X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Fantasy Baseball Draft Prep: Josh Hamilton

John Hamilton - RotoBaller Fantasy Baseball AdviceJosh Hamilton had a career season in 2012-- a .285 average 43 HR, 128 RBI, 103 R and 7 SB-- that no one seems to be talking about. Instead, there is a lot of focus on his second-half swoon and his sour departure from Texas. Fact check: his second half was a drop-off, but not nearly as bad as you may believe. In his "poor" second half, Hamilton hit .259 with 16 HR, 53 RBI and 49 R, which was in the top 20 in MLB for both HR and RBI. Just as many did going in to 2012, we at RotoBaller believe Hamilton represents a mixed bag of positives and negatives. Let's take a closer look to see where he might come out in 2013.

There are some worrisome factors regarding Hamilton’s contact skills. His contact rate was bad (dropping from 75% in 2011 to 65% in 2012), and that coincided with three consecutive years of an increasing chase rate (swinging at pitchers outside the strike zone): from 2010 to 2012, 37%, 41% and 45% respectively. All this tells us that he's chasing junky pitches and either not seeing the ball well or trying to do his best impression of Vlad Guerrero. His declining contact rate and proclivity for extending the strike zone are negative indicators, i.e., not something you want to see in a top-tier player.

We’re not going to try to get into Hamilton’s head to figure out what he’s thinking upon joining a new team. We do know that he’s leaving a hitter-friendly ballpark and entering one that is much more suited to pitchers, but Hamilton led the majors in 2012 with fifteen “No-Doubt” HRs (courtesy of ESPN Homerun tracker), so we feel comfortable that his power numbers will be fine in Angels Stadium. He likely won't be hurt by the team switch. He's still facing the same pitchers, in the same parks, but importantly, he will NOT have to square up any of the very strong LAA pitching with which he's had to contend in the past.

In spite of our concerns, there is a LOT to like about Hamilton going into the 2013 season. His power is nearly in a league of its own and he is in a Hall-of-Fame lineup with plenty of RBI and run-scoring potential. We expect a regression from last year’s stats: his BA might not top .285, but 35 HR, 100 RBI and 100 R is likely, which places him squarely in the top tier. However, if you’re in a keeper league, the red flags we highlighted may mean this is the time to start dangling Hamilton for a package of up-and-comers like Bryce Harper or Jason Heyward, for example. We expect good things again this year, but of course we'll continue to monitor some key metrics to advise on trade options as the year progresses.
 
 
Net Net:

Josh Hamilton is currently coming off the draft board somewhere mid-to-late Round 2. Considering the upside (potential to be a top-5 performer overall) and downside (eroding contact skills and health issues), that seems about right-- that is, it's pretty fair value. However, if he somehow remains available as late as the third round in your league, draft him IMMEDIATELY. At the end of the day, Hamilton is still a fantasy stud with monster upside - don't hesitate to draft him if a good opportunity presents itself, as he can anchor your outfield. Outfield drops off after the top 20-25 and there are not too many players who can put up all-around stats like Hamilton.

Be sure to also check out RotoBaller's full 2013 fantasy baseball Outfield rankings with ADP comparisons.
 




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Jake Mangum15 mins ago

Exits Game With Groin Tightness
Ryan Pressly24 mins ago

Dealing With Knee Issues
George Kittle26 mins ago

Wants To Be Highest-Paid Tight End
Jac Caglianone27 mins ago

Stays Hot On Wednesday
Tyler Lockett38 mins ago

Joining The Titans
Allan Winans49 mins ago

Strikes Out 10 On Wednesday At Triple-A
50 mins ago

Will Shedeur Sanders' Game Translate To The NFL?
Las Vegas Raiders1 hour ago

Raiders Could Go With Offensive Lineman At No. 6 Overall
NFL1 hour ago

Jaguars, Raiders Looking To Trade Up In First Round
Marcelo Mayer1 hour ago

With Two More Multi-Hit Performances Wednesday
New Orleans Saints1 hour ago

Saints Won't Pick Up Fifth-Year Option On Trevor Penning
Nick Chubb1 hour ago

Not Interested In Retirement
George Pickens2 hours ago

Drawing Trade Interest
Rashee Rice2 hours ago

Taking Part In Offseason Program
2 hours ago

Concerns About Tetairoa McMillan's Lack Of Effort
Jahan Dotson2 hours ago

Eagles Decline Fifth-Year Option On Jahan Dotson
MLB2 hours ago

Rockies-Royals Rained Out On Wednesday
Zach Eflin2 hours ago

To Throw A Side Session Later This Week
Justin Martinez2 hours ago

"All Indications" Justin Martinez Will Be Available On Wednesday
Zack Wheeler3 hours ago

Records Nine Strikeouts
Jared Jones3 hours ago

To Undergo MRI This Week
Luis Rengifo3 hours ago

Returns On Wednesday
Chandler Simpson3 hours ago

Sitting Out Versus Lefty
Joc Pederson3 hours ago

Taking A Seat Versus Southpaw
Leody Taveras3 hours ago

Sitting Out On Wednesday
Brandin Podziemski4 hours ago

Upgraded To Available
Cam Davis4 hours ago

Looking For Better Fortunes At TPC Louisiana
Corey Seager4 hours ago

Goes On 10-Day Injured List With Hamstring Strain
Michael Porter Jr.5 hours ago

Listed As Questionable For Game 3
Minnesota Vikings5 hours ago

Vikings Waive NaJee Thompson, Trevor Reid
Adam Svensson5 hours ago

Making Third Apperence At Zurich Classic
Jonathan Aranda5 hours ago

Sitting Against Southpaw
Jake Fromm5 hours ago

Lions Release Jake Fromm
Logan O'Hoppe5 hours ago

Out Against Pirates
Seattle Seahawks5 hours ago

Cameron Young Let Go By Seattle
Detroit Lions5 hours ago

Detroit Makes Kerby Joseph The Highest-Paid Safety In League History
Davion Mitchell5 hours ago

