Fantasy Baseball Breakout Hitters Watch and Underachievers, Overachievers (Week 24)

Welcome back to my Week 24 edition of the Fantasy Baseball Breakout Hitters series for the 2024 MLB season! In today's edition, we'll take a look at players like Connor Norby and Seiya Suzuki. We'll take our usual look around the league as we head into the weekend to see who is showing signs of meaningful trends that can be revealed in some form or another.

Perhaps a hitter is about to break out or on the verge of a cold spell. Checking who's hot (or not) can highlight some notable names. Those names then become potential waiver-wire targets or sneaky DFS plays (or avoids) until the rest of the fantasy community catches on.

Brenton Doyle and Spencer Torkelson were a couple of good call-outs from last week who have continued to hit very well. Below, we'll check in on players with the longest hit streaks, highest batting average, and highest ISO over the last seven days, as well as some regression candidates and more. Note that totals are designated by the number in parentheses next to the player's name.

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Hit Streak Leaders

Data through 8/29

Tyler Stephenson (12)

Tyler Stephenson owns the longest current hit streak in the majors (for someone not on the IL) at 12 games, but Stephenson has been hitting for longer than what this streak indicates.

After an 0-for-4 day at the plate on July 28, the backstop's batting average sat at .234, but since then, he's gone 31-for-92 (.337) with seven doubles, six home runs, 18 RBI, 21 runs scored in 25 games, raising his BA to .260 in the process.

For the season, the former first-round draft pick is slashing .260/.338/.468 with a .347 wOBA and 118 wRC+ in 112 games played. His 17 home runs on the season are a career-high.

For managers in need of a catcher swinging a hot bat as they head into the fantasy baseball playoffs, Stephenson is available in over 30% of Yahoo leagues.

(Update: Stephenson went 3-for-5 with a home run on Thursday, extending his streak to 13 games)

Tyler Stephenson's home run extends his career-high hit streak to 13 games pic.twitter.com/22YGyaPOLO

— Cincinnati Reds (@Reds) August 29, 2024

Connor Norby (10)

Connor Norby hit a home run in his second game in the big leagues this season as a Baltimore Oriole but struggled a bit overall, hitting just .188 over his first nine games with a 0:12 BB:K.

Now in his second stint in the majors, this time as a member of the Miami Marlins, Norby looks like a more confident hitter, recording a hit in nine straight games as a Marlin and ten games overall.

In nine games with Miami, the 24-year-old is 12-for-36 (.333) with six doubles, two home runs, a 3:8 BB:K, and stole his first base as a major leaguer.

The former second-round draft pick can be had in over 60% of Yahoo leagues and is eligible at both 2B and 3B, making him even more rosterable.

(Update: Norby went 2-for-4 with a pair of walks on Thursday, extending his overall hit streak to 11 games, 10 in a row for the Marlins)

Connor Norby has played 10 games with the Marlins.

He as a hit in every single one of them. pic.twitter.com/RhM9y3ISjr

— Bally Sports Florida: Marlins (@BallyMarlins) August 29, 2024

Zach McKinstry (8)

Zach McKinstry has an eight-game hit streak going, and during the streak he's recorded a double and a home run, but perhaps more intriguing for fantasy purposes is that he's stolen four bases over this stretch.

If you want a Swiss Army knife that is capable of filling multiple holes, the 29-year-old is eligible at 2B, 3B, SS, and OF, plus he is available in nearly all Yahoo leagues. He may be better suited for use in DFS, though, as he will typically be a low-priced option, so use him while he's hot.

(Update: McKinstry went 3-for-4 on Thursday, extending his streak to nine games)

Highest Batting Average Last Seven Days

Minimum 13 AB, data through 8/29

There is certainly a mixed bag of names on this list. We'll discuss two of the more intriguing cases below.

Miguel Amaya (.591)

Miguel Amaya must have been reading all the pieces I've written related to Triple-A catcher Moises Ballesteros where I mention that Ballesteros would be an offensive upgrade over the current Cubs catching corps.

Amaya (and Christian Bethancourt to some extent, for that matter) has caught fire the last six games, going 13-for-22 (.591) with three doubles, two home runs, 13 RBI, and seven runs scored.

The 25-year-old is available in over 70% of Yahoo leagues and will presumably do what he can in the way of offensive production to stave off promotion to the big leagues for Ballesteros.

Seiya Suzuki (.452)

This isn't the first Cub we broke down in this article, and it won't be the last, surprisingly, but that's what will happen when a team is averaging over 10 runs per game over their last seven games.

Seiya Suzuki goes the opposite way to tie the game. 💪 pic.twitter.com/Dp03oDnQyW

— MLB (@MLB) August 27, 2024

Suzuki has been a big reason why the Cubs have won six out of their last seven games. The 30-year-old is 16-for-35 (.457) over his last eight games, with multi-hit games in six of those eight, and it includes two doubles, a triple, three home runs, and a 5:7 BB:K.

Outside a poor month of May, Suzuki has performed well all season, now with a .278-19-64-62-11 line with a .360 wOBA and 134 wRC+.

If you're looking for a DFS angle, Suzuki has been better against RHP (.282 vs. .263) and better away from home (.304 vs. .242), so look to use him in those situations.

