Fantasy Baseball Breakout Hitters Watch and Underachievers, Overachievers (Week 27)

Welcome back to my Week 27 edition of the Fantasy Baseball Breakout Hitters series for the 2024 MLB season! We're running out of time to make those moves that will get us to the fantasy championship, so perhaps there is someone in here who can help get you there. In today's edition, we'll take a look at players like Victor Robles and Luisangel Acuna.

Perhaps these hitters are about to break out or on the verge of a cold spell. Checking in on who's hot (or not) can highlight some notable names. Those names then become potential waiver-wire targets or sneaky DFS plays (or avoids) until the rest of the fantasy community catches on.

Tommy Edman and Starling Marte were a couple of good call-outs from last week who have continued to hit very well. Below, we'll check in on players with the longest hit streaks, highest batting average, and highest ISO over the last seven days, as well as some regression candidates and more. Note that totals are designated by the number in parentheses next to the player's name.

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Hit Streak Leaders

Data through 9/18

Carlos Correa (16)

Carlos Correa was riding a 13-game hit streak before hitting the IL back in July but has collected a hit in three consecutive games since returning September 14, so it is technically a 16-game streak for the veteran.

In the last three games, the 29-year-old is 5-for-10 (.500) with two doubles, four RBI, and a 2:2 BB:K. The 3x All-Star had a nice bounce-back campaign before succumbing to injury, logging career bests in contact rate, strikeout rate, batting average, and wRC+ through 78 games.

CARLOS CORREA!!! pic.twitter.com/Ogx0rtWYYn

— Minnesota Twins (@Twins) September 19, 2024

While he's a zero in the stolen base department, Correa should be a solid four-category producer for the final weeks of the season.

(Update: Correa went 0-for-3 with two walks on Thursday, ending his hit streak)

Jose Iglesias (12)

The Mets have probably gotten more out of Jose Iglesias than expected, but he has yet to slow down at this late stage in the season. The journeyman is in the midst of a 12-game hit streak for the seventh team of his career, going 18-for-44 (.409) during this stretch.

Carlos Mendoza credits Jose Iglesias for bringing "winning baseball" to the Mets pic.twitter.com/gbgomTCwGc

— SNY (@SNYtv) September 17, 2024

The problem for fantasy, specifically DFS, is that just two of those hits have gone for extra bases, and while he's scored nine runs, the 34-year-old has driven in just two runs.

Nevertheless, if managers are looking for a hot bat and are willing to hope some additional production will eventually follow, Iglesias could be the guy.

(Update: Iglesias went 2-for-5 on Thursday, extending his hit streak to 13 games, now the longest in the majors)

Highest Batting Average Last Seven Days

Minimum 13 AB, data through 9/18

Victor Robles (.563)

Like Iglesias, the Mariners have probably got more out of Victor Robles than they expected. Once considered a five-tool prospect, perhaps the 27-year-old just needed a change of scenery after spending the first several years of his career in Washington.

Over the last 20 games in which he logged an at-bat, he's collected a hit in 14 of them, and 13 of those games have been multi-hit efforts. What's more, he's stolen 12 bases during that span as well.

Victor Robles. Again.

His third knock of the game. And with it, each of the Mariners’ four runs today have been scored with two outs. pic.twitter.com/CgJjUbeI3h

— Daniel Kramer (@DKramer_) September 15, 2024

For the season, Robles is slashing .309/.388/.435 with 29 steals in 261 plate appearances. The problem right now is that he's dealing with an injured hand, so make sure he's in the lineup before plugging him in.

Luisangel Acuna (.467)

The Mets called up Luisangel Acuna when Francisco Lindor suffered a back injury last week, and he has not disappointed in his short stint in the majors. Through five games with the big league club, the 22-year-old is 7-for-15 (.467) with a double, two home runs, four RBI, and five runs scored.

Luisangel Acuña's first home run swing in the big leagues looked familiar 👀 pic.twitter.com/ROMko6myps

— SNY Mets (@SNY_Mets) September 18, 2024

After stealing 40 bases at Triple-A before his call-up, the youngster has yet to show off his speed with the Mets, but so long as he keeps getting on base, the steals will surely follow.

The unfortunate thing is that Lindor may be close to returning, but if the Mets can find a way to get him at-bats after Lindor's return, the Venezuelan could be a difference-maker during the fantasy playoffs. He offers eligibility at both SS and 2B as well.

