FanDuel MLB Lineup Picks (4/17/21): Daily Fantasy Baseball Advice

 We have a very intriguing five-gamer over on FanDuel's main slate and it's certainly an entertaining group of matchups to build lineups for. There's one premier pitching duel with Kershaw and the Dodgers facing Darvish and the Padres, but both of those offenses are fully capable of ruining an opposing pitcher's night. Additionally, this may be a slate where we'll be able to find a very cheap arm (or two) to produce value and have the ability to spend up on more high-priced bats. It may be worth going both routes if you're making multiple lineups tonight.

I'll be providing you with my daily fantasy baseball lineup picks for the FanDuel main slate on 4/17/2021. Be sure to also check out all the MLB player news, including late scratches, and the projected and confirmed daily MLB lineups for each DFS slate. You can also check out today's DraftKings MLB DFS lineup picks, and read more DFS advice and lineup picks for other sports too. Let's get to it!

FanDuel DFS Pitchers

Cash Game/GPP Anchor Play:

Zack Greinke - HOU vs. SEA ($8,700)

I'm not too eager to target the two most expensive pitchers who are facing the second and third-least strikeout-prone offenses tonight in Kershaw and Darvish. The Dodgers trail only the Reds with a .204 ISO and lead the league in AVG, OBP, SLG, and wOBA, while the Padres rank well in those categories too and will have Tatis Jr. back in the lineup. Obviously, Kershaw and Darvish are playable with their incredible upside (and work great in cash games as they give you a high floor), but I'm getting to other pitchers tonight.

The pivot here is veteran Zack Greinke facing the much-less-imposing Seattle Mariners. Greinke's coming off a terrible start against the Tigers where he posted two FD points while allowing 10 hits and six earned runs, but that should just serve to keep his rostership low. He posted 31 and 40 FD points in his two prior starts. The Mariners have a 28.4% strikeout rate against RHP's this season (12th-highest in the MLB) and while Greinke has posted a terrible 12.9% strikeout rate thus far, it's fair to expect that will normalize closer to his 21.8% career average as the sample size grows. The M's lineup isn't one to fear and you can save some salary space by getting to Greinke tonight.

Alternate Play

Brett Anderson - MIL vs. PIT ($6,000)   

Anderson is just incredibly cheap and I'm not really sure why that's the case. He has pitched pretty well, going five innings in his two starts while putting up 14 and 21 FanDuel points. That kind of performance will be fine at his minimum salary, but we're looking for a little bit more tonight in this matchup against the Bucco's. The Pirates have been better-than-expected on offense so far, but they've been propped up by a .311 BABIP and they haven't been good against LHP with a brutal .215 AVG and just two homers on the year. Anderson isn't going to blow anyone away with his metrics and his strikeout rate (and whiff rate) have been abysmal for years now, but we're just looking for five to six innings and 20+ FD points here at his low price point. It can be done.

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FanDuel DFS Infielders

Corey Seager - SS, LAD vs. SDP ($3,700)

Seager could be a great leverage play as people will likely want to get away from targeting hitters against Yu Darvish (and Kershaw). He comes into the game on fire with two homers, three RBI, and five runs scored over his last four games. He's averaging 17.9 FD points per game in that stretch. Seager will have the matchup advantage as a lefty facing Darvish and while Darvish obviously has filthy stuff, his fastball velocity ranks in the bottom 10% of the league and he's allowing a high 10.6% Barrel %. Look for Seager to keep his hot streak going tonight.

Keston Hiura - 1B/2B, MIL vs. PIT ($2,500)

I'm loving Hiura at this ultra-cheap price point. He has three double-digit FD point games in his last five and while he's hitting for a low .111 AVG this year and getting K'd up a ton (36.4%), he's still getting the barrel on the ball at a decent rate (62nd percentile) and has a great chance to right the ship tonight against journeyman Trevor Cahill tonight. Cahill has an impressive 12/2 K/BB rate over his two starts, but he gave up seven earned runs to the Reds in his 2021 debut and is prone to that kind of outing at this stage in his career. He ranks in the bottom 8% in Hard Hit% and he's allowing a high 91.2 MPH AVG Exit Velo.

