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The MLB Hot Stove is scorching hot, and Sunday took the heat to the next level. One of the significant signings was Nelson Cruz signing a one-year deal with the Washington Nationals with an option for 2023. With the universal designated hitter coming into play for the 2022 season, it opened up 15 more teams for Cruz to have a chance to play for and the Nationals answered that call.
Cruz spent his 2021 on two teams and had some mixed results for his two teams, but overall we still got a solid Cruz season. Even as he ages into his 40’s, he hits for power and average, which is a tremendous asset to your fantasy team. Now he heads to Washington to continue crushing at an All-Star level. It also helps that he will be in a lineup with Juan Soto, Josh Bell, and some other table setters.
With the move to Washington, Cruz’s ADP should rise. Over the last couple of weeks, his NFBC OC ADP is 181.60, an insane value for someone of Cruz’s skill set. So let's take a look at why the Nationals signing the 41-year-old Cruz is an excellent thing for their team as well as your fantasy squads. Catch up on all the latest MLB News from our award-winning news desk this offseason!
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A Tale of Two Halves
When looking at Cruz’s 2021 season, most would be OK with the result of a .265 average, 32 home runs, 79 runs, and 86 RBI. Heck, he even stole three bases. However, when looking deeper, it was two different seasons. The monster half of the season where Cruz crushed with the Twins and an up-and-down half with the Rays.
The power and contact quality were excellent when first looking at the two halves.
| PA | HR | Barrels | HH | maxEV | HR/FB | |
| Twins | 346 | 19 | 13.60% | 52.70% | 116.6 mph | 20.90% |
| Rays | 243 | 13 | 13.10% | 50.60% | 117.5 mph | 20% |
The home run totals, barrel rates, hard-hit rates, and more were similar when looking at Cruz’s time in Minnesota and Tampa Bay. What differed was his contact skills, strikeout rates, and more that led to a lower batting average. Many have said the batters’ eye in Tampa Bay is not great, which may have been the problem for Cruz.
| BB | K | Contact | SwStr | |
| Twins | 10.10% | 18.80% | 73.80% | 13.30% |
| Rays | 6.60% | 26.70% | 69.50% | 15.60% |
It is pretty easy to see that Cruz struggled at the plate in Tampa Bay. He walked less, struck out more, and the rest struggled. His batting average dropped from .294 in Minnesota to .226 in Tampa Bay. Cruz was still productive in the power departments, but his overall production and fantasy value did take a hit after the trade.
A New Deal in Washington
Cruz may be getting older, and many are waiting for the production to stop, but that time is not coming in 2022. He has hit at least 30 home runs, scored 70 runs, driven in 86 runs, with a .232 ISO in seven straight full seasons. He now goes to a ballpark in Washington that becomes quite lively in the summer. Here’s his spray chart from last season and how that could play out in 2022.
When looking at the projections, they still like Cruz to be productive. According to ATC, he is projected to hit .261 with 28 home runs, 71 runs, and 82 RBI. That projection has Cruz only playing in 121 games, which is low considering he has played at least 140 games in each full season since 2015. Expect his current ADP of 181.6 to rise, and it should. Some will still be hesitant as he will be UTIL only, but do not let that deter you, as you should expect a solid batting average with 30+ home runs and the counting stats to go with it.
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