X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Fantasy Baseball League Winners: Unlikely Aces Worth A Roster Spot? (Week 18)

Ryne Nelson - Fantasy Baseball Rankings, Draft Sleepers, Pitchers, MLB Injury News

Tommy Bell's weekly deep dive into three fantasy baseball starting pitchers to decide if their surprisingly good form merits a roster spot or staying on the waiver wire for Week 18 (2024).

Welcome back to another week of Unlikely Aces. We are a week into the unofficial "second half" of the season, but almost every MLB team has reached the 100-game mark, so we're well past halfway in most respects. With the real-life and fantasy trade deadlines looming, it's more important than ever to take advantage of any value that may still exist on waiver wires. So, let's try to do just that!

Each week, I'll take a look at three starters who have found recent success despite lesser outlooks across the fantasy landscape. By diving into some analytics, we can try to predict whether a back-end arm can potentially carry fantasy managers to glory or if the strong performances are more likely a flash in the pan.

Are these unlikely aces for real, or is it safe to leave them out on the waiver wire with negative regression surely coming in bunches quickly? Let's take a deeper look!

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

Luis L. Ortiz, Pittsburgh Pirates

32% Rostered

After an up-and-down 2023 season with the Pirates, Luis Ortiz was relegated to a reliever role to start 2024, and his results were still a bit shaky. However, with his form looking up in June and the Pirates in need of an extra starter due to injuries, the right-hander got another shot as a starter, and to say he's taken advantage thus far would be an understatement.

Ortiz has thrown 24.2 innings in his four starts since the end of June, and he's sporting a matching 0.73 ERA and WHIP while walking just three batters, striking out 19, and not allowing a single home run in that span. He's become an elite addition to an already talented Pittsburgh rotation... But can it stick?

The warning signs for the 25-year-old, if we're looking for them, would be a crazy low .224 BABIP with an unsustainable 88.9% LOB rate in his four starts. Ortiz's strikeout rate is still not elite at 21.3% in that span, but that number sounds better when you consider that his hard-hit rate has dropped all the way down to 20.9% in his four starts.

Ortiz is a ground ball pitcher (43.3% GB rate in his four starts) with awesome movement on his cutter, sinker, and slider. He's young enough to warrant an adjustment this year, and there's something to be said about having veteran Latin players in his clubhouse now with Martin Perez and Aroldis Chapman. I'm willing to ride Ortiz's success until he gives us reason to be concerned again. This is a guy Pittsburgh was VERY excited about last year, and we're finally seeing why.

 

Ryne Nelson, Arizona Diamondbacks

17% Rostered

A youngster in just his second full season as a major league pitcher, Ryne Nelson has been a relatively stable force in the Diamondbacks rotation this year. The 26-year-old has had a few hiccups, including a six-run outing in his final June start against the Twins, but he's in the midst of a strong four-game stretch to start July, and he'll throw once more on Wednesday evening just after I finish drafting this article.

In his four July starts thus far, Nelson is 2-0 with a 2.22 ERA with just four walks and one homer allowed through 24.1 innings pitched. He's also bumped up his strikeout rate a bit in this span, posting an 8.14 K/9 compared to just 6.09 K/9 through the end of June. Is it sustainable?

The 2019 draft pick out of Oregon had an unusually high .346 BABIP leading up to July, so it's great to see some positive regression come his way in the form of a .242 BABIP since then. The steep drop in hard-hit rate, much like Ortiz above, certainly helps that. There's plenty to like for Nelson if this change is legit!

The "change" could be a big jump in fastball usage, as he's up to nearly 64% with his four-seamer compared to just 49.8% in the three months prior. Nelson has thrown fewer cutters and almost eliminated the curveball, so we'll see if that approach remains after the All-Star break.

All-in-all, it doesn't surprise me to see Nelson's recent success tied in with a jump in four-seam usage. That was the pitch that the analytics loved most when he made his debut in 2022. Perhaps he is finally trusting it enough, and maybe the BABIP will level back out, but the jump in strikeouts could remain. Pick up Nelson to see this through if he's still available.

 

Marco Gonzales, Pittsburgh Pirates

3% Rostered

Let's sandwich Nelson with two Pirates. This has quickly become an NL Wild Card article (yes, that's a subtle Pirates brag).

Marco Gonzales is a tougher case to crack, as injuries derailed his season in April. The southpaw started just three games for the Buccos to begin the year before getting shut down with a forearm strain. He finally returned just before the All-Star break and looked great against the White Sox. The veteran then doubled down with a fine showing against the best team in baseball, holding the Phillies to two earned runs through 4.2 innings.

It's likely a bit early to be jumping on the 32-year-old as a trustworthy fantasy option, but avoiding walks and long balls could prove valuable in deeper leagues. Gonzales will need to start getting a few more swings and misses with his changeup, which he's throwing around 40% of the time since his return, but he and the Pirates are clearly fond of that pitch, and his slider/curveball combination, along with it provides some intrigue.

