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We've already covered the breakout infielders to target for 2022 fantasy baseball. In this article, we’ll stick to outfielders.
Breakouts are perhaps the most fun part of fantasy baseball. Being able to identify and grab guys as they reach their potential can often be the difference between winning it all and being lost in the shuffle.
Breakouts come in all shapes in sizes. They can be guys that come out of nowhere or can be promising prospects that finally put it all together. Every star player was once a breakout at some point, but there are also tons of breakouts that never reclaim that glory.
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Kyle Tucker, Houston Astros
Kyle Tucker was maybe the most significant breakout from last season. He vaulted into the tier of elite hitters in his first full (162 game) season, with a slash line of .294/.359/.557 with 30 HR, 14 SB, and a 147 wRC+ in 140 games. The first big piece of evidence that this is only the beginning for Tucker is in his expected stats.
Every expected stat suggests that Tucker’s final numbers should have been better, and at age 25, he’s only just entering his prime. This is one of the best hitters in the league and we really have only scratched the surface of his potential. The other reason why it's clear that he will continue to improve is the fact that he has already improved his game so much since his debut.
His plate discipline has improved every season since 2019 and still has room for improvement. It’s clear that Tucker is committed to striking out less and walking more, and it’s also clear that these numbers will get even better. It’s also worth it to note that his average against breaking pitchers was .191 in 2020 and .236 in 2021. That’s a pretty significant jump for one year and still has room for improvement going forward. There are so many little things that Tucker has improved on so early in his career. It’s really impressive and should show anybody that we have not seen his peak yet.
Kyle Schwarber, Philadelphia Phillies
Kyle Schwarber has always been known for his ability to send balls into orbit. While he’s always hit the ball hard, his 2021 season looked like a big step in the right direction toward becoming a much more complete hitter.
Looking at his career, you can clearly see more red in 2021 than any other year, but it's what is red that sticks out to me. His Barrel % of 17.5 was a career-high, good for the 96th percentile in MLB. His WOBA took a major leap forward to .392 and his XWOBA was even higher at .399. These suggest his quality of contact is improving and he is taking better advantage of good pitches. Improving on that suggests that his overall approach is improving too, which can lead to another leap forward in his overall game. He had a 27% strikeout rate in 2021, something that can definitely be improved on. His BB% was 13.6, good for the top 6% in the league, so he shows the ability to put together good at-bats.
Even if he doesn’t improve these skills tremendously, simply staying healthy will give him better numbers this year than last year. His breakout season, including 32 HRs and a 3.1 WAR, only took 113 games to amass. There’s a good chance that 2021 was only a sneak peek into his true breakout, and it's coming in 2022 now that he's got Bryce Harper in front of him in the Phillies lineup.
Teoscar Hernandez, Toronto Blue Jays
Teoscar Hernandez may have technically broken out in 2020. He was fantastic in the shortened season, but many fantasy owners still wanted to see more from the Blue Jays slugger. He gave them what they wanted in 2021, putting together another great season with a .296/.346/.524 slash line with a 132 wRC+ and .369 WOBA.
He hits the ball hard, being in the 88th percentile in average exit velo and 87th in Barrel %. These types of numbers are encouraging, especially now that he has done it for more than 60 games, and shows he is making quality contact on a consistent basis.
In looking at his Baseball Savant page, there are some glaring weaknesses that stick out, and that comes in his plate discipline. It’s hard to think his plate discipline will get worse as he gets more experience, and he’s already shown improvement in his K rate. It was as high as 33% in 2019, followed by 20.4% in 2020 and 24.9% in 2021. Lowering the strikeouts was a big reason for his breakout, so he should work to improve that going forward. His 6.1 BB% can improve as well, especially as the lineup around him has improved and should continue to improve.
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