I'm not sure how we got here so fast, but, we're here - September baseball! It's officially pennant race time, and that's really exciting. On a down note, though, our chances to take down a big GPP are running slim and there are just four baseball games today. In all my time covering fantasy baseball in some form or another, I can't recall a day were there were just four games scheduled. With just three of the four taking place this evening, I'm going to focus on the Main slate.
The Vegas lines today aren't too helpful. As of this writing, we still don't have a run-line or an over/under for the Giants at Cubs, and the other two games - Marlins at Mets and White Sox at Twins - both have low projected run totals. The biggest moneyline favorites of the night are the Cubs at -165 and the Mets at -187. As far as park factors go, the best game for offenses is taking place at the Friendly Confines between the Giants and the Cubs.
In this article, I will be providing you with my daily fantasy baseball MLB lineup picks for FanDuel on 9/1/16. The DFS lineup picks will range from high-priced to low-priced options and identify options who will out-perform their expectations, including sleepers and value plays on FanDuel.
DFS Lineup Stacks to Target for FanDuel
New York Mets left-handed batters versus Jose Urena
The Mets currently have the single highest run projection of the day at 4.4 and the lineup seems to be clicking at the right time, as they've averaged more than 4.5 runs per game over their last three games. Their opponent is Jose Urena, who is one of - if not the - weakest pitcher on the small slate today. In 2016, he's been hit hardest by left-handed batters, allowing a .360 wOBA, .515 slugging percentage and 1.46 HR/9. All three of those figures I just mentioned are the highest allowed numbers of any pitcher manning the bump this evening. My favorite Mets in this stack are Curtis Granderson, Jay Bruce, Asdrubal Cabrera and Alejandro De Aza.
Also Consider: Chicago Cubs versus Jeff Samardzija
DFS Starting Pitchers to Consider for FanDuel
Jose Quintana (SP, CWS) - $9,700
Starting pitcher is a real toss up today in the top tier. I went back and forth between Quintana and deGrom, and Quintana ultimately won out for me for two main reasons. First off, I think his strikeout upside is greater. Quintana has not only had more strikeouts per inning over his last three starts, but he faces a team in the Twins that is more strikeout prone than deGrom's opponent, the Marlins. Additionally, especially on this super small slate, I think deGrom is going to be the chalky pick, and you'll need to have some serious variance today to take down the ultimate prize in a tournament. Over his last two starts, Quintana dazzled, putting up 45 and 56 FanDuel points, respectively. Jose also gets a little bit of a pitching park upgrade tonight, as this game is being played in Minnesota.
Also Consider: Jacob deGrom (SP, NYM) - $10,000
DFS Infielders to Consider for FanDuel
Catcher (C)
Buster Posey (C, SFG) - $3,500
Posey finally isn't too pricey and he has a solid matchup today against Mike Montgomery in Chicago. He gets a park upgrade, has great lineup order value and strong splits against left-handed pitching, too, as showcased by his .397 wOBA and .219 ISO splits.
First Base (1B)
Anthony Rizzo (1B, CHC) - $4,100
After a somewhat below expectations August, Rizzo seems to have found his power stroke again, and he's exceeded his high price implied value in two of his last three games. Tonight, he has good matchup against Jeff Samardzija, who has been smacked around quite a bit this season. Rizzo's season-long splits are really strong, as he owns a .401 wOBA and .265 ISO split.
Second Base (2B)
Brian Dozier (2B, MIN) - $3,700
I hate having to tout a guy who will go up against my top pitcher of the night, but here we are. (Damn you, small slate.) Dozier's numbers, compared to other second baseman, are just far and away better than the next best option (which, in my opinion, is Tommy La Stella). He had a monstrous August, leading the MLB in home runs during that stretch, and he has a .326 ISO and .596 slugging percentage split against southpaws.
Shortstop (SS)
Asdrubal Cabrera (SS, NYM) - $3,000
Cabrera will be a key piece in my Mets' stack tonight and he should find his way into your cash game lineups, too. He is a real steal at this price, especially when you consider the value he brings hitting in the two hole for the offense expected to pour in the most runs tonight. He's been heating up as well, and his .203 ISO split is pretty damn impressive.
Third Base (3B)
Kris Bryant (3B, CHC) - $4,400
Bryant has splits that tell us he has fared slightly better against left-handed pitching this season, but the margin is small. Simply put, he's the strongest third baseman option on the board tonight and he's been crushing the ball lately. For the season, he owns a .396 wOBA and .253 ISO split.
DFS Outfielders to Consider for FanDuel
Curtis Granderson (OF, NYM) - $3,200
Curtis has been smoking the ball and is the proud owner of the highest hard hit rate over the past 15 days of any outfielder playing tonight, at 60%. He also has pretty strong splits (.333 wOBA, .221 ISO) and is a bargain relative to the rest of the field.
Alejandro De Aza (OF, NYM) - $2,400
I didn't deliver a whole lot of salary relief with my earlier picks, so I give you a Mr. De Aza. Like his teammate, Curtis Granderson, he has an incredibly high hard hit rate (48%) over the last 15 days and, being a left-handed hitter, a good matchup against Jose Urena. His wOBA and ISO splits aren't that impressive, but the differentials in his splits suggest that when he's going to do some damage, it's against a right-handed pitcher.
Adam Eaton (OF, NYM) - $3,200
Eaton faces a guy tonight that is no stranger to being roughed up, and I like Eaton's chances tonight do some of that roughing. On the season, he has pretty impressive splits against righties, posting a .352 wOBA and a .453 slugging percentage.
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