There's nothing overly concerning about Gonzales' underlying numbers, so if you notice the strikeout rate and/or innings pitch start to rise in his next start or two, it might be time to pick up the lefty for the home stretch. He should have plenty left in the tank, and he's the better option than Martin Perez when Jared Jones returns from injury. I could see Gonzales being a decent option in good matchups as we dig deep in August and September.



Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy baseball app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, sleepers, prospects & more. All free!



More Fantasy Baseball Advice




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

AJ Allmendinger

Has Been Strong at Atlanta in the Next Gen Car
Charlie Coyle

Blue Jackets Acquire Charlie Coyle and Miles Wood From Colorado
Justin Haley

is a Sneaky Pick at Atlanta
Jack Quinn

Signs Up for Two More Years with Sabres
Corey Lajoie

Could Surprise at Atlanta
Brandon Saad

Stays in Vegas on One-Year Deal
Trent Frederic

Inks Eight-Year Extension
Josh Naylor

Exits Friday's Contest Early with Neck Stiffness
Emil Heineman

Shipped to the Islanders
Noah Dobson

Traded to Montreal
Cole Custer

an Easy DFS Fade at Atlanta
John Tavares

Agrees to Four-Year Extension with Maple Leafs
David Starr

Ridiculously Off Pace at Atlanta
Sam Bennett

Signs Eight-Year Extension with Panthers
NYI

Islanders Select Matthew Schaefer With No. 1 Pick in NHL Draft
José Berríos

Jose Berrios Tosses Seven Scoreless Innings in Fourth Win
Nick Martinez

Flirts With No-Hitter, Settles for Win
Gary Sánchez

Gary Sanchez Homers, Reaches Five Times in Onslaught
Trea Turner

Blasts Two Homers, Steals Base
MLB

Ron Washington to Remain on Medical Leave for Rest of the Season
Jeremy Peña

Imaging Negative on Jeremy Pena's Ribs on Friday
Spencer Steer

Slugs Three Home Runs in Win
Ace Bailey

to Report to Utah on Saturday
Sonny Gray

Tosses Complete-Game Shutout
Justin Edwards

Sixers Agree on a New Contract
Naz Reid

Agrees to a New Contract with Minnesota
Hunter Goodman

Dealing With Hamstring Soreness
Aaron Rodgers

Roman Wilson Could Fit Nicely With Aaron Rodgers
Josh Simmons

on Schedule to Open the Year as a Starter
Micah Parsons

Contract Length an Issue for Cowboys, Micah Parsons
Denver Broncos

Broncos Unsure How Their Running Back Room Will Look
Russell Wilson

Not the Only Leader in Giants Clubhouse
Eugenio Suárez

Eugenio Suarez Returns Against Marlins
Wyatt Langford

Rangers to Place Wyatt Langford on Injured List
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

Now in Friday's Lineup
Wyatt Langford

Out With Strained Oblique
Luis Robert Jr.

Out on Friday
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

Not in Friday's Lineup
Xander Bogaerts

Back in Lineup on Friday
Griffin Canning

Done for the Year With Ruptured Achilles
Jae'Sean Tate

Rockets Want to Bring Back Jae'Sean Tate
Andre Drummond

Accepts Player Option
Cal Raleigh

Added to Home Run Derby Field
José Ramírez

Jose Ramirez Won't Start on Friday
Jihaad Campbell

to Begin at Inside Linebacker
Josh Conerly Jr.

to Play Right Tackle for Now
Tyleik Williams

Expected to Fill Big Role Right Away
Malaki Starks

Should Make an Immediate Impact
James Pearce Jr.

