Player values are constantly moving targets in daily leagues. A high profile player can put together a couple of big games and see his price tag skyrocket. Likewise, a couple of bad games can lead a player's stock to plummet. The correlation isn't always immediate, leading to some discrepancies in value.
Savvy DFS players can take advantage of falling values and avoid inflated prices to find the best value on a given night in the hopes of increased success. In this article, I will identify players whose anticipated value relative to their current price is on the rise, making them desirable targets. I will also name players whose value is dipping below their cost, making them players to fade.
Note: I will only be selecting players who are owned in at least 75% of Yahoo! leagues. Graphs are taken from SportingCharts.com's NBA Daily Fantasy Value Tracker and are indicative of values on 2/7/17.
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FanDuel Value Risers - Week 16
Blake Griffin (PF, LAC) - Griffin is showing any rust from his month-long hiatus. He's provided 5x value in FanDuel leagues three out of the last four games. That trend should continue as the team relies on the frontcourt to make up for Chris Paul's absence. His salary is currently at the fourth-highest price point it has been all season, so it's unlikely that it will rise much further even if he continues his hot play.
Dirk Nowitzki (PF, DAL) - It's been a tough year for the former MVP, but Nowitzki may be starting to get his legs back. This may look like a curious pick because he has scored in single digits four straight games, after reaching double-digits the previous three games. He makes this list as a value pick, since his $5400 price-point makes him a decent fill-in at the Utility spot. If he puts together a 15/10 line like he did on Jan. 29 against the Spurs, he will be well worth the investment.
Kevin Love (PF/C, CLE) - Two games off may have done Love some good. He was a monster against Washington with 39 points, 12 rebounds, three steals and three assists. This includes the best assist you'll see all year in a full-court pass to Lebron James that resulted in a game-tying three. This could serve as notice to his teammate who is reportedly pushing him out the door to New York. Drama aside, Love is playing like the best version of himself and could be a strong anchor to DFS lineups.
Brook Lopez (C, BKN) - Will Lopez be a Pelican this time next week? Whether the trade rumors prove true, Lopez is still providing solid value, garnering 30 and 35 FanDuel points the last two games at a reasonable price that has stayed suppressed most of January. On the chance he moves alongside Anthony Davis, his salary will likely see a boost. In the meanwhile, he may be better off in Brooklyn with a higher usage rate.
FanDuel Value Fallers - Week 16
Aaron Gordon (SF, ORL) - Gordon was simply miserable against the Raptors, shooting 0-for-7. To make things worse, he's only collected five or more rebounds once in the last five contests. Athleticism alone isn't parlaying into consistent fantasy success and he has mostly been a drag on daily league owners this season. Either Gordon is waiting for one of his teammates to get dealt so he can move back to the power forward position or he is too busy worrying about the dunk contest to focus on his shooting. Either way, avoid him in daily leagues.
Paul Millsap (PF/C, ATL) - Millsap, on the other hand, is usually a model of consistency. That hasn't been the case lately as his monstrous 37-point, 19-rebound effort in overtime against New York may have drained him. He's shooting 39% from the field in the last four games combined. As a result, his inflated price point has made him a tough pick to stick with until his value re-adjusts.
Nerlens Noel (PF/C, PHI) - If you've had the guts to put Noel in your DFS lineup at any time this season, congratulations on winning the Courage award. Noel is as unpredictable as it gets, although he had a nice streak going at the end of January. Noel scored in double-digits four out of five games, with an average of two blocks to close out the month. Since then, he has done virtually nothing. Even with Joel Embiid out and Jahlil Okafor on the trading block, Noel simply can't be trusted with your FD dollars.
Nikola Vucevic (PF/C, ORL) - Perhaps the trade rumors are affecting him, but Vucevic has slumped a bit this past week. 12 combined rebounds over two games on Friday and Saturday combined with a rising price point make it a good time to temporarily shift away from the big man. He rebounded (literally) against Houston, but it might be best to wait for this situation to settle before relying on Magic players.