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January Expert Mock Draft Analysis - Best of the Rest

Here at RotoBaller, 12 of our expert writers recently took part in an early mock draft for the 2018 fantasy baseball season. We've already shared those draft results, including our big board from RT Sports, accompanied by a series of articles analyzing each round. Here's the complete list of recaps, in case you missed it:

Round 1
Rounds 2-4
Rounds 5-9
Rounds 10-15
Rounds 16-23

To finish things up, let's take a look at some of the biggest potential sleepers, busts, and players who did not get selected in our 23-round mock draft, as some may prove to be important waiver wire selections during the course of the season.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and weekly lineup resources:

 

RotoBaller Mock Draft Results

Values

Jose Berrios in round 11 doesn't seem like a steal, but it very well could be. He didn't have the breakout season many envisioned, but he did maintain a sub-4.00 ERA and struck out nearly a batter per inning. He's got a nice mix of pitches and could parlay another year of experience into SP2 value.

Jon Gray in the 14th round and Dinelson Lamet in the 19th round are prime examples of power arms with high strikeout upside that should reward fantasy owners this season. Both had their ratios inflated by a couple of disastrous starts last season, but were solid in the majority of their starts. While Gray pitches in the worst homepark possible, it hasn't bothered him so far (3.13 home ERA vs. 4.06 road ERA). Lamet, on the other hand, must learn to pitch better away from Petco, but definitely has the stuff to do so.

Jonathan Villar was a huge bust in 2017, but he may have been a victim of his own success. Pressing to maintain 2016 power numbers that he had never experienced before, he struck out 30% of the time and dropped from 19 home runs to 11, while falling off a cliff in the speed category, from 62 steals to 23. Villar did have some injury problems during the season and the Brewers are upgrading their lineup all around him, so this is a perfect rebound candidate to buy in the later rounds. Anybody who is almost guaranteed for 25 steals and has multiple position eligibility should be taken in the first 15 rounds at least.

Reaches

There weren't too many reaches in general, but a couple of picks may prove to be costly if this were a money league. David Dahl was a trendy sleeper last season, but it wasn't meant to be. Injuries prevented him from taking a single at-bat for the Rockies last year, which means there is plenty of rust to shake off. Even in his enticing rookie debut, his plate discipline wasn't too impressive. Dahl is not someone worth grabbing in the top 120 picks.

Ozzie Albies should turn out to be a fine player for the Braves, maybe even this year. The question you should be asking is: what will he do in fantasy leagues? Albies should bring a high average and score a fair amount of runs, but that's about it. Considered a speed threat, he stole 30 bases just once in the minors, where those come in far greater abundance with more aggressive managers and inexperienced pitchers. If he replicates last year's .286 average and steals 20 bases with 80 runs scored and forgettable power numbers, he's really no different from Andrelton Simmons or Orlando Arcia, who were both available several rounds later.

I hate to call Miguel Cabrera a reach, simply because he's one of my favorite players and I really want to believe in a bounce-back year. Even if it was a matter of injuries to blame and he's somehow over it, there's no need to grab him in the fifth round like Nick did. Miggy's current ADP sits in the 90s in early expert drafts (he was taken 94th in FSTA), so that bet could have been hedged a little more.

Notable Undrafted Free Agents

Let's look now at the players who did not have the privilege of being selected by our expert staff. The first thing to keep in mind when looking at the list below is that these are the default rankings from the host site, not custom rankings by RotoBaller or its writers. You can find our very own up-to-date rankings right here.

The first thing you might notice is that this would make a mighty fine All-Star team... three years ago. Pujols could very well drive in 100 or more runs again, but his .241 average is no help and his on-base skills are just getting worse with age. His completely lethargic speed and worsening walk rate (5.8% in 2017) contributed to an ever-declining OBP that dropped to .286 last season. If he isn't even close to 30 homers, he's helping you in one category only. Matt Kemp also has a power stroke that remains his only valuable tool. He might beat Pujols in a foot race, but would probably get lapped 10 times over by the Freeze.

Add Victor Martinez and Jose Bautista to the list of aging veterans that will draw little interest on draft day from anyone who isn't a full-fledged homer hoping for a rebound from their childhood idol.

On the younger side, a couple of shortstops stand out as surprise free agents. Top overall pick Dansby Swanson has a lower ADP entering this season than he did as a rookie, thanks to a sad .232/.312/.324 slash line. He did show improvement in his contact rate and plate discipline over the second half, but the power disappeared with it. He may still be a work in progress, but if it suddenly clicks, you could have a gem on the waiver wire.

Addison Russell had troubles on and off the diamond, but remains an important part of the Cubs infield. At just 24 years of age, this former top 10 prospect is too talented to be left in limbo. He too will need to make more advances at the plate in order to improve a .240 career average over three MLB seasons, but there's enough power potential to make him worth a bench stash at least.

