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Fantasy Baseball First Base ADP Report - Draft Targets and Avoids (2025)

Michael Toglia - Fantasy Baseball Rankings, Draft Sleepers, Waiver Wire Pickups

Tim's 2025 fantasy baseball first base (1B) draft sleepers, targets, avoids based on ADPs. His favorite first base fantasy baseball sleepers to draft in 2025.

The first baseman class for the 2025 fantasy baseball season has usual suspects like World Series MVP Freddie Freeman in the top tier, with varying degrees of helpful players in different categories outside of the top four names.

Investing heavily in first basemen has become less frequent in both fantasy and reality baseball. Those addressing the position on draft day with one of the four studs (some would say five -- more on that later) should have a plan afterward to make up for stolen bases. An increasingly logical strategy says to buy first base in the middle and late rounds while loading up on swipes at other positions.

What do early drafting trends say about first basemen in 2025 fantasy baseball? I've compiled this fantasy baseball average draft position (ADP) data from 20 NFBC Draft Champion drafts. You'll find the ADP tables below, along with my analysis of the ADP at the position, player values I like/dislike, etc. Reminder: This report doesn't reflect my personal rankings but instead breaks down how the early draft market values these first basemen for 2025 fantasy baseball leagues.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

First Base Fantasy Baseball ADP Analysis

Rank Player Team Pos ADP / AAV Min Max
1 Vladimir Guerrero Jr. TOR 1B 14.97 9 20
2 Bryce Harper PHI 1B 20.72 16 26
3 Freddie Freeman LAD 1B 24.06 19 36
4 Matt Olson ATL 1B 34.58 26 50
5 Pete Alonso NYM 1B 48.39 32 67
6 Salvador Perez KC C, 1B 76.11 63 97
7 Josh Naylor ARZ 1B 92.56 58 133
8 Christian Walker HOU 1B 106.75 81 124
9 Triston Casas BOS 1B 109.56 78 130
10 Vinnie Pasquantino KC 1B 111.06 89 135
11 Spencer Steer CIN 1B, OF 112.03 71 131
12 Cody Bellinger NYY 1B, OF 120.97 97 151
13 Jake Burger TEX 1B, 3B 121.61 88 149
14 Luis Arraez SD 1B, 2B 188.64 146 238
15 Michael Toglia COL 1B 192.28 128 226
16 Paul Goldschmidt NYY 1B 200.97 167 301
17 Yandy Diaz TB 1B 215.22 175 257
18 Christian Encarnacion-Strand CIN 1B 224.03 179 300
19 Michael Busch CHC 1B 248 188 296
20 Nathaniel Lowe WAS 1B 251.44 205 311
21 Ryan Mountcastle BAL 1B 265.33 200 369
22 Jake Cronenworth SD 1B, 2B 284.72 236 331
23 Andrew Vaughn CWS 1B 287.06 243 327
24 Rhys Hoskins MLW 1B 291.58 224 359
25 Jeimer Candelario CIN 1B, 3B 298.61 272 338
26 Tyler Soderstrom ATH 1B 308.53 263 381
27 Nolan Schanuel LAA 1B 309.03 272 350
28 Luke Raley SEA 1B, OF 313.89 282 448
29 Spencer Torkelson DET 1B 317.22 251 372
30 Spencer Horwitz PIT 1B, 2B 324.78 261 381
31 Jonathan Aranda TB 1B 332.14 267 526
32 Ryan O'Hearn BAL 1B, OF 349.83 310 401
33 Josh Bell ARZ 1B 379.72 298 431
34 Carlos Santana CLE 1B 405.08 351 570
35 Jonah Bride MIA 1B 426.67 377 512
36 David Fry CLE C, 1B, OF 429.92 307 535
37 Deyvison De Los Santos MIA 1B 434.5 363 498
38 Seth Brown ATH 1B, OF 448.75 377 574
39 Juan Yepez WAS 1B 454.03 339 536
40 LaMonte Wade Jr. SF 1B 473.33 399 555
41 Ben Rice NYY 1B 489.28 365 594
42 Mauricio Dubon HOU 1B, 2B, OF 547.94 454 734
43 Ty France CIN 1B 552.08 426 654
44 Nick Kurtz ATH 1B 556.58 383 721
45 Anthony Rizzo NYY 1B 565.25 440 744
46 Justin Turner SEA 1B 572.69 436 716
47 Romy Gonzalez BOS 1B, 2B, SS 577.75 478 742
48 Zach Dezenzo HOU 1B 582.33 420 738
49 Bryce Eldridge SF 1B 583 355 677
50 Gavin Sheets CWS 1B, OF 670.39 473 750
51 Mark Canha SF 1B, OF 675.69 516 743
52 Rowdy Tellez PIT 1B 698.92 507 739
53 Jon Singleton HOU 1B 702.25 477 736
54 Tyler Locklear SEA 1B 707.72 461 744
55 Donovan Solano SD 1B, 3B 716.78 568 746
56 DJ LeMahieu NYY 1B, 3B 718.78 550 748
57 Connor Joe PIT 1B, OF 719.56 513 745
58 Jac Caglianone KC 1B 720.94 457 742
59 Wilmer Flores SF 1B 724.5 595 740
60 Ryan Noda LAA 1B 736.67 546 727
61 Emmanuel Rivera BAL 1B, 3B 738.39 603 730
62 Jake Bauers MLW 1B 739.33 580 744
63 Grant Lavigne COL 1B 744.42 514 514
64 Tre' Morgan TB 1B 744.86 692 703
65 Troy Johnston MIA 1B 745.69 598 713
66 Blaine Crim TEX 1B 746.39 684 733
67 Yuli Gurriel KC 1B 746.53 590 590
68 Austin Shenton SEA 1B 748.92 713 743
69 David Villar SF 1B 749.03 680 680
70 Patrick Wisdom CHC 1B 749.17 702 734
71 Elehuris Montero COL 1B 749.25 688 688
72 Garrett Cooper BOS 1B 749.56 699 699
73 Jose Abreu HOU 1B 749.92 712 712
74 Joey Meneses WAS 1B 750.17 721 721
75 Owen Miller MLW 1B 750.92 748 748

