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As we head into the month of May, we are starting to get a good sample size for stats. Most MLB teams have played around 30 games each, meaning many of their starting pitchers have already made five starts.
There are some hitters who are putting up crazy numbers right out of the gate, like Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani. Given their proven track records, they should remain stellar fantasy baseball options. However, there are also some hitters who are producing at rates that the likely won’t be able to sustain.
Let’s dive into some Fantasy Frauds through the early part of the season and highlight why they likely won’t be able to continue their current level of success.
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Alec Bohm, Philadelphia Phillies
As far as counting stats go, Bohm had a breakout 2023 campaign with 20 home runs and 97 RBI. Being part of a loaded Phillies lineup helped with his RBI count, and he also chipped in 74 runs scored. He hit a respectable .274, but his .329 wOBA left a lot to be desired.
Bohm has taken his game to another level this season, batting .365 with a .250 ISO heading into Monday. His strikeout rate remains excellent at 16.1 percent and he has used a career-best 11.9 percent walk rate to generate a .455 wOBA. With plenty of traffic on the bases ahead of him, he has also recorded 26 RBI.
Alec Bohm leads the Phillies with 17 extra-base hits this season.
Here’s all 17. pic.twitter.com/jIYXychwwM
— John Foley (@2008Philz) April 29, 2024
Given his performance in April, Bohm is well on his way to surpassing 100 RBI in a season for the first time in his career. However, expect serious regression in terms of his batting average as the season wears on. He has an unsustainable .420 BABIP, which looks even more fluky when you consider that his 41.2 percent hard-hit rate is nearly three percentage points lower than his career mark. If there was ever a time to sell high on Bohm in trade offers, this is it.
Travis d'Arnaud, Atlanta Braves
Despite playing in just 74 games for the Braves last season, d’Arnaud launched 11 home runs. He only batted .225, though, to go along with a .297 wOBA. With Sean Murphy still in the fold, d’Arnaud entered this season ticketed for a limited role again.
Murphy lasted just one game before landing on the injured list with an oblique injury. d’Arnaud has thrived in his absence, batting .292 with a .338 ISO and a .423 wOBA entering Monday. For his career, he has a 7.2 percent barrel rate and a 40.6 percent hard-hit rate. This season, he has a 13.7 percent barrel rate and a 51.0 percent hard-hit rate.
Travis d'Arnaud's last 8 at-bats:
5 home runs, 10 RBI 😲 pic.twitter.com/FcErYUEGqI
— MLB (@MLB) April 23, 2024
As good as d’Arnaud has been, his days as a valuable fantasy option are likely numbered. He has never produced at this rate during his career and Murphy resumed catching bullpen sessions last week. He’s still probably at least a couple of weeks away from making his return, but when he does, d’Arnaud should move into a backup role.
Mark Canha, Detroit Tigers
Canha split last season between the Brewers and Mets. He provides a veteran presence for a Tigers lineup that has plenty of youth in it. He has certainly started off his tenure with the team on the right foot, posting a .913 OPS entering Monday.
Canha has a career .776 OPS, so to say he is off to a hot start would be an understatement. He has already hit five home runs after slugging 11 of them over 139 games last year. He has surpassed 17 home runs in a season just one time in his career, which came back in 2019 when he hit 26 home runs for the Athletics.
There isn’t a lot of optimism for Canha to continue to hit for so much power. He has a 6.9 percent barrel rate and a 41.7 percent hard-hit rate this season. That’s pretty much in line with his career 6.8 percent hard-hit rate and 36.8 percent hard-hit rate. Expect his power production to decline as the season moves along.
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