The King's Insider Guide To the 60-Game MLB Season

Since the spring, I have been conducting interviews with many notable and well-informed MLB sources on the 2020 season. On the condition of anonymity, current and former players, scouts, executives, media members and others have shared their unfiltered insights, and I have supplied my in-depth fantasy baseball takes on the information they have shared.

As we approach the condensed 2020 season with much anticipation, it’s a good time to revisit my award-winning Fantasy Baseball Insider Reports series from this year, which started in spring training. Despite the delayed start to the schedule, most of what I have covered to this point remains highly relevant.

In this special roundup edition, I provide key highlights of the series to this point, including recommended draft strategies and top players to target. I then tell you how my conversations with these MLB sources have changed my own draft strategies for this shortened schedule. Links to all previous Insider columns are provided throughout the article so you can further immerse yourself in these exclusive reports. Enter KING at checkout for a discount on the RotoBaller Season Pass, and more Insider Columns are on the way as the 2020 season finally gets closer to becoming a reality.

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Do Not Build Around Streaky and Strikeout-Prone Hitters

One former MLB executive who is a broadcaster and longtime fantasy baseball player strongly suggested to not spend early hitting picks on hitters who have higher strikeout rates and are not contact hitters. Cold streaks will be magnified in a 60-game season and some hitters who are struggling may press more, knowing they don’t have nearly as much time to bust out of a slump. I will be steering clear of Pete Alonso (26.4 K%) and Bryce Harper (26.1). Hitters such as Anthony Rendon (13.3) and Nolan Arenado (14.0) are likely to be my types of cornerstones as they combine low K percentages with high batting averages. More from this source here on slow starters and early cold spells and how they can damage your outlooks.

Who Will Have the Edge Early: Pitchers or Hitters?

I talked with several prominent sources on this subject and received varied responses. One current MLB player told me, “I do not need many swings to be ready to go.” A former MLB pitcher said “I just needed a few bullpen sessions when I was playing and I felt like I was in mid-season form.”

An MLB scout said the hitters should have an early advantage, as they have been able to simulate better during off time, as pitchers can only throw off flat ground and not against live hitting. We came to the conclusion that there will be no absolutes here, and you should not be overly concerned about any trends being altered in a major way. More Insider views on the delayed start to the season that still ring true now here.

Will There be Heightened Concerns on Injuries?

I sought the advice of a longtime and highly respected pro sports athletic trainer on this topic. He did not expect much of anything different in terms of injuries because of how players handle their conditioning. “Players nowadays always keep themselves in good shape leading up to spring training. In years past players would be out of shape and would use spring training to get back into shape," he said.  This source stressed that the second spring training ramp-up period will give players ample time to ready for the resumed season and will really help the pitchers get into proper form. More from the trainer on health concerns in a condensed season here.

Still, there are some injury-prone players I will avoid even if the long layoff has given them extra time to heal. A veteran Yankees beat reporter warned to stay away from Giancarlo Stanton and Aaron Judge because of their workout regimens. “They hit the weights constantly and that affects them. Their bodies can only take so much. Both of them are more susceptible to injuries because of their size. They both have similar physiques and body frames.” More on other notable Yankees here, including commentary on why ace and fantasy SP1 Gerrit Cole may not be quite as dominant as he was in Houston, here. 

Bonus Choices Among the Designated Hitters

The insertion of the DH into National League lineups will give us some fine later options in drafts. Howie Kendrick (ADP of 434) now becomes a very good later target. He hit .344 with 17 home runs last year and led the Majors in xBA at .336. “Kendrick would not project to play five or six days per week and now he can get more playing time,” said the former exec and current broadcaster. The DH type with the most overlooked upside may be Yoenis Cespedes, who is totally off the draft radar at an ADP of .462.

Cespedes looked terrific in spring workouts and the Mets’ original intention was to ease him into action and then let him loose for a big second half. More on Cespedes here and other nifty DH targets are mentioned here.

Per Baseball Savant, Howie Kendrick ranked in the Top 9 percent or better in all of the above Statcast categories last season. 

We Will See Edwin Diaz Regain Respect

A former MLB pitcher who competed in the NL East believes Diaz’s highly disappointing season was due to him losing the handle on his best pitch and absorbing the wrath of the New York fans. “The experience of being booed constantly is something he will have to overcome mentally. If he can get over that hurdle the talents are still there for him to shine,” he said. Diaz has worked with both Jacob deGrom and Pedro Martinez in his efforts to become dominant again,

More details on Diaz’s quest to reclaim his spot among the best closers, and more in-depth takes on key Mets and Marlins here. The former pitcher also provides comprehensive insights on many notable Phillies and Braves here.

Bank on a Benintendi Bounce-Back

More than one source I consulted with strongly believes Andrew Benintendi will rebound from a disappointing 2019 campaign. “Last year he was injured and was engulfed by a malaise that befell the whole team, as the team did not contend and the clubhouse atmosphere was not good,” said a 40-year Major League scout. Benintendi’s xSLG of .461 was 30 points higher than his actual slugging percentage, and his hard-hit rate of 37.7% was a career-high.

You can view more scouting observations on Benintendi here, with other essential insights on additional important players, and get the take from a current MLB veteran on the Boston outfielder here. Benintendi is a very intriguing target at an ADP of 110.

Do Not Hesitate to Grab Dinelson Lamet

The longtime MLB scout we spoke with about several players is high on Lamet for 2019. “His changeup is improving. If he can fully harness it with his slider and fastball he can have quite an arsenal,” he said. Lamet fashioned one of the best strikeout percentages in baseball last year (33.5 K%). He is well worth the ADP pf 122, as the Padres will need him to make a quick impact and prove he is ready to help the team right away in a shortened season. More on Lamet and other players the scout recommends here.

Corey Kluber Will Rise Again

I spoke with a longtime and current MLB veteran who saw Kluber up close earlier this year and was very impressed. He told me he witnessed a lot of Kluber’s past Cy Young form, even though he may not be fully on par with that past version of himself. For an ADP of 98, you could get a very solid shortened season run this year, with an ERA well under 4.00 and a sub-1.20 WHIP. More insights from this player on who else he is expecting to perform well and disappoint, including Hyun-Jin Ryu, here.

David Price Will Perform Well in the N.L.

As I build my starting pitching depth, I will be targeting David Price in his debut season with the Dodgers. One former MLB player I talked to believes the new home park and outfield defense with his new team could lead to some good win totals and a tidy WHIP. “He will play a surprisingly big role for the Dodgers. He is going to be a quality third starter for them,” he said. More NL West observations from this former player, including a breakout performer in Colorado, here.  Also, his views on Ketel Marte and other Diamondbacks and Padres, here. 

2019 Catch Probability Leaders via baseballsavant,com. Dodgers outfielders Mookie Betts and Cody Bellinger are in the Top 20  and are now working behind fly ball pitcher David Price ((36 percent career fly ball rate, 35.5 in 2019)

Adjusted Draft Approach

Since doing these interviews, some of my draft strategies have changed, while others have not. Here’s a quick look at my current mindset.

-I am targeting players in the high batting average cohorts early.

-I want at least two top starting pitchers in the first four rounds, as the best starters should still go deepest into games, and those types now seem even more valuable.

-I am veering away from high-strikeout, power types early, but they become more unavoidable by the double-figure rounds, where you do need that boost if you can get it.

-I have been advised that when teams go deeper into rotations, they may yank their lesser starters early. So I am avoiding fourth and fifth starter types very often, and looking for middle relievers that can potentially snag wins and a few saves, such as Seth Lugo.

-I am less apt to go for rookies such as Luis Robert. Some rookies will be pressed into significant early action, and if they go cold early, there won’t be enough time for them to pick up their play and help me like they would later in a full season.

-I am targeting DH types such as Kendrick and Cespedes as fine final round choices. There aren’t many of them that are overly appealing, so the ones that stand out will get my attention.

-Multi-positional eligibility types become important with pandemic concerns. I want players like Jon Berti and Niko Goodrum later in drafts.

-I want two good, established closers. I cannot wait to chase saves and wait for potential firemen to emerge.

-I know what I will likely get from predictable veterans and will still target them where I would over a full season. Those types of players will form my core. Streaky and less proven players are the ones I will leave on the board in tight decisions. I will still shoot for upside whenever it makes sense. But if I believe a player has a shaky outlook for 2020 I will lean to the safer option.

-I am not altering my draft approaches to worry more than usual about injuries, but minor health concerns will pop up for sure because of the layoff, even though I won't be as concerned for major injuries.

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