Impressing the Falcons
Jaxson Dart

has "Excellent" Spring
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

Should Play Vs. BoSox
Donovan Jackson

has Inside Track on Starting Job
Matthew Golden

Appears Set for Significant Role
Derrick Harmon

in Line to Start
Jahdae Barron

Primarily Working at Cornerback
Cleveland Cavaliers

Tyrese Proctor Selected by Cavaliers With the No. 49 Pick
Portland Trail Blazers

Caleb Love Lands with Trail Blazers
Dallas Mavericks

Ryan Nembhard Signs a Two-Way Deal with Mavericks
Orlando Magic

Noah Penda Drafted and Traded to the Magic
Phoenix Suns

Rasheer Fleming Taken With the First Pick of the Second Round
Charles Oliveira

Can Become A Two-Time Lightweight Champion
Ilia Topuria

A Favorite At UFC 317
Kai Kara-France

Can Become The New Flyweight Champion
Josh Giddey

Receives Qualifying Offer from Chicago
Alexandre Pantoja

Set For Fourth Title Defense At UFC 317
Joshua Van

Looks To Extend His Win Streak
Brandon Royval

Looks For His Third Win In A Row
Renato Moicano

Returns At UFC 317
Beneil Dariush

An Underdog At UFC 317
Andre Szmyt

Browns Sign Andre Szmyt to One-Year Deal
Payton Talbott

Looks To Bounce Back
Wilfried Pene

Patriots Waive Wilfried Pene
Felipe Lima

Set To Open Up UFC 317 Main Card
Aaron Rodgers

Lauds DK Metcalf as "Big Reason" Behind Move to Pittsburgh
Emeka Egbuka

to Have Big Role in the Offense
Daniil Tarasov

Panthers Bring in Daniil Tarasov
Grey Zabel

in Line to Start at Left Guard
Frederick Gaudreau

Kraken Pick Up Frederick Gaudreau From Wild
Shemar Stewart

Bengals Still High on Shemar Stewart
SJ

Sharks Buying Out Marc-Edouard Vlasic
Jamie Benn

Stays in Dallas on One-Year Deal
Reilly Smith

Signs New One-Year Deal with Vegas
Michael Kesselring

Traded to Sabres
Josh Doan

Moves to Buffalo
JJ Peterka

Mammoth Acquire JJ Peterka
Evander Kane

Traded to Canucks
Miami Heat

Miami Selects Guard Kasparas Jakucionis
Brooklyn Nets

Brooklyn Takes Nolan Traore in the First Round
Utah Jazz

Walter Clayton Jr. Heading to Utah
Minnesota Timberwolves

Minnesota Drafts Joan Beringer
Portland Trail Blazers

Yang Hansen Drafted by Portland
Oklahoma City Thunder

Thomas Sorber Selected by Thunder
San Antonio Spurs

Carter Bryant Lands in San Antonio
New Orleans Pelicans

New Orleans Acquires No. 13 Overall Pick Derik Queen From Atlanta
Chicago Bulls

Noa Essengue Drafted by Chicago
Memphis Grizzlies

Cedric Coward Drafted by Portland, Traded to Memphis
Michael Thorbjornsen

Returns in Detroit at Rocket Classic
Adam Hadwin

Could Struggle Over the Weekend in Detroit
Cam Davis

Hopes Detroit Magic Can Spark Turnaround
Matt Wallace

a Boom-or-Bust Option at Rocket Classic
Joel Dahmen

Not Cutting it Lately
Michael Kim

Searching for Spark at Rocket Classic
Rasmus Hojgaard

a High-Ceiling Play in Rocket Classic
Matt McCarty

a Wild Card Heading into Detroit
Emiliano Grillo

Rolling into the Summer Season
Rickie Fowler

Looking for More Magic at Rocket Classic
Wyndham Clark

Brings High Upside to Detroit Golf Club
Max Greyserman

Could Make Noise at Rocket Classic
Akshay Bhatia

a Strong Value Play at Rocket Classic
Eric Cole

Hoping for Better Times at Rocket Classic
Beau Hossler

Searching for Form at Rocket Classic
PGA

Byeong Hun An in Good Form Heading into Rocket Classic
Cameron Young

Looking For Redemption and Possible First Career Victory in Detroit
Collin Morikawa

is The Headliner This Week in Detroit For Good Reason
Si Woo Kim

Back in Competition After Last Week's Withdrawal
PGA

Alex Noren Finishes Tied For 30th at Travelers Championship
Kurt Kitayama

Misses The Cut at RBC Canadian Open
Ryan Poehling

Becomes a Duck
Trevor Zegras

Moves to Philadelphia
Andre Burakovsky

Traded to Blackhawks
Ryan Blaney

Drives Through the Field Twice Despite Failing Cool Suit to Finish Third
William Byron

Poor Strategy Ruins William Byron's Strong Run
Kyle Larson

Decent Pocono Run Allows Him to Make Up Some of his Points Deficit
John Hunter Nemechek

Earns Another Sixth-Place Finish in One of His Best Career Races
Jamahal Hill

Gets Dominated At UFC Azerbaijan
Khalil Rountree Jr.

Dominates At UFC Azerbaijan
Rafael Fiziev

Gets Back In The Win Column
Ignacio Bahamondes

Drops Decision At UFC Azerbaijan
Curtis Blaydes

Gets Split-Decision Win at UFC Azerbaijan
Curtis Blaydes

Rizvan Kuniev Unsuccessful In His UFC Debut
Denny Hamlin

Falls Short of Victory At Pocono
Chase Elliott

Continues his 2025 Consistency with A Top-Five Run at Pocono
NASCAR

Bubba Wallace's Difficult Weekend Ends with A Tire Failure at Pocono
Chris Buescher

Finishes Well at Pocono with A Solid Top-Five Finish
Tofiq Musayev

Submitted In His UFC Debut
Myktybek Orolbai

Scores First-Round Submission
Nikolas Motta

Gets Finished After Back-And-Forth Fight
Nazim Sadykhov

Scores Second-Round TKO
Bogdan Grad

Drops Decision
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF