FanDuel MLB DFS Lineup Picks (9/5/21): Daily Fantasy Baseball Advice

If you're still playing MLB DFS by the point in the season, first of all, let me salute you because it's a long season and many have already given up on this game we love. And secondly, I hope you have learned to embrace the variance that occurs in baseball and especially some of the weird and wacky stuff that can happen in August/September baseball.

With 11 games on the slate, there are plenty of options for our rosters. My biggest piece of advice on large slates is to trust your research and process. Don't be afraid to fade some chalky spots or cross off some games entirely if you're not interested in them. Even if you are playing 150 lineups, you can't get exposure to every pitcher with a favorable matchup or offense with a solid Vegas total. You have to pick your spots!

I'll be providing you with my daily fantasy baseball lineup picks for the FanDuel main slate on 9/5/2021. Be sure to also check out all the MLB player news, including late scratches, and the projected and confirmed daily MLB lineups for each DFS slate. You can also read more DFS advice and lineup picks for sites like DraftKings, and other sports.

FanDuel DFS Pitchers

Cash Game Plays

Dylan Cease vs. KC ($9,300)

Dylan Cease has been a different pitcher in the month of August and we will see if it continues into September here. In August, Cease has pitched 35 innings, struck out 50 batters picked up four wins and had an ERA of 2.83 across six starts. He has the third-highest K% on the slate at 30.8% on the season and comes at a discounted $9,300 compared to Corbin Burnes (34.5% K% and $11,500) and Robbie Ray (31.9% and $11,200). On one hand, the Royals have the third-lowest K% as a team at just 21.5%. On the other hand, Cease pitched against them on August 3rd and went 6 innings, struck out 11 batters, and allowed no runs. Given how well he has pitched, the lack of weather concern in Kansas City this afternoon, and the fact that Kansas City has one of the lower run totals, I am comfortable using Cease as my Cash Game or Anchor SP today.

GPP Play

Corbin Burnes ($11,500) vs. STL - With a 34.% K%, 4.8% BB%, SIERA of 2.65 and allowing just 0.32 HR/9, Burnes is the best pitcher on the slate by far. I am listing him here as a GPP play because of his price. Saint Louis isn't a slouch and playing Burnes makes it difficult to put top-hitting stacks into your lineup. That said, last time Burnes faced the Cardinals, he only struck out 3 batters in 6 innings. If I am playing multiple lineups, I want one Burnes lineup for sure.

Others to consider:

Robbie Ray ($11,200) vs. OAK - Clearly the second-best pitcher on the slate: 31.9% K%, 6.2% BB%, SIERA of 3.15. Similar to Burnes, facing a pretty good team in Oakland. Last time he faced Oakland: 6 innings, 9 strikeouts, 3 runs allowed on two HRs (Ray does have a 1.41 HR/9, he can give those up), but that was also May 5th.

Luis Castillo ($9,900) vs. DET - This has not been a great year for Castillo, as he is 7-14 with a 4.30 ERA and posting a K% of just 23.5%. But that's why he is a GPP play today. Detroit has the 4th highest K% in baseball at 25.6% and 10th lowest ISO at 0.162. The potential for him to give up a couple of runs is high, but the potential for him to pick up a quality start, a win, and get 7-8 strikeouts is also high.

Nick Pivetta ($7,500) vs. CLE - I felt like I have to add someone that is lower cost as all of my plays have been higher cost. Sometimes in a tournament, that's a way to be different though. We often think of a GPP pitcher as a punt, but sometimes reaching up $11k or more is the way too. Anyhow with Pivetta, he has a 25.9% K% which is the next highest on the slate after Cease (it goes Burnes, Ray, Cease, Pivetta). The negatives for Pivetta are his BB% is 10.7%, Cleveland is just 17th in K% at 23.2%, and 9th in ISO at 0.174. Boston is favored, Pivetta likely goes 5-6 innings and gets 5-6 strikeouts here. If he can keep his walks down and get run support, he could be OK here today.

FanDuel GPP Stacks

I am a tournament player, so I am going to give some GPP recommendations, and then I will give some value plays on the slate that I think can be good for either your GPP lineup or for cash games.

1. New York Yankees: Tied for the highest game total on the slate at 9.5, facing Baltimore. I imagine they will be the most popular stack of the slate. To differentiate, pick something different than 1-4. The players with the highest ISO on the Yankees against LHP are Kyle Higashioka (0.333 - likely not playing since caught yesterday), Gary Sanchez (0.283), Aaron Judge (0.254), Rougned Odor (0.217), Giancarlo Stanton (0.211), Gio Urshela (0.185). Sanchez, Urshela, and Odor (if he plays) are likely to hit in the second half of the order. See what the lineup looks like, don't be afraid to target guys in the second half of the order if they include any of the above listed.

2. Toronto Blue Jays: They might be popular with a high implied total and win probability. Highest ISO against LHP for the Blue Jays: Teoscar Hernandez (0.402), George Springer (0.263), Marcus Semien (0.230), Alejandro Kirk (0.222), Danny Jansen (0.191), Randall Grichuk (0.186), Bo Bichette (0.183), Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (0.171). Similar to the Yankees: taking a Teoscar that might bat 5th, Kirk who might bat 6th or 7th in that stack is a way to have some of highest ISO guys but be different than the 1-4 most will try to use.

3. Tampa Bay Rays: There's not a ton of analysis to do here: Griffin Jax is not a good pitcher - he has a 5.12 SIERA, is allowing 2.68 HR/9 and is backed by one of the worst bullpens in baseball with a 4.66 bullpen ERA.

4. Milwaukee Brewers: I have to give a low $ play since my GPP recs are higher $ pitchers. Jon Lester by any measure is the worst pitcher on this slate. His K% 14.1% (the lowest), his SIERA is 5.37 (the highest), his K-BB% is 5.4% (by far the lowest on the slate). The game has a total of just 8, so it won't be popular, but I wouldn't hesitate to stack against Lester here. The Cardinals bullpen is average, so if playing, we have to hope they can do a bunch of damage to Leser before they yank him.

FanDuel DFS Value Plays

Here are some one-off options to help fill out your rosters that are at a value. You can also use any players from the above stacks as one-offs or make mini-stacks off of the recommended stacks above as well.

1. Joey Wendle- 3B/SS vs. MIN ($2,800) - Likely batting 6th in the order, has an ISO of 0.170 against RHP, and will hit in a run-producing spot.

2. Jesus Sanchez- OF vs. PHI ($2,600) - Has an iso of .240 against RHP. This looks to be a bullpen game for the Philadelphia Phillies.

3. Mike Moustakas- 2B/3B vs. DET ($2,300) - The Reds have one of the higher implied run totals. Moustakas will likely bat 5th in the order and he's always a threat to hit multiple home runs in a game. At $2,300 in a game in which runs are projected to be scored, happy to take him at this value.

Best of luck and I hope it's a profitable slate for you!

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