 

First Basemen I Plan To Draft Most Frequently

1. Michael Toglia - Colorado Rockies
2. Ryan Mountcastle - Baltimore Orioles
3. Jake Burger - Texas Rangers
4. Vinnie Pasquantino - Kansas City Royals
5. Cody Bellinger - New York Yankees
6. Paul Goldschmidt - New York Yankees
7. Christian Encarnacion-Strand - Cincinnati Reds
8. Spencer Horwitz - Pittsburgh Pirates
9. Luke Raley - Seattle Mariners
10. Deyvison De Los Santos - Miami Marlins

I typically aim to lean on the cheaper side at first base while focusing on stolen-base wizards in the early rounds, but I'll start by writing about a quiet, emerging power star.

Toglia's home environment wasn't all that helped his 2024 breakthrough: He finished 15th in barrels per plate appearance (9.6%) and knocked down the 30-homer door this year:

I hope his near-200 ADP sticks for the rest of the preseason.

Mountcastle and Burger represent the exact type of middle-to-late-round power sources I am looking for.

In Sleeper Fantasy Bats Who'll Rebound In 2025, I wrote about how Camden Yards' latest revisions of their outfield fences could help Mountcastle rekindle his pop.

Burger's batted-ball data ranks among the elite, and the move from Marlins Park (92 Statcast HR Park Factor) to Globe Life Field (115) should put him square in the 30-homer category.

Yes, I will keep chasing the Pasquantino power breakout if you're going to let me snag him in the middle rounds of mixed drafts. Some fixes to the 27-year-old's bat speed and swing path could unlock 30-plus homers annually.

I'm happy to scoop up either Bellinger (preference due to dual-position eligibility) or Goldschmidt. (Don't ignore Goldy's nine HR in 62 games to end 2024.) Also, buy back in on CES after his injury-shortened 2024; track his recovery from right wrist surgery. Jonathan India's trade should help cement his at-bats with the big club.

Horwitz could wind up a sneaky depth helper in OBP leagues, with the bonus of multipositional eligibility. Even in a mere top-side platoon role, Raley's multipositional eligibility could install stealth stolen-base upside at a position that doesn't typically offer it.

Having launched 26 homers across 421 plate appearances in two Triple-A stops, De Los Santos could occupy a middle-of-the-order spot in a (perpetually) up-and-coming Marlins lineup.

 

First Base ADPs I Don't Love

1. Christian Walker - Houston Astros
2. Pete Alonso - Free Agent
3. Josh Naylor - Arizona Diamondbacks

I'm not going to fault anyone for aggressively grabbing one of the top names, and I might add Alonso to that list for certain as a stud, depending on where he lands. However, I can easily see his cost spiking if he signs with a team boasting a hitter-friendly park, stellar lineup, or both. I prefer not to pay up for someone who we pray hits .250; you can get power guys like that later.

When a position group carries a big gap between the upper tiers and the middle section, I don't want to grab a name first from the middle section. I'm not keen on buying Walker aggressively during his age-34 season.

In the eyes of many drafters looking to wait on a first baseman, Naylor's landing in a positive lineup and park with the Diamondbacks could shield his risk spots (batting average, inflated 18.6% HR/FB when his fly-ball rate didn't change much). Though many of his gains could stick, the gap between Naylor and other bargain names I've mentioned is not as wide as this ADP data suggests.



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