FanDuel MLB DFS Lineup Picks (5/7/21): Daily Fantasy Baseball Advice

We have another massive Friday night slate on tap this week, with all but one game on FanDuel’s main slate. There are a number of upper-echelon pitchers to choose from as well, along with some very pitcher-friendly parks such as the Coliseum in Oakland and Oracle Park in San Francisco.

However, thanks to the deep player pool and some suspect arms, there are also plenty of viable one-off bats to work with. Some of the offenses that carried the highest expectations heading into the season are also starting to finally show signs of life in recent games, which helps guide a couple of my suggestions today.

I'll be providing you with my daily fantasy baseball lineup picks for the FanDuel main slate on 5/7/2021. Be sure to also check out all the MLB player news, including late scratches, and the projected and confirmed daily MLB lineups for each DFS slate. You can also read more DFS advice and lineup picks for sites like DraftKings, and other sports.

FanDuel DFS Pitchers

Cash Game/GPP Anchor Play:

Trevor Rogers – MIA vs. MIL ($10,400)

Rogers has been an ace in every sense for the Marlins, even pitching reasonably well in his two losses. The left-hander’s impressive array of numbers include a 1.91 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 44:13 K:BB in 33 innings, 0.5 HR/9, .191 BAA and 84.8 percent LOB rate. Rogers’ 2.89 xERA and 3.30 xFIP also indicate he’s not just getting lucky and working around trouble, and Friday, he’s in for a particularly advantageous matchup in his pitcher-friendly home park. The Brewers have done some long-ball damage against lefties (10 homers in 236 plate appearances), but that’s been a big chunk of their success versus that handedness. Milwaukee is striking out at a 30.2 percent clip against left-handed pitching on the road specifically, and Rogers’ ability to keep the ball in the park against a lineup that will be missing Christian Yelich (back) could help lead him to a fantasy performance in the neighborhood of his last home start (55 FD points over seven innings against the Orioles on April 21).

Potential Alternate Play

Jose Urquidy – HOU vs. TOR ($7,400)   

Urquidy comes at a very sizable discount off the likes of Carlos Rodon ($11,200) and Rogers to name but two examples, and he’s capable of offering comparable upside when he’s on. One need look no further than the right-hander’s most recent start, when he hung 46 FD points on the Rays in Tampa on the strength of his second straight quality start. The opposing Blue Jays are a much less fearsome offense when they’re out of the confines of their extremely hitter-friendly temporary home park despite their 10-run outburst in Oakland  on Thursday, as Toronto has posted just a .229 average, .291 OBP, -9.3 wRAA and .286 wOBA against right-handed pitching when traveling this season while averaging just 3.8 runs per road contest. Urquidy has a respectable .238 BAA, 1.15 WHIP and 1.1 HR/9 thus far, and he’s also reduced the hard-hit rate percentage against him from 2020’s 38.9 percent to 33.0 percent through six starts, per Statcast. Finally, consider the Astros are between -135 and -143 favorites at multiple sportsbooks as of early Friday, and Urquidy’s opposite number, Ross Stripling, has pitched poorly enough this season to support Houston’s solid status with oddsmakers.

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FanDuel DFS Infielders

Freddie Freeman – 1B, ATL vs PHI ($3,500)

Freeman’s current .202 average is naturally nowhere near indicative of his talent, and it’s belied by his .399 xwOBA, .291 xBA, .606 xSLG and atypically low .188 BABIP. The left-handed slugger is matching last season’s 92.4 mph average exit velocity as well, and although his 19.5 percent line-drive rate and 39.1 percent hard-contact rate are below his lofty career norms, they’re by no means mediocre. Essentially, all of Freeman’s underlying metrics indicate a significant breakout is coming, but given that many casual DFS players we’re competing against may not necessarily dig too deep beyond the surface numbers and/or could be somewhat put off by the matchup vs. a quality pitcher like Zach Eflin on a large slate, Freeman makes for an interesting tournament consideration in particular. Eflin has undeniably done a very good job with his control and in keeping the ball in the park, but it’s worth noting he’s still having plenty of trouble against left-handed hitters in the form of a .328 BAA, .845 OPS and .364 wOBA allowed in a 68-batter sample. The numbers are worse across the board when facing them on the road (.412 BAA, 1.118, .478 wOBA over a small 17-batter sample), and Freeman, despite his overall struggles, owns a .325 average, 1.088 OPS and .459 wOBA in his 46 PAs versus righties at home.

DJ LeMahieu– 2B, NYY vs. WSH ($2,900)

LeMahieu is another elite hitter whose numbers currently pale in comparison to last season, but in his case, that’s partly because he set an especially high bar in 2020. LeMahieu actually sports a solid .267 average and impressive .361 OBP thus far, but his .336 slugging percentage is a far cry from last season’s .590 figure. Nevertheless, the veteran owns a very good .349 xwOBA, along with a stronger .288 xBA and .409 xSLG. Nationals southpaw Patrick Corbin makes for a good target for LeMahieu for a number of reasons, not the least of which is the fact he’s tagged him for a .353/.389/.706 slash with three triples, four homers and only four strikeouts across a robust career sample of 55 plate appearances. Additionally, Corbin’s poor start to 2021 includes a middling 6.9 K/9, bloated 5.4 BB/9 and 2.7 HR/9, along with a 7.34 xERA that substantiates his actual 8.10 figure isn’t too far off base. Moreover, Corbin has given up a .319 average, 1.098 OPS and .462 wOBA to the 84 right-handed hitters he’s encountered, along with a 41.2 percent hard-contact rate when facing them on the road. Additionally, before an 0-for-5 night Thursday, LeMahieu was hitting .355 (11-for-31) over his previous eight games, a stretch during which he struck out at a minuscule 10.5 percent clip.

