RADIO
As we hurtle toward the fantasy baseball playoffs, we'll need to focus our attention much more specifically on the players on our rosters. Before we get there we may need some help. So, welcome to the final edition of my Players to Watch for the Week Ahead series for 2024 as we look ahead to the week of August 19 - August 25.
In this article, I like to take a look around the league and pick out some players to discuss who might be under-owned in redraft leagues, potential DFS candidates, or big names that are just flat-out hot, including Michael Toglia, Josh Lowe, and Chris Sale. Before we move on, let's glance back. Daulton Varsho, Michael Harris II, and Jake Burger were some hitters from last week who continued to hit. On the pitching side of things, Spencer Arrighetti and Luis Castillo disappointed, but Bailey Ober kept right on tossing quality starts.
Looking ahead to this week's action, you'll see some familiar names and not-so-familiar names, a two-start pitcher that could push your team to the playoffs, and an old closer in a new place that is the new closer. I've got my eye on these guys, and perhaps you should too.
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Players to Watch: Hitters
What I'm watching: Consecutive games with an extra-base hit
With a double in Sunday's contest, Michael Toglia now has recorded an extra-base hit in five consecutive games. During this stretch, the 26-year-old has gone 6-for-17 (.353) with five doubles and one home run.
Since the All-Star break the former first-round pick is also hitting .268 as compared to .197 before the break, and while the K% is still too high (31.9%), he's increased his walk rate from 7.8% to 14.2% since the AS break.
To the bullpen ‼️ pic.twitter.com/r5ctwxCeos
— Colorado Rockies (@Rockies) August 18, 2024
The left-handed hitting slugger has a .222-20-45-44-6 line on the season with a .337 wOBA and 104 wRC+ and is still available in over 70% of Yahoo leagues.
What I'm watching: Getting on base and stealing bases
If you're looking for steals late in the fantasy season, Josh Lowe was off to the races this past week, stealing a base in six consecutive games before Sunday.
You can't steal bases unless you're getting on base, so of course he was doing a bit of that too, logging a .348 OBP during his six-game stretch and hitting .308 in August with four doubles, a triple, and two home runs.
It has been a season marred by injury, but it seems the former first-round draft pick is heating up. The 26-year-old is still available in over 40% of leagues.
What I'm watching: Speedster needs regular at-bats
Dairon Blanco is known for his top-tier speed, but the last couple of days have been more of a power show. The 31-year-old has homered in consecutive games now after going deep on Sunday, and Saturday included a two-homer outburst where he also tallied seven RBI.
Dairon Blanco is a believer of Crayon Power 😤 #PlayersWeekend pic.twitter.com/CPYXV3kogw
— MLB (@MLB) August 18, 2024
While he hasn't displayed much power for the Royals, this didn't come totally out of nowhere, as he played well and had some big home runs in the Dominican Winter league this past offseason.
For the Royals, he's made an appearance in 69 games this season but just 54 starts, many times coming on as a pinch runner. However, even in his limited action (111 PA) he's been able to tally 21 steals on the year.
That gives him the highest stolen-bases-per-plate-appearance rate by far for players with at least 25 PA (skewed somewhat by the pinch-running steals where he did not log a PA).
The Cuban has 97th-percentile sprint speed, so if this recent power surge can earn him some regular at-bats, then you suddenly have a valuable fantasy asset available on most waiver wires.
Key Matchups: Hitters
These hitters caught my eye when looking over batter vs. pitcher matchups. Most of these guys are already rostered in a majority of leagues, so you aren't running out to snag them off the waiver wire, but they could be targets for your DFS lineups.
While sometimes there isn't enough matchup history worth looking at, there is frequency with these, and with frequency comes familiarity. These pitchers likely don't have any more tricks up their sleeves versus these batters.
