First Basemen to Target or Avoid at ADP - Fantasy Baseball Draft Analysis

When I was growing up and really getting into baseball in the 1990s and 2000s, the first base position was chalked full of big-time sluggers that would be counted on to produce gaudy offensive numbers season after season -- especially in the HR and RBI departments. Let's look at 2006 for example. Why? Well, it was the year my home keeper baseball league began, which is still running today.

You can see how many qualified first basemen met each stat threshold in 2006:

30 Home Runs (11) | 80 Runs (17) | 80 RBI (16) | .280 AVG (15) | .360 OBP (18) | .500 SLG (14), .370 wOBA (12)

Now, let's fast forward to 2022 and look at the same metrics:

30 Home Runs (8) | 80 Runs (9) | 80 RBI (10) | .280 AVG (5) | .360 OBP (5) | .500 SLG (3) | .370 wOBA (2)

Yes, that's quite the drop-off in first base production. The purpose of this little exercise wasn't just a comparison to sluggers of 16 years ago, but more to show that this position isn't quite what it used to be. However, with that said, this position does appear to be deeper than it has been over the last few years, as we've seen some resurgences from veterans and have had several new pups begin to mark their territory in our fantasy world.

First Base Draft Strategy

You might be tempted to go after one of Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Freddie Freeman, Pete Alonso, or Paul Goldschmidt early in your draft. In general, I'm not opposed to taking any of them at the appropriate price.

But at the same time, getting those precious power/speed blends are so valuable early on in your drafts. And with the overall depth at the 1B position compared to others like the hot corner or outfield (trust me, the middle rounds get scary), I'm more inclined to target those positions in the first few rounds while also securing an ace as well.

For that reason, I've found myself waiting until the pick 90-170 range to grab a 1B in nearly every draft I've partaken in thus far. There are plenty of solid targets in this range that I'd be fine with having as my starting option. But again, if someone like Freeman or Alonso falls well past their ADP, I'm not out on any of those guys. Well, except for one name, but he won't fall in drafts (see below).

First Basemen to Target at ADP

Vinnie Pasquantino, Kansas City Royals

If you know me, this was going to be a no-brainer inclusion in this article. No matter what level he's been at, all Vinnie Pasquantino has done is rake, mash, and punish innocent opposing pitchers. All while garnering cool nicknames like "Italian Breakfast" and "Italian Nightmare." He's been a nightmare for opposing pitchers to deal with and I'm not expecting that to change anytime soon.

An 11th-round selection back in the 2019 draft, Pasquantino slashed .292/.382/.569 in 246 minor league games along with 71 doubles, 56 home runs, and nearly as many walks (131) as strikeouts (143). Pasquantino's ability to hit for average and power along with a phenomenal approach at the plate had him skyrocketing up prospect rankings ahead of his 2022 Major League debut. And let's just say that he didn't disappoint in his first taste of the Majors either.

After an 0/4 performance on August 3, Pasquantino's slash line sat at an uninspiring .214/.308/.325. How dare he take time to adjust to the Majors! However, from August 4 through the end of the season, Pasquantino flipped the proverbial switch and finished with a .362/.442/.553 slash line over his final 165 plate appearances with six doubles, seven home runs, and an elite 21/12 BB/K ratio.

Overall, Pasqantino ended with a .293/.383/.450 line along with some exciting metrics that have me highly encouraged for a breakout 2023 campaign. Pasquantino immediately established himself as one of the best pure hitters in baseball, sporting an impressive 90.4% zone contact rate, 85.5% contact rate, 15.3% whiff rate, and 6.6% SwStr rate. On top of that, Vinnie P. displayed plenty of power as well with a 46.9% hard-hit rate and 91.2 mph AVG EV. Oh yeah, did I mention that he had more walks (11.7%) than strikeouts (11.4%) last season? All of this as a rookie!

With an ADP just inside the top 100 overall, I'm going to be gobbling up shares of Pasquantino quicker than a dog left unattended with a table full of food. That .280+/25+ upside with solid counting stats is golden at that point of your draft.

Rowdy Tellez, Milwaukee Brewers

In a way, the 2022 season was Rowdy Tellez's coming-out party. The stout first baseman cranked a career-best 35 home runs along with 89 RBI, 67 runs scored, and 62 walks. All three of those were career-best marks as well. However, Tellez also posted a lowly .219 AVG and .306 OBP, which really put a damper on his overall value. Don't worry though, Tellez's profile hints at even better outcomes in 2023.

When you look at Tellez's profile without knowing what his AVG was, you'd likely guess that he hit between .250 and .260. You and me both. The profile here certainly isn't indicative of a player that was within 20 points of the Mendoza Line. To start, Tellez posted an impressive 10.4% walk rate and 20.2% strikeout rate, finishing as one of 55 hitters to have a K-BB rate under 10% across more than 500 plate appearances. And when you add in a threshold of also posting an ISO above .240, the list shrinks to Aaron Judge, Yordan Alvarez, Paul Goldschmidt, Nolan Arenado, Mookie Betts, Pete Alonso, Anthony Rizzo, and Tellez. A pretty impressive list to be on.