Kyle Seager– 3B, SEA at TEX ($2,900)

Seager’s .242 average and .295 OBP both have ample room for improvement, but the veteran third baseman faces a right-hander in the Rangers’ Mike Foltynewicz on Friday that could help facilitate one of his more productive fantasy performances. Seager has actually been putting better wood on the ball than his numbers might indicate, considering the gulf between his .323 wOBA and .378 xwOBA. Other Statcast figures back that up – Seager owns a career-high 14.7 percent barrel rate, 44.2 percent hard-hit rate, a .288 xBA and a .600 xSLG. Meanwhile, Foltynewicz has an elevated 4.80 xERA and has given up a .310 average, 1.031 OPS, .429 wOBA, 10 extra-base hits (incl. five homers) and a 40.8 percent hard-contact rate to left-handed hitters. Seager also has all five of his homers versus righties, along with a .341 average, 1.172 OPS,.481 wOBA and .439 ISO in 46 PAs against them on the road.

Carlos Correa – SS, HOU vs. TOR ($2,900)

Correa represents some cost-effective exposure to Stripling, who, as was alluded to earlier in Urquidy’s entry, has opened the season in questionable fashion. The right-hander does have an impressive 9.9 K/9, but he also sports a 5.43 xERA that’s not that much lower than his actual 6.39 figure, and he’s pitched to a 1.4 HR/9, 1.74 WHIP, career-high 11.9 percent barrel rate and 40.5 percent hard-hit rate. Stripling is also encountering almost all his trouble when facing righty bats, as evidenced by the .436 average, 1.183 WHIP and .496 wOBA he’s allowed that handedness. Zooming out to a larger career sample, Stripling has pitched to a .342 wOBA against right-handed hitters, largely dispelling the notion he’s just been unlucky early this season. Correa has a solid .359 xwOBA, .315 xBA and .517 xSLG that all imply he should be enjoying a bit more success at the plate, and despite some middling numbers against righties thus far, he’s tagged them for a 45.5 percent hard-contact rate. He’s also likely to be lightly rostered on the large slate considering the 0-for-20 slump he’ll enter Friday with, but it’s worth noting his 53.8 percent hard-contact rate over that span supports the notion he’s had a good deal of misfortune when putting the ball in play.

FanDuel DFS Outfielders

J.D. Martinez – OF, BOS at BAL ($4,300)

Sometimes it’s best not to overthink things in DFS, and a Martinez matchup against the Orioles’ Matt Harvey is Exhibit A. The history between the two is brief (six PAs) but very favorable toward Martinez (.667 average), but the reasoning for him goes way beyond that small sample. The slugger is enjoying a resurgent 2021, with his .472 wOBA and 1.127 OPS just some of the numbers that back that up. Martinez is also carrying a jaw-dropping .536 wOBA, .571 ISO and 1.317 OPS in his first 33 plate appearances versus righties on the road, with five of his nine hits in that sample having left the yard. Harvey has undeniably put together an impressive 3-1 start to the season, but his 6.4 K/9, 4.55 xERA, 4.54 xFIP and 4.67 SIERA all indicate he’s not necessarily that far off from running into some of the issues that have plagued him in recent years. Then, consider righty hitters are still having their way with Harvey, as he’s pitched to a .316 average, .828 OPS and .363 wOBA against them while also allowing that handedness an elevated 26.7 percent line-drive rate.

Franmil Reyes - OF, CLE vs. CIN ($3,500)

Reyes gets a crack at a veteran left-hander in Wade Miley who’s started off the season in solid form as well, but who sports a 4.37 xERA that’s considerably larger than his actual 2.67 figure. Miley, much like Harvey, doesn’t miss many bats these days, as he owns just a 6.3 K/9. Moreover, while he’s done a good job limiting hard contact, he’s still clearly been fortunate with just a .203 BABIP against him. Miley is also allowing a robust 27.2 percent line-drive rate to right-handed hitters on the road, while Reyes checks in with a .405 wOBA, .407 xwOBA and massive 22.1 percent barrel rate and 55.9 percent hard-hit rate. He’s absolutely decimated southpaws at home in a small sample of 17 plate appearances (.438 average, .610 wOBA, .563 ISO), and normalizing those a bit with a career-long view, Reyes still looks like an excellent candidate considering his .896 OPS and .379 wOBA versus southpaws across 337 PAs. There’s no questioning the massive ceiling Reyes brings at his salary, either – he’s exceeded 24 FD points on four occasions in his last nine alone, including a pair of tallies over 40.

Manuel Margot – OF, TB at OAK ($3,100)

Margot is always carrying a reasonable salary and brings more upside than may in the DFS landscape give him credit for. The veteran outfielder is an above-average contact hitter that also carries some sneaky pop, evidenced this season by his .342 xwOBA, .287 xBA and .491 xSLG. Margot also has a relatively modest but still career-high 7.6 percent barrel rate and 46.8 percent hard-hit rate per Statcast, and he brings a career .272 average and .326 wOBA against left-handers into Friday’s matchup versus Sean Manaea. The Athletics’ southpaw is allowing a .297 average and .326 wOBA to right-handed hitters while posting just a 7.8 K/9 versus that handedness. Margot also has hit Manaea’s trademark four-seam fastball well this season, posting a .308 average, .367 OBP and .330 wOBA against that offering, and he boasts an exponentially more impressive .385 average and .460 wOBA against the changeup, Manaea’s second-favorite pitch so far in 2021.