Carson Kelly: Champ or Chump for Fantasy Baseball?

Welcome to Champ or Chump! We take an extremely detailed look at a single player per piece, incorporating information from everywhere we can think of to determine whether the featured player is a champ or a chump in fantasy baseball. The biggest sources are Baseball Savant and FanGraphs, but we also look at ADP data from FantasyPros, lineup information from RosterResource, rostered rates from Yahoo!, and news items where appropriate.

While every fantasy analyst is focusing on potential early-season breakouts like Steven Kwan and Jeremy Pena, we're going to look at a name you probably haven't thought much about yet to kick things off: Carson Kelly. Kelly is the starting catcher for the Arizona Diamondbacks, and you would be forgiven if you didn't see his solid line for the team last year. After all, the D-Backs were terrible!

Kelly has one walk and no hits to his credit thus far this season, so he's not making any headlines. However, his peripherals suggest that he will hit well for a catcher, a position that fantasy managers consistently struggle to fill without overpaying for a big name like Salvador Perez or J.T. Realmuto. With a 19% roster rate, it may be prudent to add him to your roster before he makes noise and your league mates notice him. Here's why:

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Prospect Pedigree

Carson Kelly was selected by the St. Louis Cardinals in the second round of the 2012 Amateur Draft and consistently cracked Baseball America's top-10 list of Cardinals prospects while on the farm. He converted to catcher in 2014 and quickly earned the approval of scouts for his defensive chops behind the dish, often being named the top defender in an organization known for teaching the fundamentals. The D-Backs liked what they saw and asked for him in the blockbuster trade that sent Paul Goldschmidt to St. Louis.

Consistent Carson

Kelly has received a handful of MLB PAs every season since 2016, but he was underutilized early in his career as an occasional backup to the rarely-rested Yadier Molina. As such, he has only two seasons of at least 300 MLB PAs to his credit: 2019 and 2021. The strange thing is that he posted virtually identical numbers in both cases.

In 2019, Kelly slashed .245/.348/.478 with 18 big flies over 365 PAs. His plate discipline was outstanding with a 13.2 BB% backed by an excellent 25% chase rate, giving him added value in OBP formats but also contributing to his runs scored and BA potential. Kelly didn't strikeout often with a 21.6 K% and 8.6 SwStr%, and he took full advantage of his above-average 18.6% HR/FB with a 41.1 FB%. His .271 BABIP was bad, but also kind of expected when you run like a catcher.

In 2021, Kelly hit .240/.343/.411 with 13 HR in 359 PAs. His HR/FB declined to 12.6%, a drop-off potentially explained by separate IL stints with toe and wrist fractures (wrist injuries in particular are known to sap power production). He still did a good job elevating the ball with a 43.8 FB%, flashed a great eye with a 12.3 BB% and 26.1% chase rate, and kept the strikeouts in check with a 20.6 K% and 9.9 SwStr%. His .270 BABIP was very close to his 2019 mark as well.

Outside of a few missing homers, Kelly posted the same season in both years. The similarities continue if you look at his advanced metrics. Per Statcast, Kelly's average airborne exit velocity was 92.4 mph in 2019 and 92.2 in 2021. His rate of Brls/BBE was 8.5% in both years. His xBA marks were .244 in 2019 and .251 last season. In short, we have 724 PAs of an above-average offensive catcher with the defensive ability to avoid a timeshare. That's fantasy gold!

You may have noticed that we skipped a season in the above analysis. Kelly wasn't good in 2020 with a .221/.264/.385 triple-slash line dragged down by a .250 BABIP and 4.7 BB%. That said, 2020 was a strange season for multiple reasons and it seems fair to give him a mulligan for a couple of bad months. His eye came back in 2021, and a .250 BABIP is low even for a slow catcher vulnerable to the shift like Kelly. This author is confident that the 2019 and 2021 guy with 20+ HR pop and strong OBP is the real Carson Kelly.

Opportunity Galore

A .240-.250 hitter with the potential to pop 20 homers wouldn't be that exciting in most lineups, but Kelly generally occupies an important slot in Arizona's batting order. He only hit sixth on Opening Day, but hit third in the club's second game and fifth in the third. A sustained role in the middle of the lineup would allow Kelly to compile more counting stats than most other catchers even in a weak D-Backs lineup, providing more incentive to roster him.

If you play DFS or in a league that encourages daily micromanagement, you might also be interested to learn that Kelly obliterates lefties. His career triple-slash line against southpaws is .277/.369/.526, making him an interesting option to differentiate your roster when deploying a popular stack.

Kelly isn't a household name yet, but the 27-year-old might be by the end of the season. Other catchers offer comparable power, but Kelly combines it with plus OBP and decent BA potential. His lineup role should also give him more counting stat opportunities than players buried in the order. Kelly is great if you want a "do no harm" catcher without investing any draft day resources, making him a Champ worth looking into in all two-catcher formats and OBP leagues.

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