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We’re more than half the way through May, so we have a decent sample size across baseball. Some players who were off to hot starts have cooled, while others have turned around their slow starts and become productive again.
Still, we have some players with eye-popping stats compared to their career numbers. Are they in the midst of a breakout campaign, or just a heater that won’t last?
Let’s dive into some Fantasy Frauds and highlight why they likely won’t be able to continue their current level of success.
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Joc Pederson, OF - Arizona Diamondbacks
The Diamondbacks signed Pederson during the offseason to provide left-handed power for their lineup. While he had a bit of a down season in 2023, he still hit 15 home runs over 121 games. He also generally does a good job of getting on base, posting an 11.5% walk rate and a .345 wOBA for his career.
Pederson has brought plenty of power to the plate this season, hitting five home runs on his way to a .240 ISO. However, he enters Monday with a .317 batting average. For his career, he has a .239 batting average.
Joc Pederson's 5th dinger of the season ties the ballgame. 💥 pic.twitter.com/1D7Ep0VW3n
— MLB (@MLB) May 14, 2024
Most of Pederson’s supporting stats, such as his strikeout rate and barrel rate, are in line with his career marks. The biggest difference has been his .394 BABIP. For his career, he has a .272 BABIP. While he’s a threat to hit 20 home runs, expect some serious regression when it comes to his batting average as the season moves along.
Jake Meyers, OF - Houston Astros
It has been a disappointing start to the season for the Astros, who entered Monday with a 21-26 record. Their lineup has struggled on the road, contributing to their 8-13 record away from Houston. They have a couple of underperforming hitters in their lineup, but Meyers isn’t one of them.
Meyers entered Monday batting .302 with a .250 ISO and a .399 wOBA. He had 10 home runs across 112 games last season, but he has already gone deep five times this year. He has shown incredible progress, given that he hit .227 with a .297 wOBA last year.
There are some stats working in Meyers’ favor. His strikeout rate is down to 19.6%, compared to his career mark of 27.6%. After posting a 6.3% barrel rate and a 27.9% hard-hit rate last season, he has a 9.2% barrel rate and a 44.7% hard-hit rate this season.
As encouraging as those numbers are, asking Meyers to hit over .300 for the entire season is a lot. For his career, he is a .244 hitter with a .306 OBP. Pick him up off waivers if you need help in the short term, but be ready to cut bait quickly when he starts to cool off.
Kevin Pillar, OF - Los Angeles Angels
Pillar began the season with the White Sox, but was designated for assignment. He latched on with the Angels, who were in need of outfield help with Mike Trout (knee) going down. Known more for his glove than his bat, Pillar has now played for nine teams since the start of the 2019 season.
To say that Pillar has started off his career with the Angels on a high note would be an understatement. Over 12 games entering Monday, he is 17-for-38 (.447) with three home runs and four stolen bases. He also has a staggering 16 RBI and 10 runs scored.
Kevin Pillar drives in 2 🚨@Angels | #RepTheHalo pic.twitter.com/K97FW7gPhh
— Bally Sports West (@BallySportWest) May 19, 2024
Pillar is a fun story right now for a team that doesn’t have a lot going for them. However, he has produced a .386 BABIP this season despite having just a 28.6% hard-hit rate. For his career, he has a .153 ISO and a .303 wOBA. Serious regression is coming and it should be here sooner rather than later.
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