How To Win The First Three Rounds - Fantasy Baseball Draft Strategies and Players To Target

We are in the best time of the year for fantasy baseball players; yes, it is draft season. Some sites allow us now to draft year-round, but many of us wait until March to delve into those first drafts. And that time is here.

In the first three rounds of your draft, you are looking to load up on those counting stats. Simply put, the goal in a standard 5x5 league is to accumulate players who will help you in at least four of the five categories: batting average (or OBP in some leagues), home runs, runs batted in, runs scored, and stolen bases. This year, there is some intrigue as debate rages between drafting Shohei Ohtani or Bobby Witt Jr. with the first pick; I have also seen Aaron Judge go with the first pick this spring.

But let's say you are picking seventh in a 12-team league. Let's talk about that process. In a 12-team league, you should have your pick of a great outfielder at pick seven. Let's look at Juan Soto, Corbin Carroll, and Kyle Tucker. The ATC projections of three potential targets are listed below.

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Round 1 Mindset and Draft Targets

Soto has the highest ADP of the three outfielders listed above. He will be moving from the Bronx to Queens to play for the Mets and should continue to produce great results. Notice that all three provide you with great counting stats, but when selecting here, you need to be thinking about your roster construction.

For example, Soto will give you the most home runs, runs, and RBI, based on projections, with a nice batting average. He will chip in with a few steals. Carroll and Tucker should both steal more bases than Soto, but the drawback with Carroll is a lower batting average and fewer home runs. Tucker provides you with balance in all categories. For the sake of argument, let's say you decide to take Tucker. What's not to like? See below.

Round 2 Mindset and Draft Targets

Moving to Round 2, you will have the 18th pick. Looking at current ADP values on NFBC, you could have your pick of Jackson Chourio, Bryce Harper, or Jarren Duran. Here are the ATC projections:

One point I like to make that fantasy players may not always think about is that you have to think about building backward. Choices you make early on in drafts must be considered in subsequent rounds. You need to make sure you balance your desire for counting stats and ratio control with the thought of drafting a player who still can get to the next level.

In this case, Chourio does that for you. There is also the chance that he has a sophomore slump. Harper is a known quantity when he is healthy. Duran had a breakout last year, but the question is what he does for the encore. He may already have shown the best version of his play last year.

Your build depends on what your thought process is here. With Tucker as your first-round pick, you have a potential 30/30 guy with a good batting average and runs, too. If you choose Chourio, you now have two outfielders in a position of scarcity with great counting stats.

You are off to a great start. Look at Chourio's monthly splits below. Of particular interest is the development over the second half. He is a star in the making. See below for yourself.

Round 3 Mindset and Draft Targets

Let's take a look at possible third-round targets for your team. If you start with the seventh pick, you will pick 31st overall in the third round. Per NFBC ADP in 12-team drafts, the following players could be available to you:

Ok, here is where it starts to get boring, but savvy fantasy players know that boring players provide a great foundation for your team. You might look at these three players and try to glean some differences. I am fine this year with getting a first baseman later, so I would likely be deciding between Devers and Machado.

They are pretty similar players when we look at stats, with the exception that Machado could steal a handful more bases. Those are the kinds of things I look at when drafting similar players; does one have any slight edge that could be meaningful?

Add in that Devers has two balky shoulders and a deteriorating relationship with Boston management, and you decide to draft Machado. He is still terrific; see the Statcast data below.

Now, after your first three picks, you have Tucker, Chourio, and Machado. So, you are hoping for a batting average of around .270, 90+ home runs, 275+ RBI, 250+ runs, and 60+ stolen bases. That is a great base, in my opinion.

If you start a draft with Tucker, Chourio, and Machado, you can likely then take an ace in the fourth round and maybe get a closer in the sixth or seventh round, too. The goal is to build a broad skill base of players that allows you to attack every hitting category with those top three picks.

Some More Draft Strategies and Tips

The outfield ranks thin quickly

In many leagues, you may need to fill five outfield slots. In a 12-team league, that would be 60 outfielders deep. In a 15-team league, that is 75 outfielders deep. In some leagues, you might only need to start three outfielders.

Context matters here. In deeper leagues, you want to avoid platoon bats as much as possible and make sure you exhaust your ability to find a volume of at-bats. You are looking for a mix of proven performers and also for upside. In my recent GLARF draft, I did not want to leave the draft room without a good outfield mix of veterans and youngsters with upside.

Too often, I tend to wait on outfielders, so in this 15-team league, I rostered James Wood, Riley Greene, Pete Crow-Armstrong, Cedric Mullins, Jordan Walker, Andrew Benintendi, MJ Melendez, and Miguel Vargas. The mix is players with growth potential (Wood, Greene, Crow-Armstrong) and some boring veterans (Mullins, Benintendi). I like this grouping even if it is notably power light, which I covered at other positions, hopefully.

There are some good middle infield options this year

While many shortstops go in the first two or three rounds, guys like Jeremy Pena and Dansby Swanson are still very solid picks later in drafts. At second base, players like Nico Hoerner and Bryson Stott seem to fall as well. Good options if you miss out on the top at each spot.

You will need more stolen bases to be competitive in the category in 2025

When deciding on hitters in subsequent rounds, always look for guys who could chip in with 10-15 steals. Never stop adding steals if you can help it. There are plenty of later players who will chip in with 8-10 steals after you have already gathered some in the first few rounds; guys like Taylor Ward, Nick Castellanos, Colton Cowser, Heliot Ramos, and Lars Nootbaar will all chip in those 8-10 stolen bases. Players like these are key to adequate roster construction.

If it's a league you historically have played in, know where your league mates value and draft pitching

I think going hitters in the first three rounds is the way to go, but if you know your league mates, check out where they take starting pitching.

If a run starts there, you may need to alter your strategy a bit. In higher-stakes leagues, know that mock drafts will not prepare you for the early run on starting pitchers and closers. You will likely need to adapt your strategy depending on what your thoughts are about having an ace and a top closer this year. I would suggest both in the first five rounds, depending on your league context.

Populating a strong queue is the best thing you can do for yourself in a fast-moving snake draft

You might have a minute to make a decision, or you might have four hours. Either way, always have 6-8 possibilities that you can pivot to quickly. The chances are high that you will get sniped on a player you want, and most likely, several times. Always have alternatives, and always be ready to pivot and take what the draft brings you. A run on a certain position could open up a buying opportunity elsewhere for you.

Do not fall in love with any player, but if you do, get that player

Many analysts will suggest on podcasts and articles to "go get your guy." Do that unless your guy is Nicky Lopez. Lopez is a fine player in real life but will not help your fantasy team. After all, fantasy baseball should be about having fun first. If you enjoy rostering certain players, feel free to do that. Be mindful of your own biases and try not to let them color your perceptions of players.

Take a quick analysis of where you are at after three rounds to better identify what you might need to attack later

Be mindful of position scarcity as you meander through your draft. Be aware that you might need to select a guy sooner than ADP if you want them. ADP is a fine guide, but don't be married to it. As said earlier, get your guys. Always be analyzing.

Most importantly, enjoy the best time of year for fantasy baseball players, and enjoy the time making your fake teams with friends and family while hopefully eating some bad snacks, too.

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