Highest ISO Last Seven Days

Minimum 13 AB, data through 8/29

When it comes to fantasy, especially DFS, we want to see power. More big hits mean more points. Big hits usually drive in more runs, which means more points. Doubles and triples put hitters in a better position to score, which means? You guessed it -- more points! So, who's hitting for extra bases over the past week?

Of course, Aaron Judge is on here again, but it's also good to see Matt Olson hitting a ton of extra-base hits again. If you recall, Olson was scorching hot over the final month of the season last year, hitting .352 and blasting 11 home runs, so pitchers may want to look out!

Lawrence Butler (.621)

Including Thursday's game, Lawrence Butler is riding an eight-game hit streak but also now has a three-game home run streak going. His three-homer game on Thursday was the second such time he'd accomplished that feat this season.

LAWRENCE BUTLER, THREE-HOMER GAME TO TIE IT 💪 pic.twitter.com/0g1pORJ6NX

— MLB (@MLB) August 29, 2024

The 24-year-old has emerged as a multi-category producer, but it wasn't always that way this season, with his slash line looking like .174/.257/.265 as recently as June 29 (through 51 games).

Since then, however, the former sixth-round draft pick has hit .315 with 14 home runs and nine stolen bases over 48 games. He's available in about half of Yahoo leagues for managers interested in acquiring his services for what's left of the fantasy season.

Ramon Urias (.474)

Ramon Urias is another intriguing name to get hot over the last week. The 30-year-old had a modest five-game hit streak heading into Thursday's matchup with the Dodgers, during which time he recorded a double, a triple, and two home runs.

Urias bats in a potent Orioles lineup, so if you want a piece of that action for a cheap price, the right-handed hitter could be your guy. In redraft leagues, he's eligible to slot into the 1B, 2B, and 3B positions and is available in nearly 80% of Yahoo leagues.

(Update: Urias went 0-for-3 with a walk on Thursday)

Most Steals Last Seven Days

Data in table includes games through 8/29

Dansby Swanson (5)

Dansby Swanson will be the last Cub we discuss here, I promise, although it should be noted that Pete Crow-Armstrong has been red hot lately.

But even Swanson has gotten in on the action over the past week, belting a pair of home runs, driving in nine runs, logging a 6:7 BB:K, and stealing five bases as well.

Dansby Swanson gets the @Cubs into double digits with a grand slam. 😎

(MLB x @DairyQueen) pic.twitter.com/JsPPOfp9o9

— MLB (@MLB) August 27, 2024

The 30-year-old has had trouble living up to the hype of a No.1 overall draft pick over the course of his career, at least on the offensive side of things, and this year has been another disappointment, slashing just .227/.302/.365.

Nevertheless, he is on pace to set a new career-high in stolen bases this season as he currently has 15, and his previous high is 18. The 2x All-Star won't cost much for DFS, and at least if he is not hitting much, stolen bases can help fill in the stat sheet.

xBA Underachiever

Data through 8/28, minimum 400 AB

Below are hitters who have some of the biggest differences between their current batting average and their expected batting average, or xBA. While many times this is a good exercise to see who is on the verge of turning things around, it's not certain.

Sometimes hitters over or underperform their xBA throughout their career, so regression to the xBA may not happen.

Marcus Semien (.242 vs. .264)

After driving in 100 runs last season and scoring 122 times, 2024 has not been as kind to Marcus Semien. The veteran owns a .242-18-64-81-4 line in the year, which is his lowest batting average since 2016 (excluding 2020).

Even though he doesn't have a chance of making up for those RBI and run totals from last season, the good news is that based on his xBA, there is a chance he ends the season on a high note.

The 33-year-old had a solid eight-game hit streak earlier this month, but his bat has gone cold again over the last week. If he can get hot again, it will be just in time for the fantasy playoffs.

(Update: Semien went hitless in five at-bats on Thursday, so he still has yet to turn it around)

Honorable mention: Dansby Swanson (.227 vs. .249) - in addition to the uptick in steals, Swanson is due for some hits to start dropping in to also help in the way of batting average.

xBA Overachiever

Data through 8/28, minimum 400 AB

We'll touch on a hitter below who might eventually cool off. In this case, the BA is much higher than the xBA, and some regression should be expected. Note that the players who've shown up on this list so far this season have continued to hit well for a while, so don't expect them to go cold right away. Rather, it's usually more of a gradual decline.

Heliot Ramos (.284 vs. .251)

I don't want to see it end, so hopefully there is little to no more regression here, but Heliot Ramos has one of the biggest discrepancies  between BA and xBA.

Despite what that data point says, Ramos is doing just fine over the past couple weeks, hitting safely in 11 of his last 13 games, going 15-for-49 (.306) over that span, with four doubles, a triple, and three home runs.

Heliot Ramos goes 429 feet to the upper deck 😳 pic.twitter.com/RBSw4L6wvF

— MLB (@MLB) August 24, 2024

Hopefully, his bat does not go cold when it matters most, the fantasy baseball playoffs, and I don't believe it will as he's still making decent contact in the zone, not chasing balls at an abnormal rate, and barreling it up at a 16.0% rate on the season (19.4% last 13 games).

(Update: Ramos went 0-for-4 on Thursday)

Also: Nolan Arenado  (.271 vs. .252)

(Update: Arenado went 0-for-5 on Thursday)

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