After a weekend full of defensive touchdowns, we were all reminded yet again about how much the D’s six points affects your chances of winning come Tuesday morning. And if you don’t believe me, ask anyone who had the pleasure of starting the Kansas City unit Monday night. Those are the Monday nights that remain in the memories of fantasy owners until you carry your favorite player’s jersey to the grave. And losing on Monday night to a defense or a kicker? Other, much different memories to stick with those owners.
So my advice for the week-to-week grind of DFS, find the matchup where return touchdowns are going to be scored. Sure, easier said than done, and sure there were will be weeks where your defense makes you want to cry. But facts are fact. A defense that surrenders 25 points but scores on an interception return still scores nine points no matter what. In a game where 9 points could vault you up over 5,000 rankings, you have to be smart with those defenses and find the sleepers.
That being said, let me get to my Week 5 suggestions for weekly league formats.
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FanDuel Lineup Picks for Week 5
Seattle’s Defense ($5,500) - I’m hoping that you could have seen this one coming. If you’re going to “splurge” (you can make up the extra $500 elsewhere easily) then absolutely do it on the defense of the defending Super Bowl champions who just had a weekend off after they bested their Super Bowl foes a weekend before that.
On the other hand, the Redskins have quarterback issues, are coming off of back to back emotional divisional games, and are the focus of an episode of South Park in their upcoming season. It's not looking too pretty for the football team in our nation's capital.
Earl Thomas, Richard Sherman and the rest of the Legion of Boom will have every intention of one-upping the Giant’s performance from last Thursday as Kirk Cousins tries to sling it into the darkness that is this defense.
Denver Defense ($5,100) - Denver also went into their bye week following the Super Bowl rematch. Consequently they had fourteen days to think about how they still may not be good enough to beat anyone they would see in the Super Bowl from the NFC. I’d imagine that DeMarcus Ware and T.J. Ward are not going to be happy knowing that they’re not making the difference that they are paid to make.
And they’re meeting an Arizona team who also is coming off a bye that very well could have pushed the break on the momentum that had been building for three weeks. They might need at least a week to crank it all back up, and I don’t imagine the Broncos have any intention of giving them a break because of it.
Zac Stacy ($7,100) - St. Louis travels to Philadelphia for a track me- I mean, football game with the Eagles. I don’t know if you’ve heard, but the boys from Philly enjoy playing fast. This means that the Rams’ offense will be on the field for a pretty good portion of the game. The bigger that portion, the better your bet is.
Yes, he’s been losing carries to Benny Cunningham and occasionally Trey Watts. But this potential effect on his fantasy value is counteracted by his ability to catch the ball and Austin Davis’ willingness to throw it to him. Plus the Eagles took a licking in a physical battle with the 49ers last weekend, while the Rams (as you probably could guess by my running theme so far in this column) were enjoying a mini-vacation on the bye.
Bold Prediction: two touchdown game from the former Vanderbilt Commodore.
Andrew Hawkins ($5,300) - Hawkins is the WR1 for a Browns team that might be better than we all had expected (not counting Brian Hoyer) when the season started. The great thing about players like Hoyer (people who just know what they're doing and get stuff done) is that they find a way to make everything run proficiently well. In a football game, that means everyone gets their yards.
Hawkins knows it. He’s been averaging 11.6 points per game, with the only complaint against him being his inability to find the endzone. And as much as we, as fantasy owners, fret about it, don’t think for a second that he isn’t thinking about it more than all of us combined. The boys in Cleveland have had two weeks to devise ways to reverse this trend and will go into quite the battle against a 1-3 Tennessee team.
If the Browns are going to keep from letting yet another season begin to slip away, it’s got to start this week. Let’s see what Hawkins is made of when everything is on the line.
Russell Wilson ($8,300) - Washington on Monday Night? Following a bye? Amid insensitive controversy? Please and thank you. You know this whole Redskins issue ticks off a good natured guy like Russ Wilson (Don't believe me? Check out what he had to say at ThePlayersTribune.com and you'll jump on board). You know what he’s capable of doing with two weeks to prepare for an opponent (Exhibit A: the Super Bowl. Exhibit B: he laid 310/3 with almost 50 on the ground against the Saints following their bye in 2013).
He’s going to be running all over FedEx Field. Again, I’m always taking a team who is as hyped as they can be coming out of a bye against a team that is in so much disarray, it makes the Kardashians look mild mannered. And it starts with the quarterback.