Finally, my two pet sleepers from a year ago that didn't pan out, Keon Broxton and Jose Peraza, were not even considered by our drafters. Given the dearth of players who can give you 20+ steals, it's a bit surprising that nobody even took a chance on either one. For my part, I'd rather get ridiculed for a new set of sleepers that didn't pan out than the same ones over and over.

It's safe to say we can ignore those players with an ERA above 5.00 without remorse, even if one is nicknamed "The Dark Knight." Julio Urias and Vince Velasquez are both pitchers that get great movement on their fastballs, but must develop their other pitchers to become less hittable. Each comes with injury concerns entering the preseason as well, which is why they are best ignored in re-draft leagues.

Alex Cobb and Lance Lynn were definitely serviceable as lower-end rotation arms for fantasy teams, but the fact that they don't have homes yet just leaves too much uncertainty. Landing in a place like Milwaukee would make for rougher home starts in either case. Meanwhile, J.A. Happ has been rock solid, if not exciting, for the Jays two years running and is entering the last year of his contract.

It's usually a surprise to see a reliever who could enter the season as his team's closer go completely undrafted, but it would appear that Alex Claudio will be free to own in 2018. When you have a fastball that doesn't touch 90 MPH and about three better arms behind you in the bullpen breathing down your neck, that tends to happen though. Just ask Jeanmar Gomez, if you can find him these days.

 

More 2018 MLB Draft Strategy




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REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Noah Fant8 hours ago

Questionable For Week 12, Update Coming On Saturday
Brock Purdy10 hours ago

Week 13 Status Uncertain
Kyle Finnegan10 hours ago

Nationals Non-Tender Kyle Finnegan On Friday
Dylan Carlson10 hours ago

Rays Non-Tender Dylan Carlson
Brendan Rodgers10 hours ago

Rockies Non-Tender Brendan Rodgers, Cal Quantrill
Mike Yastrzemski11 hours ago

Avoids Arbitration With Giants
Jordan Romano11 hours ago

Blue Jays Non-Tender Closer Jordan Romano
Dustin May11 hours ago

Dodgers Sign Dustin May To One-Year Deal To Avoid Arbitration
Walker Kessler11 hours ago

Might Return To Action Saturday
Kyle Filipowski11 hours ago

To Miss Saturday's Game
Jordan Clarkson11 hours ago

Considered Questionable For Saturday
Miles McBride11 hours ago

Questionable To Face Jazz
Joel Embiid11 hours ago

To Remain Out On Sunday
Nikola Jokic12 hours ago

Returns To Action Friday
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope12 hours ago

No Longer On Injury Report
Wendell Carter Jr.12 hours ago

Considered Questionable For Saturday
Brady Singer12 hours ago

Shipped To Cincinnati
Jonathan India12 hours ago

Traded To Kansas City
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Listed As Out For Saturday
Torrey Craig12 hours ago

Available Versus Hawks
Nick Richards12 hours ago

Ruled Out For Saturday
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Ready To Face Bucks
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Misses A Third Consecutive Game
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Returns To Action Friday
Ja Morant13 hours ago

Considered Doubtful For Saturday
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Ready For Action Friday
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Questionable For Saturday
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Remains Out On Friday
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Will Not Play On Friday
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Available Versus Pelicans
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Absent On Friday
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Added To Week 12 Injury Report
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Could Be An Option For Kraken Next Week
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Alexander Nylander Joins Maple Leafs On One-Year Deal
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Cleared For Week 12
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San Francisco 49ers15 hours ago

Nick Bosa Won't Play Against Packers
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Remains Out On Friday
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Ruled Out For Week 12
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Continues To Sit On Friday
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A Game-Time Call Friday
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Might Return On Friday
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Returns To Practice On Friday
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Cleared To Play In Week 12
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Off The Injury Report, Cleared For Week 12
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Ruled Out With Concussion
DeVonta Smith16 hours ago

Ruled Out For Week 12
Brock Purdy16 hours ago

Not Seen At Friday's Practice
T.J. Hockenson16 hours ago

Expects To Be More Involved In Week 12
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Zamir White Doubtful To Face Broncos
Nico Collins17 hours ago

Set For Increased Workload Against Titans
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Officially Listed As Questionable
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Questionable For Week 12, Intends To Play
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Cleared For Sunday
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Gets Questionable Tag For Week 12
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Lands On Injury Report, Questionable For Week 12
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Ruled Out For Week 12
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Looks To Extend Her Win Streak
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Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
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Looks To Win Back-To-Back Fights
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An Underdog At UFC Macau
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Finishes Thursday's Win With Four Points
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Eyes Another Knockout At UFC Macau
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Expected To Miss 4-7 Days
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Back For Blue Jackets Thursday
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Good To Go Thursday
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Charles Oliveira5 days ago

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