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Going into week 20 of the fantasy baseball season, Ben Ueberroth analyzes the top five pitchers available on most waiver wires.
As the fantasy baseball season rounds the bend into the final playoff push, pitching options on the waiver wire have dwindled in most leagues. The majority of intriguing prospects have had at least a cup of coffee to prove if they are worth an MLB (and fantasy) roster spot. Historically slow starters have now had ample time to prove if they will come around in the second half.
Despite limited options, savvy managers can still find value on the waiver wire. Some of these slow starters appear to be rounding into form and can be picked up to boost a fantasy squad down the stretch. Others coming back from injury or the minor leagues are putting their best foot forward to contribute in the playoffs and beyond.
Ben Ueberroth (@UeberMD) breaks down the current waiver wire pitcher options for managers in need. Pitchers with sub-50% ownership are highlighted below.
Tarik Skubal - Detroit Tigers
BALLER MOVE: Add in 10+ Team Leagues
ROSTERED IN: 45% of Leagues
ANALYSIS: Skubal has come back like a wrecking ball from his elbow flexor tendon surgery a year ago. While managers need to bear in mind the small sample size, the southpaw holds a 1.38 FIP across 27 innings pitched. Even in his one poor outing, he maintained a 2.52 FIP despite a giving up seven earned runs. Of the thirty or so pitchers considered for this list, Skubal has the highest strikeout numbers with a 31.1 K% and is limiting walks with the lowest BB% at 3.8%. Numbers like that will not stay on the waiver wire for long.
Skubal's increased strikeouts do not seem like a fluke. Compared to 2022, he has added 2 mph to his four-seamer, now topping out at 97mph. He is leading his arsenal with the heater, throwing it 44% of the time in 2023 compared to 27% in 2022. While his wins might be capped by pitching for the Tigers, Skubal's surgically repaired elbow – and the strikeouts that come with it – are here to stay. Add him before someone else does.
Steven Matz - St. Louis Cardinals
BALLER MOVE: Add in 12+ Team Leagues
ROSTERED IN: 45% of Leagues
ANALYSIS: Matz can be viewed as a post-hype sleeper, often identified as a late-round flier on many draft boards. Unlike some other mid to late-career names in the same category (looking at you Sean Manaea and Carlos Carrasco), Matz has rounded into form in the second half of the 2023 season. Matz holds a respectable 3.77 FIP and 21.8 K%, backed by a strong 28.2 CSW%, suggesting he is both spotting the corners and inducing whiffs. Matz has given up just two earned runs across 23 IP in his last four starts. He may not be the flashy name he was as a rookie hurler for the Mets, but Matz will provide more ratio stability than most names left on the waiver wire.
Braxton Garrett - Miami Marlins
BALLER MOVE: Add in 12+ Team Leagues
ROSTERED IN: 45% of Leagues
ANALYSIS: Braxton Miller had a rough July. It is no surprise that his ownership has dropped below 50% considering he gave up 16 ER across four starts to begin July. Despite that rough patch, Garrett still holds a 3.56 FIP, the best of any pitcher on this list, and is in the top three of any sub-50% owned pitcher on the waiver wire.
His most impressive stat is his 31.9 CSW%, behind only Spencer Strider and Shane McClanahan in 2023. He carries risk with a 47.0 HardHit%, but few pitchers on the waiver wire are locating and inducing whiffs at the rate Garrett is, making his strikeout and overall upside tantalizing this late in the season. Those in categories-based leagues should keep Garrett at the top of their streaming radar for an audition and those in points leagues should make an immediate add.
Gavin Williams - Cleveland Guardians
BALLER MOVE: Add in 12+ Team Leagues
ROSTERED IN: 30% of Leagues
ANALYSIS: With seven innings of scoreless ball and an eye-popping 12 strikeouts, Williams impressed this week and flashed the ace pedigree that led to his promotion this year. Williams boasts great strikeout numbers with a 24.3 K%, but perhaps more impressive is his cellar-dwelling 33.3 HardHit%. It is a rare combination to balance strikeout dominance with soft contact, and Williams is walking that tightrope. Williams had his ups and downs as most rookies do, but he seems to be figuring it out and is a steal at his current ownership level. The heat is high and no one is catching up.
Christopher Sanchez - Philadelphia Phillies
BALLER MOVE: Add in 12+ Team Leagues
ROSTERED IN: 30% of Leagues
ANALYSIS: To some degree, the aforementioned pitchers can "hide" on the waiver wire due to pitching for less competitive teams. The Phillies have a lot to play for, holding a relatively small lead on multiple teams for one of the National League wild-card spots. That competitiveness – and hopefully wins – provides a unique angle for Sanchez, boosting his win potential more than other names on this list.
That is not to say that Sanchez is only a streamer worthy of picking up for a quick win. Sanchez holds a modest 23.3 K% coupled with a microscopic 4.4 BB%. His 56.9 GB% is astounding, and all of those numbers put together show a pitcher who can provide a boost to strikeouts while limiting high-risk fly balls and home runs. It is hard to find that type of value backed by a club that is capable of winning every game they play down the stretch. Add Sanchez for those especially chasing wins, and keep an eye on him in all formats for stats across the board as the Phillies make their playoff push.
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