or Drake Baldwin
Dansby Swanson or Jordan Lawlar
Dansby Swanson or Matt Shaw
Dylan Crews or Matt Shaw
Dylan Crews or Matt Shaw
Endy Rodriguez or Drake Baldwin
Francisco Lindor or Jordan Lawlar
Garrett Mitchell or Matt Shaw
Geraldo Perdomo or Jordan Lawlar
Gio Urshela or Jordan Lawlar
Gunnar Henderson or Jordan Lawlar
Hunter Brown or Jordan Lawlar
Hunter Greene or Drake Baldwin
Isiah Kinerfalefa or Jordan Lawlar
Jackson Chourio or Matt Shaw
Jackson Holliday or Matt Shaw
Jake Burger or Matt Shaw
Jake Burger or Matt Shaw
Jasson Dominguez or Matt Shaw
Jeff Mcneil or Jordan Lawlar
Jeimer Candelario or Drake Baldwin
Jonathan India or Matt Shaw
Jose Miranda or Jordan Lawlar
Josh Jung or Matt Shaw
Jp Crawford or Matt Shaw
Junior Caminero or Jordan Lawlar
Justin Steele or Matt Shaw
Kristian Campbell or Jordan Lawlar
Kristian Campbell or Jordan Lawlar
Mark Vientos or Drake Baldwin
Mark Vientos or Matt Shaw
Mason Miller or Matt Shaw
Matt Mclain or Matt Shaw
Max Muncy or Matt Shaw
Merrill Kelly or Matt Shaw
Michael Busch or Matt Shaw
Mike Soroka or Jordan Lawlar
Nico Hoerner or Matt Shaw
Nolan Arenado or Matt Shaw
Randy Arozarena or Drake Baldwin
Royce Lewis or Matt Shaw
Ryan Ohearn or Jordan Lawlar
Sandy Alcantara or Matt Shaw
Teoscar Hernandez or Matt Shaw
Trea Turner or Jordan Lawlar
Trevor Story or Matt Shaw
Tyler Fitzgerald or Matt Shaw
Tyler Fitzgerald or Matt Shaw
Tyler Fitzgerald or Matt Shaw
Tyler Oneill or Matt Shaw
Tyler Oneill or Matt Shaw&Utm_Source=Perplexity
Willi Castro or Matt Shaw
Xavier Edwards or Matt Shaw
Zach Neto or Matt Shaw
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