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First base is typically one of fantasy baseball’s deepest positions, particularly when it comes to finding power. This makes it a great position to find relative value throughout drafts. Of course, it also provides more opportunities to draft players who won’t provide the value fantasy managers were hoping for.
I will highlight three first basemen whose 2021 metrics suggest that they could underperform expectations based on their current ADP. To be clear, these players shouldn’t necessarily be avoided altogether in drafts this season, but they should be avoided at their current draft position.
Coming into your drafts with a solid game plan is key to starting the fantasy season off on the right foot. To that end, the first basemen I think are likely to bust this season are DJ LeMahieu, Jared Walsh, and Nathaniel Lowe. Let’s take a look at why.
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DJ LeMahieu, New York Yankees
Current ADP: 112
I have not been able to buy into DJ LeMahieu since he joined the New York Yankees, and this has hurt me the past several seasons. However, 2021 finally seemed to expose the 33-year-old, as he posted a lackluster .268/.349/.362 slash line with 10 home runs, 57 RBI, and four stolen bases. Fantasy managers have taken notice to some degree, as his current ADP of 112 is lower than it has been. However, he is still the highest-ranked first baseman in this article, and I think he is still being drafted too high. Let me dive into the numbers to back this up.
The main sticking point for me is that LeMahieu’s batted-ball profile has never suggested that power numbers would follow. He did hit the ball relatively hard last season and has throughout his career; his 2021 average exit velocity and hard-hit rate were in the 74th and 68th percentiles of baseball, respectively. However, he has never hit the ball in the air, and his five-degree launch angle in 2021 stayed true to that pattern. Consequently, LeMahieu posted a mere .362 slugging percentage.
Overall, I think LeMahieu’s fantasy value is capped given his hitting approach. He will hit in a strong Yankees lineup which will help his runs and does have multi-position eligibility, but he doesn’t profile to hit for power and hasn’t been a significant contributor in stolen bases for years. There are currently plenty of power-hitting first basemen who won’t kill fantasy managers in batting average who are going much later than LeMahieu. All signs point to him being a bust in 2022.
Jared Walsh, Los Angeles Angels
Current ADP: 116
This next player likely helped lead fantasy managers to titles in 2021. Jared Walsh came into the 2021 season with a 217 ADP and proceeded to slash .277/.340/.509 with 29 HR, 70 runs scored, and 98 RBI. His performance is being rewarded by fantasy managers, as his current ADP is all the way up to 116, and he is the ninth first baseman off the board behind LeMahieu. I feel that this is too much trust in Walsh to repeat what he did in 2021, and here’s why.
I think Walsh’s 2021 production exceeded his batted-ball profile. He did barrel up the baseball well; his 11/3% barrel rate was in the 75th percentile of baseball. However, he managed his 29 HR and .509 slugging percentage with a just above-average exit velocity and hard-hit rate, coupled with a 7.8-degree launch angle. He also managed both a 25.4% HR/FB rate, a mark that put him 14th-highest among qualified hitters, and a .335 BABIP. To me, it seems like Walsh squeezed out an elite HR/FB rate and a very high BABIP with a mediocre batted-ball profile and only league-average speed. As such, I wouldn’t expect him to be able to repeat the level of success he found in 2021.
Like LeMahieu, I don’t think that Walsh’s overall batted-ball profile will support what fantasy managers are expecting at his current ADP. Unlike LeMahieu, Walsh won’t have as strong of a lineup around him as a support system. He should hit in the middle of the Angels’ lineup with Shohei Ohtani, Mike Trout (if he stays healthy), and Anthony Rendon (who hopefully will bounce back). However, the rest of the team’s projected lineup leaves much to be desired. Again, there are plenty of first basemen who will hit for power and some average, and I don’t think fantasy managers will need to pay up for Walsh.
Nathaniel Lowe, Texas Rangers
Current ADP: 241
Now I know what you might be thinking; how can a guy with an ADP of 241 be considered a bust candidate? Well, every pick can return or lose value, and later-round picks can yield the highest upside, so no pick should be considered a throwaway. Nathaniel Lowe had a surprisingly successful 2021 season, slashing .264/.357/.415 with 18 HR, 75 runs scored, 72 RBI, and eight stolen bases. He is being drafted as the 26th first baseman off the board right now, and while it is possible that may end up being a nice value, I find it to still be relatively too high.
The issues I see in Lowe are similar to that of LeMahieu and Walsh. He did hit the ball hard (average exit velocity and hard-hit rate were in the 77th and 74th percentiles in baseball, respectively), but he managed to hit 18 HR on just a 16.5% HR/FB rate and a five-degree launch angle. He is just 26-years-old, but his 6.7-degree career launch angle does not inspire confidence. Further, his 25.2% strikeout rate was too high and was actually lower than his 27.1% career mark. His .339 BABIP may be due to how hard he hit the ball, but all of his expected stats were below average. Finally, Lowe had never stolen more than one base in a season prior to 2021, so it does not seem like a category he will reliably pitch in on in 2022.
The caveat with Lowe is that he is young, so he does have time to potentially improve his launch angle and plate discipline. However, I feel that his current ADP is still too high, given that players like Spencer Torkelson, Miguel Sano, and Luke Voit are going 20 to 30 picks after him. The high pedigree of Torkelson and the power upside of Sano and Voit are more appealing to me that much later in the draft than what Lowe profiles as heading into the 2022 season.
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