But wait, there's more! Bonus points if you read that in a Billy Mays voice. When digging further into Tellez's plate discipline metrics, you'll find an 83.3% zone contact rate, 78.3% contact rate, 23.8% whiff rate, and 9.3% SwStr rate. All of which were around or better than the league average. So how in the name of Milwaukee sausage races did he hit only .219 last season? Well, a .215 BABIP had something to do with it. Damn you BABIP! It wasn't even a shift thing either as Tellez's wOBA against the shift and against no shift were only 20 points apart.

With some natural positive BABIP regression, Tellez's average should creep back up into the .250 range, which paired with similar power and run production as 2022, would make Tellez a top 10 caliber first baseman this season. I'll take that all day from a guy being drafted as the 1B17 on average.

Anthony Rizzo, New York Yankees

Hey look, another member from that impressive list from above. I'll admit, I wasn't exactly keen on taking Anthony Rizzo in 2023 drafts way back when 2023 drafts kicked off back in October (yes, we crazies were drafting in October). But after Rizzo returned to the Yankees on a two-year deal in November and I looked into the profile a bit more, I came away impressed and wanting some Rizzo shares this draft season.

The 2022 season was Rizzo's first full season in pinstripes, and he didn't disappoint. In 548 plate appearances, Rizzo smashed 32 home runs with 75 RBI, 77 runs scored, and even added six steals for the second season in a row. Sure, his AVG was lacking a bit at .224, but Rizzo managed to keep his OBP respectable at .338 thanks to a 10.6% walk rate. Rizzo also recorded the highest barrel rate of his career at 10.9%.

If Rizzo was in nearly any other park, I'd probably be looking elsewhere in his ADP range during drafts this season. However, Rizzo's left-handed power and batted ball profile fit Yankee Stadium incredibly well. In 2022, Rizzo pulled the ball 45.9% of the time with 56.6% of his batted balls being fly balls or line drives. And as I mentioned with Tellez above, Rizzo's plate discipline metrics should allow the AVG to rebound in 2022, assuming he doesn't run a .216 BABIP again. Rizzo is a great target after the big-name first basemen are off the board.

Other Good ADP Value Targets: Ryan Mountcastle, Andrew Vaughn, Jose Miranda, Ty France

First Basemen to Avoid at ADP

Matt Olson, Atlanta Braves

It always feels like I need to add a disclaimer when listing players like Matt Olson as an ADP avoid. This is not me saying I dislike him altogether; in fact, I'd be more than happy to roster him this season if his ADP was 2-3 rounds lower than what it currently is. But I just can't get on board with selecting him as a top 50 pick this season, especially given all the solid targets 50-80 picks later.

In 2021, Olson put together a career year for the Oakland Athletics, slashing .271/.371/.540 with 39 home runs, 111 RBI, and 101 runs scored. All three of those marks along with AVG and OBP serve as career-best marks for Olson. But it doesn't stop there. Olson also recorded career-best marks in K% (16.8%), Zone Contact (81.6%), Whiff% (23%), Contact% (78.6%), and SwStr% (9.9%).

As you might expect, that performance vaulted Olson way up draft boards in 2022, even into the top 25 in some drafts I was in. But unfortunately, all of those career-best metrics I mentioned above regressed back nearer to his normal career levels and Olson wasn't able to return a positive ROI in 2022. Overall, the line was still solid with 34 home runs, 103 RBI, and 86 runs scored with a .240/.325/.477 slash line. But I'm sure those that rostered him were expecting more after his massive 2021 season. And surprisingly, his ADP hasn't fallen that much here in 2022.

For me, again, it's all about the price and options later in the draft. If I'm going to be taking a zero-SB bat within the first 50 picks, they better stand out in the other four categories. Olson can provide solidly in HR, RBI, and R, but his AVG tends to fluctuate wildly from week to week, month to month, and season to season. Take 2022 for example. Olson hit only .219 with a .303 OBP in the second half, including a 93 plate appearance stretch from August 28 to September 23 where he recorded only eight hits.

I'll pass on his top 50 price tag and attack this position several rounds later in my drafts.

DJ LeMahieu, New York Yankees

When it comes to DJ LeMahieu in 2023, I'm questioning how many plate appearances he receives. In 2022, LeMahieu made 43 starts at third base, 35 at second base, 31 at first base, and seven at DH, finishing with 541 plate appearances. This was his lowest mark since he had 538 way back in 2014 with the Colorado Rockies.

As it stands now, the Yankees have Anthony Rizzo at first base, Gleyber Torres at second base, and Josh Donaldson at the hot corner. Now, you're probably asking yourself why DeLamhieu couldn't receive the same number of plate appearances in 2023. The short answer is that he absolutely could. But even 541 plate appearances of DJLM only resulted in a mediocre .261/.357/.377 slash line with 12 home runs, 46 RBI, and a finish outside the top 200 on the Razzball Player Rater.

LeMahieu doesn't run much, hits too many groundballs, and the power from 2019/2020 doesn't appear to be walking back through that door. In fact, LeMahieu has seen his AVG EV and hard-hit rate drop in each of the last three seasons.

If you're looking for a first baseman after pick 200, I'd much rather go to someone like Seth Brown, Triston Casas, or Spencer Torkelson, all three of which have clearer paths to playing time and more upside at this stage of your draft.

Other ADPs I'm Avoiding: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (he shouldn't be going in the top 10), Matt Mervis (I like the talent, but PT is cloudy now), Joey Meneses (not fully buying 2022 performance).

Thanks for reading RotoBallers! Coming up next, I'll be checking diving into the second base position so stay tuned.

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