Moves Into Starting Lineup Wednesday
Seiya Suzuki6 hours ago

Scratched On Wednesday With Wrist Soreness
Brandin Podziemski6 hours ago

Picks Up Questionable Tag
Al Horford6 hours ago

Starts Game 2
Michael Porter Jr.6 hours ago

Practices On Wednesday
Jayson Tatum6 hours ago

Out On Wednesday
Isaiah Stewart6 hours ago

May Miss Another Game Thursday
NYI7 hours ago

Cal Clutterbuck Announces Retirement
Pavel Zacha7 hours ago

Recovering From Small Procedure
Will Smith7 hours ago

Out With Sore Wrist On Wednesday
Connor Wong7 hours ago

Likely To Go On Rehab Assignment This Weekend
Nikolaj Ehlers7 hours ago

To Miss At Least Two More Games
Lucas Giolito7 hours ago

Could Make Season Debut Next Thursday
Miro Heiskanen7 hours ago

Still Out On Wednesday
John Klingberg7 hours ago

Enters Oilers Lineup For Game 2
Evander Kane7 hours ago

To Make Season Debut Wednesday Night
Gabriel Landeskog7 hours ago

Likely To Play In Game 3
Denver Broncos9 hours ago

Broncos Not Expected To Trade Up In Round 1
Houston Texans9 hours ago

Texans Trying To Move Up In Round 1 Of NFL Draft
Atlanta Falcons9 hours ago

James Pearce Jr., Mike Green Potential Top Targets For Falcons
Dallas Cowboys9 hours ago

Cowboys Could Add Wide Receiver Help With No. 12 Pick
New Orleans Saints9 hours ago

Saints Likely To Address Defense With No. 9 Pick?
9 hours ago

Rams Eyeing Trade Up For Tyler Warren, Colston Loveland?
Jaren Jackson Jr.15 hours ago

Posts Team-High 26 Points In Tuesday's Loss
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander15 hours ago

Notches 27 Points Despite Poor Shooting
Max Greyserman15 hours ago

Aiming For Similar Success At TPC Louisiana
Pascal Siakam15 hours ago

Scores Team-High 24 Points In Game 2 Win
Giannis Antetokounmpo15 hours ago

Posts Big Double-Double In Game 2 Loss
Lee Hodges15 hours ago

A High-Upside Player In New Orleans
PGA15 hours ago

Nico Echavarria Looks To Ride Off Of Elite Putting In New Orleans
Julius Randle15 hours ago

Leads Timberwolves In Scoring In Game 2
Gary Woodland15 hours ago

A Player Worth Watching In New Orleans
Luka Dončić15 hours ago

Luka Doncic Nets 31 Points In Lakers Win
Max McGreevy15 hours ago

Returns To The Zurich Classic Of New Orleans
Rasmus Hojgaard15 hours ago

In Search Of Consistency Ahead Of Zurich Classic
Jock Landale15 hours ago

Unavailable For Game 2
Sam Stevens15 hours ago

A Boom-Or-Bust Candidate In New Orleans
Jae'Sean Tate16 hours ago

Remains Out Wednesday
Nicolai Hojgaard16 hours ago

Looking To Turn Season Around At Zurich Classic
John Tavares16 hours ago

Collects Two Points In Overtime Win
Christiaan Bezuidenhout16 hours ago

Looks To Sway A Hot Putter In Teams Favor At Zurich Classic
Frederik Andersen16 hours ago

Posts 40th Postseason Win
Akshay Bhatia16 hours ago

Looking To Bounce Back At TPC Louisiana
Carson Young16 hours ago

Looks To Turn Things Around At TPC Louisiana
Kirill Kaprizov16 hours ago

Leads Wild To Valuable Road Win
Matthew Tkachuk16 hours ago

Returns With Three-Point Performance
Erik Van Rooyen16 hours ago

Looking For Momentum In Louisiana
Anthony Cirelli16 hours ago

Suffers Undisclosed Injury Tuesday
Gabriel Vilardi16 hours ago

May Return To Jets Lineup Thursday
John Klingberg16 hours ago

Ready To Return To Action
Evander Kane17 hours ago

Could Be An Option For Game 2
Andrew Novak1 day ago

Making Start At TPC Louisiana After Near Miss At Harbour Town
Ben Griffin1 day ago

Making Third Career Start At Zurich Classic
Taylor Moore1 day ago

Competing With A New Teammate In New Orleans
Wyndham Clark1 day ago

Making Return To New Orleans
Kurt Kitayama1 day ago

Teeing It Up Again In New Orleans
Collin Morikawa1 day ago

Back At Zurich Classic For Fifth Time
Thomas Detry1 day ago

Making Third Appearance At New Orleans Team Event
Terry Rozier1 day ago

Ruled Out For Wednesday
Damian Lillard1 day ago

Will Have His Minutes Monitored Tuesday
Jayson Tatum1 day ago

Listed As Doubtful For Game 2
Derek Forbort1 day ago

Recovering From Surgery
Martin Fehérváry1 day ago

Martin Fehervary To Miss Postseason Following Knee Surgery
Luke Glendening1 day ago

Available For Start Of Playoffs
Mitchell Chaffee1 day ago

Available Tuesday
Cody Glass1 day ago

Good To Go Tuesday
Brenden Dillon1 day ago

Won't Play In Game 2
Damian Lillard1 day ago

Cleared To Play Tuesday
Nikola Jokić2 days ago

Nikola Jokic Posts 19th Postseason Triple-Double
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF