Fantasy Baseball Buyer Beware: Week 3 Waiver Wire Edition

Week 3 of the MLB season is here, and if you’re not as excited as you were on Opening Day, you’re doing it wrong. We’ve entered the early stages of the season where you start to get a grasp on just how good (or bad) of a season some players are going to have. Rookies are showing what kind of impact they can or can’t make, and guys in new lineups are starting to settle in.

Like many baseball fans, I spend way too much time focusing on my team, the Mariners. But unlike many baseball fans, I also spend way too much time watching every other baseball game. There’s just something about watching how different guys approach an at-bat that makes the games interesting. Especially when you have unexpected guys off to a hot start.

Being able to key in on whose hot streaks are for real and whose are not is important. At this point, you likely still have a roster full of guys you liked enough on draft day to take a flyer on. Dropping them now for a guy that may fizzle out in a week isn’t the most advisable thing to do. That’s where I come in. Let’s break down a few of my favorite “buyer beware” guys heading into Week 3!

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Nolan Gorman, St. Louis Cardinals

I wasn’t buying the hot start for Nolan Gorman and guess what…I’m still not. Enough so that he’s now Exhibit A in this week’s “Buyer Beware” article.

After hitting 14 home runs in 89 games in 2022, it was pretty apparent he was just going to be a one-trick pony in 2023. Instead, we got a completely different version. Of course, he had the two-home run game which had everyone excited, but outside of that, he’s been…average. In those seven games, he’s hitting just .250 with two doubles while being sat multiple times against lefties.

Speaking of that two-home run game, Gorman has really struggled since that contest as well. In the five games since, he’s hit just .235 with an OPS of .536. Small sample size, I know, but it’s worth noting that there is a reason for concern. His swing rate is just 45% and his contact rate has dropped to 67.9%. Both of which are below his numbers from 2022.

The power potential is nice and second base is thin, but there are better options out there moving forward.

Patrick Wisdom, Chicago Cubs

Sometimes in life, you understand that some people are just who we think they are. Patrick Wisdom is one of those people. The definition of a guy box score watchers love and analytics nerds like myself are always skeptical of. This season is no different.

The power has never been an issue. With 28 home runs in 2022 and 25 in 2021, the fact that he already has three should come as no surprise. It’s everything else that should have you surprised and speculating. For one, his .276 batting average is well above his career .219 number and almost 30 points higher than his .247 xBA. His slugging is majorly overachieving as well at .655 with a .394 xSLG.

I’ll give him props on his average exit velocity of 93.5 mph. It is nice but there is so much about Wisdom’s season that makes me nervous. He’s in the 11th percentile in strikeout rate, 13th in walk rate, and 37th percentile in whiff rate. With his line drive rate and contact rates seeing no real change, it’s not long before his average drops back to around .210 where it always is.

Kyle Freeland, Colorado Rockies

Kyle Freeland seems like an obvious addition. At least I saw his roster percentage shooting up and now I feel obligated. Despite what the box scores may tell you, Freeland should be avoided almost completely. Let the incoming implosion be someone else’s problem.

Freeland’s biggest problem? He is now missing bats at an alarmingly low rate. His sinker is his most used pitch. He’s thrown it 56 times, good for a 35% usage rate, and generated zero whiffs. He’s thrown his slider 48 times for a 30% usage rate and generated one single whiff. He’s generated zero whiffs with his fastball and changeup as well.

In fact, the only pitch he’s getting whiffs on is his curveball but he’s thrown it just 28 times. Being a full-time pitch-to-contact guy is not a recipe for success when your home field is Coors. He may be 2-0 but it came against the light-hitting Nationals and on the road at Petco Park, one of the most pitcher-friendly parks in baseball.

Franchy Cordero, New York Yankees

There seems to be somewhat of a buzz surrounding Franchy Cordero after he hit his second home run in a Yankees uniform. Don’t fall for it, though. Cordero's name may be the only intriguing thing about him this season even while playing in New York.

As it sits currently, Cordero is batting .298 with a double, two home runs, and seven RBIs in just five games. Not bad. Below the surface, there is much to be desired. His chase rate of 37.1% is the worst of his career and almost 10% above the league average. His whiff rate of 29% is five ticks above league average and he’s swinging at just 60% of pitches in the zone.

If Cordero pulled the ball more or hit more fly balls, I would be inclined to say a move to Yankee Stadium would only benefit him. With just a career 33.2% fly ball rate and 39.8% pull rate, it’s very likely he continues to lack the power numbers we all wish he had. His current 58% pull rate gives reason for hope but I need to see more of it before I can look past what he’s done in his previous 227 career games.

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