Fantasy Baseball Insider Report: The New York Yankees

8 months ago by Scott Engel

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1. New York Yankees Fantasy Baseball Insider Report

The Fantasy Baseball Insider Series returns to RotoBaller for the 2024 season. Every year during the preseason, Scott Engel chats with prime MLB sources to obtain exclusive insights. Interviewed on the condition of anonymity, current and ex-players, team executives, MLB scouts, members of the media, and others inside the game supply give their unfiltered takes on key players. Scott provides fantasy baseball analysis on the information shared.

The newest edition of the FSWA award-winning Insider Series features the viewpoints of a New York baseball writer who has regularly covered the Yankees for over 35 years. He delivers viewpoints on several New York players that can be pivotal picks for fantasy leaguers this season. Can you trust Aaron Judge and will Anthony Volpe break out? A veteran observer from the press box has the answers.

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New York Yankees Fantasy Baseball Insider Report

Aaron Judge

“Judge mentioned being cautious about his toe for the rest of his career, and there’s a lot of questions about that. They’ve got to watch it and be cautious. I give him credit for mentioning it because you know how baseball is with injuries, how managers like to hold those things back, and how players want to be persistent and stay in the lineup.”

“Big guys in the game will get hurt. He’s in good shape. With Aaron Judge, you never know. The toe is definitely a concern. It’s an injury that’s tough to get back to 100 percent, from what the medical people say.”

“I don’t think he’ll hit 60 homers, although a lot of people say the potential is there now with the lineup behind him. He’s going to be solid as long as that toe stays healthy and he doesn’t get injured somewhere else.”

Aaron Judge says his toe injury is going to require constant maintenance for the rest of his career…🦶

Via @MLBNetworkRadio on @SIRIUSXM pic.twitter.com/g4utcdXXlE

— Xavier Scruggs (@Xavier_Scruggs) February 21, 2024

Insider Angles: Judge has also dealt with abdominal and oblique issues this spring in addition to his right big toe being a possible lingering issue as he admitted to the media in February. He said the toe will require “constant maintenance” throughout the rest of his career. Despite the consistent concerns about his durability, Judge still has an NFBC ADP of 11^th overall and he drew a $40 winning bid in the Tout Wars Mixed salary cap auction.

In 2022, Judge played in 157 games, but ATC projections forecast him to play in 138 games this season with a .277 batting average, 43 home runs, and 106 RBI. That is still an obviously satisfying return for the price tag, but I prefer a top-level player with no frequent injury concerns when spending a first-round pick or even 40 dollars. I would pivot to another top option in upcoming drafts and might consider trading Judge when he surges if you already drafted the Yankees superstar.

Juan Soto

“Yankee Stadium is definitely an additional factor for his home run power. I think Soto is going to have a usual Juan Soto type of season while playing for a big contract. He’s always in the lineup and is one of those few guys that can play a 162-game schedule. If he doesn’t hit a home run, he’s going to go for the extra-base hit or take a walk. In a contract year, he’s going to go all out. He might not hit 40 home runs, though. Hitting 30-plus is certainly a lock again.”

Insider Angles: This source seemed to indicate that I should temper my expectations a bit when asking if Soto could come through with a career year in 2024. At the same time, he was confident that Soto would at least deliver another season of what we saw in 2023 rather than what may have been an off-year in 2022.

Still, I cannot rid myself of the facts that Soto posted the best hard-hit (55.3) and second-best pull (38.9) percentages of his career in 2024. His spring training pull percentage of 44.4 would easily be a new career high, so maybe he is readying to attack the notoriously short right-field porch in the Bronx.

Soto is being drafted one spot ahead of Judge in the NFBC but was drafted for 15 more dollars in Tout Wars. He is projected to hit .280 with 37 homers, 100 RBI, and 105 runs scored, but the Touts have sent the message that there might be a bit more upside for Soto as a Yankee in a contract year. I would personally not hesitate to draft him as early as third overall.

If what he did last season is a possible floor, as this source seems to indicate, you cannot go wrong when drafting Soto very early. The impending free agent has hit over 30 HRs twice and reached 35 once, but the ceiling is higher than ever.

Gleyber Torres

“Their most consistent hitter last year. He can stay consistent. Torres worked out all winter and showed that he wants it again. He’s in the last year of control of his contract.”

“The bounce-back year that Gleyber had last season was because he was more patient and didn’t chase pitches as much. He got on base more, and strikeouts went down a bit.”