Josh Donaldson - 3B, MIN vs. LAA ($3,000)

Quintana is a pitcher to target hitters against as he currently sports a 16.20 ERA and 3.40 WHIP to go along with one of the worst walk rates in the MLB (20.6%). Donaldson got hurt on Opening Day, but he's back in the lineup and has posted 9.2 and 9.5 FD points over the last few days. He's 4-for-7 on the year and has hit LHP well in his career (.275 AVG). FanGraphs projections have him hitting between 19 and 24 homers this year - tonight's a great night to get going on that number.

Manny Machado - 3B, SDP vs. LAD ($3,400)

We don't have to completely avoid the hitters in this game just because they're facing top-tier pitchers. Remember, these are elite offenses too. The Padres getting Tatis Jr. back will only serve to boost Machado's chances of seeing pitches to hit, and he has been mighty productive as of late. He's coming off consecutive outings of 28.7 and 33.6 FD points, with one homer, three RBI, five runs, five walks, and two steals in those games. In fact, he has exceeded 14 FD points in six of his last seven games. He's absolutely crushing the ball - get him in your Kershaw-less lineups.

FanDuel DFS Outfielders

Mike Trout – OF, LAA vs. MIN ($4,500) and Nelson Cruz - OF, MIN vs. LAA ($3,800)

We're saving money by getting to Greinke or Anderson, so make sure to take advantage by getting to the high-priced bats who are in great spots. Trout and Cruz are my two favorite studs to get to on tonight's slate, hands down.

Trout is just hitting the seams off the ball, ranking in the 96th percentile or better in AVG Exit Velo, Hard Hit %, xwOBA, xBA, xSLG, and Barrel %. He's slashing .386/.526/.750 with a .364 ISO (10th in the MLB). He's crushing everything and has been particularly loving offspeed pitches, where he's hitting .500 with a 1.250 SLG %. Shoemaker throws a splitter and slider on 54.1% of his pitches. Trout has always been a righty-crusher and in his last full 162-game season (2019), he hit for a .303 AVG with 35 of his 45 homers off RHP. The Angels have a 4.5 run implied total; fire up one of the best hitters of all time.

Cruz is due for a big game as he has posted four single-digit outings in a row coming into tonight. The 40-year-old is hitting .390/.426/.732 with four homers and 10 RBI's so far this season, and he holds a monster .341 ISO (12th in the MLB). Cruz is also in the top 2% in Hard Hit%, xwOBA, and Barrel %. He's got the juicy matchup advantage against LHP Jose Quintana - Cruz has eight hits and a 1.279 OPS in his 16 at-bats against LHP this season. He has been a lefty-masher his whole career and that won't be changing tonight. Quintana is the cheapest pitcher on the slate for a reason - he hasn't made it past the fourth inning in his two starts and has allowed 10 hits, seven walks, and nine earned runs. He's allowing a ton of hard contact and struggling with walks - both are recipes for Cruz to excel tonight.

Kyle Garlick - OF, MIN vs. LAA ($2,200)

Targeting Twins' hitters against Quintana is a wise move, as detailed in the last sentence of the paragraph above. Garlick is very cheap and while the sample size of 25 at-bats is still very small, he's hitting a solid .280/.321/.400 on the year. He strikes out quite a bit, but he holds a nice 41.9% Hard Hit%. Most importantly, he'll likely hit in the six spot in a lineup that should produce plenty of runs against the vulnerable Quintana. The Twins currently have a 4.6-run implied total (and I think it should be a little higher).

Joey Gallo - OF, TEX vs. BAL ($3,100)

Gallo's price here is very appealing as he has the lefty-righty advantage and Dean Kremer isn't MLB-ready, simply put. Kremer has started two games and lasted just three innings in each, allowing two homers, five walks, and seven earned runs. This translates to an egregious 10.50 ERA and 2.33 WHIP, and his advanced metrics are some of the worst you'll ever see (check the rankings below). Gallo has altered his launch angle and is hitting fewer homers as a result, but he's still hitting the ball hard (70th percentile AVG Exit Velo) and he walks at the highest rate in the entire league (23.3%).