(Update: Acuna went 1-for-4 with a triple on Thursday)

Highest ISO Last Seven Days

Minimum 13 AB, data through 9/18

When it comes to fantasy, especially DFS, we want to see power. More big hits mean more points. Big hits usually drive in more runs, which means more points. Doubles and triples put hitters in a better position to score, which means? You guessed it -- more points! So, who's hitting for extra bases over the past week?

Hunter Goodman (.591)

Hunter Goodman hit 34 home runs last season in the minors and had a stretch in April of this year where he belted seven home runs in eight games at Triple-A, so the power is for real.

Goodman was recalled for the second time this season at the beginning of September, and the former fourth-round draft pick has blasted four home runs in his last five games, going 6-for-18 (.333) with nine RBI and six runs scored.

While he's hot now, the right-handed hitter has recorded just a .193 batting average overall for the Rockies in 2024 with a high 28.1% strikeout rate, so the bottom could fall out at any moment.

But if you're looking to catch lightning in a bottle, Goodman and his 13.6% barrel rate could also provide some much-needed power output at this critical time of the fantasy season.

Wyatt Langford (.500)

Wyatt Langford looked like he was going to break out after hitting .309 in June with six doubles, three triples, three home runs, 22 RBI, and six steals, but he scuffled to a .216/.293/.335 slash line over the next two months.

Well, it looks like the 22-year-old is back at it in September, hitting .344 with seven doubles, four home runs, 12 RBI, 16 runs scored, and three steals through 16 games.

Wyatt Langford takes one to the opposite field to add on for the @Rangers. pic.twitter.com/L3sTZSWrpW

— MLB (@MLB) September 18, 2024

The former fourth-overall draft pick has the pedigree, along with a better-than-average strikeout and walk rate, to keep it up through the end of the season and should continue to raise his draft stock for 2025.

(Update: Langford went 0-for-3 on Thursday)

Most Steals Last Seven Days

Data in the table includes games through 9/18

Brice Turang (4)

Brice Turang was off to the races in the first month of the season, stealing 14 bases after recording an OBP of .375, but his OBP dropped over the next few months, cratering at .221 in July before rebounding to .297 in August.

In September, the 24-year-old has the OBP back up to .339, and with it has come stolen bases. The former first-round draft pick is up to six steals for the month and could easily record double-digit steals in September when it is all said and done.

With regular playing time this season, Turang has set a new career-high with 45 stolen bases in the year, which is good for third-most in baseball, behind only Elly De La Cruz and Shohei Ohtani.

(Update: Turang went 1-for-4 on Thursday but did not record a stolen base)

xBA Underachiever

Data through 9/18

Below are hitters who have some of the biggest differences between their current batting average and their expected batting average, or xBA. While many times this is a good exercise to see who is on the verge of turning things around, it's not certain.

Sometimes hitters over or underperform their xBA throughout their career, so regression to the xBA may not happen.

Brandon Drury (.166 vs. .207)

Even if Brandon Drury were able to claw back to his xBA, a season-hitting .207 is probably one to forget. That doesn't mean he can't still be useful for fantasy in the final weeks of the season. A BABIP of .203 is well below his career average of .286, so it would seem bad luck is at least partially to blame.

He may also be starting to turn it around, with a six-game hit streak to begin in September. He's cooled again over the last week, so perhaps the turnaround was short-lived, but don't be surprised if the veteran can put something together over the final weeks of the season.

(Update: Drury went 1-for-4 on Thursday and recorded his first stolen base of the season)

Honorable mention: Michael Harris II (.247 vs. .278)

(Update: Harris went 3-for-5 with two home runs on Thursday)

xBA Overachiever

Data through 9/18

We'll touch on a hitter below who might eventually cool off. In this case, the BA is much higher than the xBA, and some regression should be expected. Note that players usually exhibit a gradual decline rather than a steep drop-off.

Xavier Edwards (.319 vs. .257)

Xavier Edwards has been a nice story this season and has the speed to outperform his expected batting average over the course of his career, but even the best career BABIPs don't exceed .350.

So, with just 259 plate appearances under his belt in 2024, his current BABIP of .384 may not fluctuate much between now and the end of the season, but as the sample size grows, I would expect that number to come down and his BA along with it.

He may hit well over .300 this season. I'm just not expecting him to do it next season. With a good contact rate (84.7%), a low-ish chase rate (25.5%), and a low strikeout rate (17.0%), he could still prove very useful for fantasy, though, for what's left of this season and the next.

(Update: Edwards went 1-for-3 on Thursday)

Also: Tyler Fitzgerald (.290 vs. .235)

(Update: Fitzgerald went 2-for-4 on Thursday)

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