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Some of the biggest stars in baseball have started off the season on a sour note. The key is not to panic about them when it comes to fantasy baseball.
Look at Aaron Judge, who was batting .197 with a .393 slugging percentage over his first 33 games. Since then, he is hitting .387 with a .903 slugging percentage.
There are also some players who have been at the other extreme, putting up much better numbers than they have at any point during their careers. Let’s dive into some Fantasy Frauds through the early part of the 2024 season and highlight why they likely won’t be able to continue their current level of success.
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Max Kepler, OF - Minnesota Twins
The Twins have been great to begin the season, entering Monday with a 24-16 record. Their lineup has been very productive, posting the eighth-highest OPS in baseball. That has helped them tie for the ninth-most runs scored.
Kepler missed some time early with a knee injury. However, he has been on fire since returning from the injured list. Over 19 games, he is 26-for-63 (.413) with a .698 slugging percentage. He has just a 12.7% strikeout rate, compared to a 9.9% walk rate.
Like a good neighbor, Max Kepler is there #MNTwins | #MLB pic.twitter.com/WHREiORxIT
— Bally Sports North (@BallySportsNOR) May 9, 2024
As hot as Kepler is right now, don’t expect it to last. Over his career, Kepler has a .238 batting average and a .325 wOBA. He has provided decent power, though, with a .199 career ISO. Roster him if you need power, but expect some serious regression when it comes to his batting average.
LaMonte Wade Jr., 1B - San Francisco Giants
Wade appeared in a career-high 135 games for the Giants last season. He showed a good eye at the plate, finishing with a 14.6% walk rate and an 18.3% strikeout rate. It helped him produce a .347 wOBA which was the highest mark of his career.
Wade has taken things to another level this season, batting .340 with a .419 wOBA. His strikeout rate has increased a bit to 23.6%, but his walk rate has also shot up to 20.3%.
So, why the big jump in his batting average? A lot of it can be attributed to his insanely favorable .462 BABIP. His 9.0% barrel rate and 40.3% hard-hit rate are in line with his career marks. He isn’t pulling the ball as much as he has done in seasons past, which might be why he only has two home runs so far. If he is going to sacrifice power for batting average, he could top his career .249 batting average this season. However, his current .340 batting average isn’t going to hold up over the long haul.
Abraham Toro, 2B/3B - Oakland Athletics
Toro has bounced around the majors with the Athletics being his fourth team since the beginning of the 2021 season. He played in a career-high 109 games for the Mariners in 2022, but he didn’t make a case for a regular role with his .563 OPS. His problem has been a lack of quality contact leaving him with a career 31.2% hard-hit rate.
The good news for Toro is that there isn’t a ton of competition for playing time with the Athletics. He has already racked up 148 plate appearances, hitting .299 with a .358 wOBA. He has hit four home runs, giving him a .161 ISO that is in line with his career mark.
Abraham Toro - Oakland Athletics (4)
pic.twitter.com/fWNZqAmfxE— MLB HR Videos (@MLBHRVideos) May 12, 2024
Toro can thank his .346 BABIP for his improved batting average. He’s not hitting the ball any harder, though, posting a 28.8% hard-hit rate. It also won’t help his cause playing his home games in the Athletics’ pitcher-friendly home park. Don’t get too excited about his current production since it’s not likely to last.
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