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Fantasy baseball managers always wind up with a couple of pitchers who carried high expectations going into the season, but they were disappointed by the end of the year.
Due to underwhelming seasons, scorned fantasy baseball managers will cast struggling pitchers aside and avoid them in 2025 drafts. As a result, several talented pitchers will see a discount in ADP going into 2025.
Many of these pitchers were drafted with high expectations in 2024 for a reason. Bounce-back campaigns should be for a select few, and they should produce a solid return on investment for managers willing to roster them in 2025. Here are a few arms that fit the bill of what we are looking for.
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Brandon Pfaadt, Arizona Diamondbacks
Following a break-out 2023 Postseason run, expectations were high for second-year starter Brandon Pfaadt. Pfaadt's 4.71 ERA offered immediate disappointment. Though, he was not alone, with that mark hovering around the Diamondbacks' 4.62 team ERA.
It was Arizona's run-prevention woes that dragged a 2023 NL-pennant winning squad out of playoff contention in 2024 despite a league-leading 886 runs scored by Arizona's offense. While his 2023 Postseason run still has him in Arizona's good graces, fantasy baseball managers had to be disappointed by the results they saw at season's end.
However, Pfaadt's metrics were mostly impressive, with a 3.61 FIP, 24.3% strikeout rate, 5.5% walk rate, and 30.1% CSW% through 181 2/3 innings pitched.
The 26-year-old is surely not unassailable, but his 5.93 second-half ERA was caused largely by two blow-out starts late in the season (12 earned runs allowed in 4 1/3 combined innings in two starts against Milwaukee and San Francisco).
While he's still liable for a bad inning now and then, a 106 Location+ grade and strong inning load amid a lack of luck show a mental fortitude that makes his skills bankable in 2025 and beyond.
Brandon Pfaadt, K'ing the Side in the 3rd.
7Ks thru 3. pic.twitter.com/QwEfWTcLyl
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) September 1, 2024
Bailey Ober, Minnesota Twins
3 1/3 bad innings across 178 2/3 innings pitched in 2024 shuttled Bailey Ober to a 3.93 ERA and pushed him down a tier or two this season. But if you erase just 1 1/3 innings from the first start of his season, Ober settles in at an impressive 3.60 ERA.
I do not recommend playing the innings-eraser game with pitchers often. However, it shows how rock-solid Ober was in 2024, and how there's no reason to worry about him going forward.
2024 was another incredible year for the 29-year-old, with a 1.00 WHIP, 26.9% strikeout rate, 6.1% walk rate, 3.56 SIERA, and 15.2% SwStr%. Heading into his fifth season, you should feel confident adding Bailey Ober to your fantasy baseball rotation.
Bailey Ober's 10th K pic.twitter.com/593x12BtGm
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) September 19, 2024
Nick Lodolo, Cincinnati Reds
You can't be happy with a 4.76 ERA and 24.7% strikeout rate from Nick Lodolo in 2024. However, with the number of annoying injuries Lodolo carried in the second half of the season, his 3.33 ERA and 1.12 WHIP in the first half is a more realistic benchmark for 2025.
Had he not been blunted by a blister on his pitching hand in July, Lodolo's price going into 2025 would put him among the better pitchers in the league. Going into 2025, you'll likely find him at a serious discount; you should take advantage of that discount.
Jhoan Duran, Minnesota Twins
The RP1 by most metrics going into the season, Jhoan Duran's 2024 season was a massive disappointment for those expecting a massive step forward. A four-point drop in his strikeout rate, a career-high 3.64 ERA, and Rocco Baldelli's decision to move to a closer-by-committee situation don't inspire confidence, but he remained dominant in 2024.
The 26-year-old's 2.85 FIP, 2.50 SIERA, 35.5% hard-hit rate, 30.7% CSW%, and 132 Stuff+ grade all point to continued success. Fellow top Minny reliever Griffin Jax was also floated as a potential starting option. Duran is the best option in the bullpen of a playoff contender, so we should expect more than 23 saves in 2025.
Jhoan Duran, Mean 3 Pitch K. 😡
98mph Splinker and 2 Hammers. pic.twitter.com/dKEIO78CqU
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) September 27, 2024
Jose Leclerc, Free Agent
A 4.32 ERA and 1.32 WHIP through 66 2/3 innings was not what many expected from Jose Leclerc after his incredible 2023 season with the World Series-winning Texas Rangers (including an unprecedented four saves in that postseason run).
However, a 3.48 FIP, 30.9% strikeout rate, and .314 BABIP are all signs that the 30-year-old has much more left in the tank. While his success will depend on where he lands in free agency, there are plenty of teams in need of late-inning relief arms.
Leclerc has a good shot at finding a bullpen role in 2025 that puts him back in the fantasy baseball conversation.
David Bednar, Pittsburgh Pirates
Coming off a spectacular 2023 season in which he racked up 39 saves with a 2.00 ERA and 28.9% strikeout rate, nobody had David Bednar marked for serious regression. However, Bednar tanked the seasons of many a fantasy baseball manager, with a 5.77 ERA, 1.42 WHIP, and 22.1% strikeout rate through 57 2/3 innings.
Other metrics don't look much better for the 30-year-old, with a 4.80 FIP, 4.23 SIERA, and career-low 13.1% SwStr% rate. His curveball -- his tertiary pitch -- was the crux of his issues, with a 6.2% SwStr% in 2024 on the pitch (compared to a 16.1% SwStr% in 2023).
The good news is most areas didn't see as much of a regression from 2023, with his 128 Stuff+ grade and 23 saves placing him among the better relievers in the league. The stuff is still there, and the closer job in Pittsburgh is still his. Bednar can easily climb back up to elite closer status if he can rehab his curveball.
This 94mph Splitter from David Bednar is Ridiculously Unfair. pic.twitter.com/CtVmaVWA6h
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) March 31, 2024
Edwin Diaz, New York Mets
While you always temper expectations for a pitcher coming back from a full season off the mound, you don't draft Edwin Diaz as high as you did in 2024 and expect a mere 20 saves with a 3.52 ERA in return.
But fret not, the 30-year-old's 44.3% strikeout rate, 1.87 FIP, 0.93 WHIP, and .232 opponent wOBA in the second half of the season means the 30-year-old hasn't lost a step.
Barring anything unforeseen, Edwin Diaz should shoot back to fantasy superstardom in 2025.
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