“The Yankees always loved Gleyber. The only question was always about him being a guy on the trade market. As of now, there’s no talk of that. But with the Yankees still looking to improve as Hal Steinbrenner has said, Gleyber Torres’ name does circulate around the league with other teams. If that’s not a continued distraction and he picks up from where he left off last year, expect an All-Star year.”

Insider Angles: Also in a contract year, Torres seems to be a safe bet for 20-plus HRs and steals in the teens with the promise of a bit more. At the prime fantasy baseball age of 27, Torres could slightly exceed projections of 24 HRs and 13 SB. He cut the strikeout percentage from 22.6 to 14.6 last season, and the .282 xBA was the highest of his career. He was a bargain in Tout Wars at 19 dollars, and Torres is a solid pick at 80 in NFBC drafts. Do keep potential trade chatter in mind around the deadline, though.

Anthony Volpe

“He learned the league, and the league learned him. If Volpe doesn’t get hurt, because he’s very aggressive, I will be looking for a very solid season. The second year around the league is always a question. But I think he’s been able to understand the game more at this level. He has All-Star potential. A player like Volpe, though, at any time, can get hurt because he is so aggressive out there on the bases. I understand he had an offseason of great conditioning, starting in early January, and for a ballplayer to get started then, that’s a lot of work.”

Insider Angles: In his rookie year, Volpe’s .209 batting average had a .230 xBA behind it, and he has hit .333 with a .378 OBP in 15 spring games. In his minor league career, the 22-year-old had a .263 BA with a .376 OBP. As this source pointed out, Volpe is now in his second run through the league, and he has reportedly worked hard during the offseason to fine-tune the swing. We received quality power and speed stats from Volpe last season and added experience and diligence make him a very alluring upside pick at 128 overall.

Volpe has not yet been marked as a true injury concern, and for where he is being drafted, you should not hesitate to make the pick, as the promise outweighs any possible risk at the draft position.

Giancarlo Stanton

“This is a different Giancarlo, with a different look, slimmer. The new look can cut down on recurring injuries that he has every year, that keep him out of the lineup for extensive time. As compared to last year, you see a very well-structured type of ballplayer. I expect Stanton to be in the lineup a little more. “

“I think a lot of the issues have to do with the physique. I think he’s had a lot of injuries that haven’t healed properly because of the size. A big guy like that, it’s tough to heal. I can’t see Stanton having an average like that again. He’s not a .250 hitter but I don’t see him being below the Mendoza line. That’s just not him.”

The slimmer Stanton discount is still alive and well in @TheReal_NFC OC’s. Going 274 last 2 weeks. Don’t have to squint much to see .240/35/80/70. The price is silly. Easy click. Just my $.02 🤛 https://t.co/4h9VFJKQd7

— The_Gildz (@The_Gildz) February 23, 2024

Insider Angles: Stanton played at 245 pounds last season, yet showed up to spring training this year with a trimmer appearance in an apparent effort to stay on the field. Fantasy players are well aware that the slugger has played in more than 110 games just once in the last five years. He is projected to play in 104 games, with a .227 BA and 26 HRs.

The 2017 NL MVP is the 287^th player off the board in NFBC leagues. At that price, based on the work Stanton did to trim down, you should be willing to take a shot on a more respectable campaign and the possibility of 30 HRs for a later value pick.

Carlos Rodon

“He’s a different type of pitcher coming off his injuries but has developed a nasty cutter. The fastball has been hovering around 95 to 96. Last year it wasn’t there. Those are some good signs. But I don’t think he will have a big bounce-back year. I think he had his run for the Cy Young with the Giants a couple of years ago, and that was his career year.

“I’m not high on Rodon. I don’t think he is the pitcher we saw in San Francisco. It’s a different league and the injuries are going to continue with him. He threw a lot of innings in San Francisco and they are taking the toll on him now.”

Insider Angles: Rodon is another notable Yankees health risk, as several injuries have nagged him throughout his career. The two-time All-Star did flash his best form in the most recent spring outing, working 5.2 hitless innings. It’s hard to tell much from four spring appearances, as Rodon has a 2.93 ERA with a 5.09 xFIP. He is projected to have a 4.08 ERA with a 27.5 K percentage. The ADP of 154 is fair, although this source foresees more struggles, which could move you to pivot to another pick over Rodon if faced with a close call compared to another player.

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