RADIO
The term "breakout" could mean a number of things depending on the audience. For fantasy baseball purposes, this term means a player who has an outstanding season that exceeds expectations.
Today, I'll be discussing five American League outfielders that I'm expecting to break out offensively this season and provide a nice return on investment at their current ADPs. It's never advised to draft a ton of these types, but sprinkling in a breakout name here and there in your draft can certainly help you this season if they do break out.
Check back here in the next couple of days as well for the National League version of this article. There were so many intriguing breakout candidates for this position that we had to split it up into two articles!
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Jhonkensy Noel, Cleveland Guardians
Full disclosure: this is a bit of a homer pick as I am a devout Cleveland Guardians fan, but that being said, there is a lot to like about this power bat for the upcoming 2025 campaign.
In 2024, Noel broke onto the scene after being called up in late June by hammering 13 home runs and driving in 28 runs across just 198 plate appearances. He is most remembered for the absolute bomb he hit in Game 3 of the 2024 ALCS against the New York Yankees.
Jhonkensy Noel came up CLUTCH for Cleveland during some big moments in his rookie season!
Will “Big Christmas” continue to make an impact on this Guardians team? 🎄 pic.twitter.com/TKGdIQhGAN
— MLB Network (@MLBNetwork) January 8, 2025
Noel is the guy you want to look for when searching for power late in your drafts. He posted a very solid 14.5% barrel rate in 2024, which was well above the Major League average. He also posted a respectable hard-hit rate of 36.8%.
It is likely that Noel will begin 2025 in a platoon with fellow outfielder Will Brennan. However, Noel could take this spot over to himself if he is able to improve upon his .205 AVG vs. right-handed pitching. He could be an absolute steal with a current ADP in the mid-300s.
Kerry Carpenter, Detroit Tigers
Kerry Carpenter likely would have had his breakout season in 2024 had he not missed nearly two months of action with a lumbar spine stress fracture. That being said, he still posted a respectable slash line of .284/.345/.587 with 18 home runs and 57 RBI across 293 plate appearances.
Carpenter posted very strong metrics in numerous hitting categories last season, as noted by Statcast.
Most of Carpenter's success in 2024 came against right-handed pitching, as noted by his .994 OPS, but there is potential for him to see more at-bats against left-handed pitching in the upcoming 2025 campaign. If this is the case, and he is able to improve upon his career .588 OPS vs. left-handers, Carpenter could be great value at his current ADP of 198.
Lawrence Butler, Oakland Athletics
This may be cheating a bit as some could argue that Lawrence Butler had a breakout season in 2024 by slashing .262/.317/.490 with 22 home runs, 57 RBI, and 18 stolen bases, but he is capable of so much more moving forward.
Butler's power/speed combo is something that will make him valuable in all league formats. We should certainly see 20/20 moving forward with the potential to move into the 30/30 range, given the recently updated baserunning rules in Major League Baseball. Across his previous two seasons (majors + minors), Lawrence has ripped 46 bags.
His power is also something we can expect to see grow, given that he ranked in the 80th percentile or better in terms of xSLG, average exit velocity, hard-hit rate, and bat speed. His splits are very similar as well, which makes him a solid everyday outfielder for the Athletics.
Butler's ADP at 86 is a bit higher than most in this article, but he is certainly worth a snag here, as 2025 will be his first full season with the big league club.
Juan Brito, Cleveland Guardians
We are adding yet another Cleveland Guardian to the mix, and this one might be cheating a bit as well. Brito is in contention for the starting second base job in Cleveland. However, he is eligible in the outfield on a number of sites.
Brito has yet to make his big league debut, so advanced metrics are a bit hard to come by. That being said, the potential is real. Across 652 plate appearances in AAA Columbus, Brito slashed .256/.365/.443 with 21 home runs, 13 stolen bases, and a solid 40 doubles.
If he is able to land the everyday second base job by beating out the lackluster Gabriel Arias, as Mandy Bell believes he will do, he could be a really nice selection with the last pick of your draft with a current ADP of 640. The fact that he will be eligible for multiple positions also plays into the value of drafting him. This spring battle is definitely one worth paying attention to.
Jo Adell, Los Angeles Angels
This is probably the last time Jo Adell can be listed in a breakout article, as we have been waiting for it to happen for multiple seasons at this point. He showed some life last year by hitting 20 bombs; however, the .682 OPS left quite a bit to be desired.
His power metrics are not all that bad, as he ranked in the 70th percentile or better in terms of hard-hit rate, barrel rate, and bat speed. He will likely be a staple in the lineup in 2025 as he will see more playing time in center field with the news that Mike Trout will be moving over to right field.
There is no doubting the talent here as he was once the top prospect in the Angel's farm system, but he just has not been able to put it together over the course of a full season in the majors.
Adell currently has an ADP outside the top 400, so managers will not be giving up much to take a flier here. I know this is not the most resounding review for Adell, but the potential for a 30 home run season in still buried in there somewhere.
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