Fantasy Baseball Breakout Hitters Watch and Underachievers, Overachievers (Week 25)

Welcome back to my Week 25 edition of the Fantasy Baseball Breakout Hitters series for the 2024 MLB season! We're running out of time to make those moves that will get us to the fantasy postseason, so perhaps there is someone in here that can help get you there. In today's edition, we'll take a look at players like Taylor Ward and Dansby Swanson.

Perhaps these hitters are about to break out or on the verge of a cold spell. Checking in on who's hot (or not) can highlight some notable names. Those names then become potential waiver-wire targets or sneaky DFS plays (or avoids) until the rest of the fantasy community catches on.

Connor Norby and Lawrence Butler were a couple of good call-outs from last week who have continued to hit very well. Below, we'll check in on players with the longest hit streaks, highest batting average, and highest ISO over the last seven days, as well as some regression candidates and more. Note that totals are designated by the number in parentheses next to the player's name.

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Hit Streak Leaders

Data through 9/4

Francisco Lindor (15)

Francisco Lindor was having a solid season before the All-Star break, slashing .253/.329/.454 with a .339 wOBA and 122 wRC+ in 95 games, but in the 45 games since then he's taken it up a notch, slashing .316/.372/.595 with a .410 wOBA and 170 wRC+.

Is Francisco Lindor making a serious run at NL MVP? #MLBCentral pic.twitter.com/r8pf9qrdWc

— MLB Network (@MLBNetwork) September 4, 2024

The switch-hitter has reached base in 33 straight games and has hit safely in 33 of 36. He's a big reason the Mets have been able to stay in the playoff race despite how they began the season. It's a longshot, but the 30-year-old has the second-best odds for NL MVP behind Shohei Ohtani.

Taylor Ward (14)

Taylor Ward came out of the gates swinging, hitting .268 over the first two months of the season with 11 home runs, but then went ice-cold over the next two, hitting .177 with just five homers.

Taylor Ward has homered in three straight games 😤 pic.twitter.com/C8QiD4jJf6

— MLB (@MLB) September 5, 2024

The 30-year-old picked it up in August though, slashing .283/.318/.444 and has rode the momentum into September, with home runs in three straight games and four of five. Widely dropped during his earlier slump, Ward is rostered in just 60% of Yahoo leagues.

(Update: Ward went 0-for-3 with a walk on Thursday, ending his streak)

Highest Batting Average Last Seven Days

Minimum 13 AB, data through 9/4

Dansby Swanson (.462)

Dansby Swanson was mentioned in last week's article for picking it up in the stolen base department, but now he's hitting too (he was also mentioned as an xBA underachiever).

With a 73.0% contact rate, he battles bouts of inefficiency, but he also can get locked in at times, and this seems to be one of those stretches (although it seems like everyone on the Cubs is locked in right now).

Dansby Swanson and Pete Crow-Armstrong go back-to-back at Wrigley 🚀 pic.twitter.com/WXhnveuDva

— MLB (@MLB) September 5, 2024

He'll likely go cold again, but while he's hot, the 30-year-old is available in 22% of Yahoo leagues for managers willing to take a chance on him heading into and during the fantasy playoffs.

Lawrence Butler (.448)

We called out Lawrence Butler last week because of his ISO, but this week he pops up for batting average, going 13-for-29 (.448) over the past week (seven games).

Make no mistake, the 24-year-old is still hitting for power, with 10 of the 13 hits going for extra bases (five doubles, five homers). He's available in 21% of leagues still if managers need a hot bat heading into the fantasy playoffs.

(Update: Butler went 1-for-4 on Thursday)

Highest ISO Last Seven Days

Minimum 13 AB, data through 9/4

When it comes to fantasy, especially DFS, we want to see power. More big hits mean more points. Big hits usually drive in more runs, which means more points. Doubles and triples put hitters in a better position to score, which means? You guessed it -- more points! So, who's hitting for extra bases over the past week?

Randal Grichuk (.813)

Grichuk has the second-fewest at-bats on this list, but was able to manage four home runs (and a double) in 6 games over the past week.

He mostly plays against lefties, although not exclusively (144 AB vs LHP, 75 AB vs RHP), so it can be frustrating for season-long fantasy, but he could be in play for DFS if a strong matchup presents itself versus a left-handed pitcher.

(Update: Grichuk went 0-for-2 on Thursday)

Mickey Moniak (.619)

Mickey Moniak was slashing .207/.250/.328 with six home runs through the end of July (88 games), but in the month of August alone he belted six home runs and slashed .359/.397/.719.

MICKEY MONIAK DINGER 💪@Angels | #RepTheHalo pic.twitter.com/lAEHvNUCiA

— Bally Sports West (@BallySportWest) September 5, 2024

In terms of batting average, the former first-overall draft pick has got off to a slow start in September, going 1-for-12 through three games, but the one hit was a home run. Target him against right-handed pitching, as he rarely gets looks against lefties (320 AB vs RHP, 26 vs LHP).

Garrett Mitchell (.500)

Garrett Mitchell came off of the IL in July and has performed admirably despite a high K% (31.5%), contributing across categories with a .261-4-13-23-7 line in 50 games.

The 26-year-old also has nine doubles and a pair of triples to go along with a better-than-average walk rate of 11.7%. The strong .352 OBP should continue to provide stolen base and run-scoring opportunities.

The former first-round draft pick is available in nearly all Yahoo leagues.

Most Steals Last Seven Days

Data in table includes games through 9/4

Jazz Chisholm Jr. picked right back up where he left before hitting the IL briefly in the middle of August, and after underwhelming based on last year's stolen base production, Corbin Carroll has picked up the pace lately.

Josh Lowe (4)

Back on August 19, I mentioned that Josh Lowe was getting on base and stealing bases. Then of course he stopped stealing bases for 11 games. But now he's back at it!

He's stolen four bags over the past week, but he's continued to hit regardless. Over the last nine games, the 26-year-old is 13-for-33 (.394) with a .444 OBP.

So long as the former first-round draft pick keeps getting on base, there will continue to be opportunities to swipe more bags.

(Update: Lowe went 0-for-4 on Thursday with no SB)

xBA Underachiever

Data through 9/4

Below are hitters who have some of the biggest differences between their current batting average and their expected batting average, or xBA. While many times this is a good exercise to see who is on the verge of turning things around, it's not certain.

Sometimes hitters over or underperform their xBA throughout their career, so regression to the xBA may not happen.

Addison Barger (.211 vs. .245)

Addison Barger is getting his first taste of major league action this season, and while it has been somewhat of a struggle, there is reason for hope.

One reason is that his xBA is quite a bit higher than his actual batting average. He's making contact at a league average rate (76.5%) and barreling the ball at a decent rate (9.3%) but has a low BABIP, especially considering his BABIP history in the minors.

Addison Barger just missed a #walkoff HR.

On the very next pitch, he didn't miss! pic.twitter.com/QZXgh4HpID

— MLB (@MLB) August 24, 2024

The 24-year-old may be in the process of turning it around too, going 13-for-39 (.333) over his last 11 games with with two doubles and four home runs.

The former sixth-round draft pick is eligible at 3B, SS, and OF in Yahoo leagues while being just 4% rostered.

Honorable mention: Whit Merrifield (.219 vs. .246)

xBA Overachiever

Data through 9/4

We'll touch on a hitter below who might eventually cool off. In this case, the BA is much higher than the xBA, and some regression should be expected. Note that the players who've shown up on this list so far this season have continued to hit well for a while, so don't expect them to go cold right away. Rather, it's usually more of a gradual decline.

Tyler Fitzgerald (.297 vs. .245)

As with his teammate Heliot Ramos who I outlined in last week's article, I hate to rain on the parade of a good story, but we look at discrepancies in this section, and Tyler Fitzgerald has a large difference between his BA and xBA.

While Fitzgerald has 99th-percentile speed and could be expected to outperform his xBA throughout his career, there are other reasons that perhaps his batting average could take a dip at the worst time of year for fantasy managers.

The 26-year-old has a contact rate that is a few percentage points below average (72.2%) and has a high strikeout rate (29.9%). That doesn't mean he can't keep hitting for some power with his 8.4% barrel rate.

(Update: Fitzgerald went 2-for-4 with a double and a stolen base on Thursday)

Also: Geraldo Perdomo (.280 vs. .225)

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