Players to Watch: Starting Pitchers
What I'm watching: Two favorable starts this week
Over 69 starts in the minors, Kyle Harrison posted a superb 37.4% K% and 14.56 K/9. That has yet to translate to the majors during his first two seasons though, as he's posted a 22.3% K% and 8.53 K/9 in 28 major league starts. He still shows flashes of the strikeout stuff at times, even fanning 11 Rockies hitters as recently as late July.
The southpaw will get two starts this week, and as luck would have it, both are against sub-par offensive teams. The Mariners and White Sox have the worst team batting averages in all of baseball, and the Mariners strike out more than any other team in the majors.
The Pirates' Bailey Falter just faced the Mariners and struck out eight batters in his start, despite a lowly 6.29 K/9. Falter, too, is a lefty like Harrison, so he's looking good this week. Harrison can be had in half of Yahoo leagues for managers hoping to potentially pick up a couple of wins and a load of strikeouts.
What I'm watching: Consecutive starts with 10+ strikeouts
Chris Sale is having a renaissance with the Braves this season, tied for the most wins in all of baseball and posting a 2.62 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, and an elite 27.9% K-BB%. After his most recent start, Sale has struck out at least 10 batters in three consecutive outings now.
This week, the Nationals have the unfortunate task of facing the lanky lefty. Sale has faced the Nationals once already this season, going seven innings, allowing two earned runs on five hits and one walk while striking out 10.
Chris Sale gets pissed off after throwing a Wild Pitch scoring a run...
And then throws 99 mph for the Strikeout on his next pitch (his fastest pitch of the year). ⛽️ pic.twitter.com/UfafpQieHO
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) August 18, 2024
Tyler Glasnow had two separate streaks this season that were four games long where he struck out nine or more batters, but Sale is the only pitcher with a three-game streak of 10 or more. He'll look to make it four on Friday.
What I'm watching: Can he make it 11 straight quality starts?
At this point, Bailey Ober should have his own sub-section in this article as we've followed his remarkable stretch of 10 straight quality starts nearly every week since it started.
Bailey Ober's MLB ranks since June 16th ♨️
1.76 ERA (2nd)
0.73 WHIP (2nd)
.152 opp. AVG(2nd)
.488 opp. OPS (3rd)@Twins | #MNTwins pic.twitter.com/zwH4ExC8Ck— MLB Network (@MLBNetwork) August 15, 2024
Sure he bested some weaker opponents like the Tigers, White Sox, and Oakland (2x each), but the streak has more recently included the Phillies, Guardians, and Rangers and he's risen to the occasion each time.
Next up? The Padres on the road this coming Tuesday in a notoriously pitcher-friendly park. The Padres have been hot lately, so it should be another good test for the righty.
Corbin Burnes had a 10-game stretch of consecutive quality starts earlier this season, but if Ober were to make 11, he'd stand alone with the longest streak in the majors this season.
Players to Watch: Relief Pitchers
What I'm watching: There's a new closer in town in L.A.
Michael Kopech has been lights out since joining the Dodgers at the trade deadline, posting a 0.00 ERA, allowing just one hit and one walk over six-and-a-third innings pitched through Thursday, August 15.
Michael Kopech, 103MPH ⛽️ pic.twitter.com/BcMU2SajWV
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) August 17, 2024
On the 16th of August, manager Dave Roberts handed the ball to Kopech who notched his first save after pitching a clean ninth to secure the win. It was hard to rule out Daniel Hudson and Evan Phillips for future save opportunities, but it seemed logical that Kopech's continued dominance would earn him another shot in a save situation.
And it did -- Kopech nailed down the victory for the Dodgers on Sunday, pitching another clean ninth (no runs, hits, or walks allowed) and earning his second save. This absolute mastery from your closer is of course what a team wants, so this feels like it is the 28-year-old's job to lose at this point.
The righty is rostered in just 37% of Yahoo leagues, presumably due to his struggles earlier this season, but, as they say, maybe all he needed was a change of scenery (and playing for a legitimate contender probably helps).
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