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FanDuel Daily Fantasy Baseball Lineup Picks (8/16/16): MLB DFS Advice

Thanks to a double-header at the Friendly Confines, we've got 16 games scheduled for Tuesday. For those interested, FanDuel has a couple All-day contests, but I'm going to focus this column on the Main slate that begins tonight at 7:05 EDT. There are a number of stacking opportunities that I like today, but we'll get to that in a minute.

First, let's take a look at a few interesting Vegas lines. We've got a trio of games with double-digit over/unders listed, starting with the Nationals at Rockies (11), the Athletics at Rangers (10.5) and the Red Sox at Orioles (10). The heaviest moneyline favorites of the evening are the Cubs (-232), Indians (-183), the Rays (-161) and the Mets (-165).

In this article, I will be providing you with my daily fantasy baseball MLB lineup picks for FanDuel on 8/16/16. The DFS lineup picks will range from high-priced to low-priced options and identify options who will out-perform their expectations, including sleepers and value plays on FanDuel.

 

DFS Lineup Stacks to Target for FanDuel

Washington Nationals against Chad Bettis

The first guy I'm looking to stack against is also one of the most obvious. Certainly, any team moving from a park that leans pitcher friendly (Washington) to Coors Field gets a major park faster boost. On top of that, they face Chad Bettis, who has really struggled to limit big innings (1.49 WHIP) and doesn't strike out too many batters, either (7.1 K/9). Bettis' HR/9 is fairly respectable, but every single home run he's allowed this season - with the exception of one - has come at Coors Field. Additionally, this Nationals lineup is one of the strongest from top to bottom against right-handed pitching. For the season, they own a .310 wOBA split in that respect. You could make a number of different combinations from this lineup that is projected for 5.9 runs tonight - the most of the entire slate. My focus, though, is on the four guys - Trea Turner, Bryce Harper, Daniel Murphy and Chris Heisey - whom all have an ISO split against right-handers above .200 for the season.

 

Boston Red Sox against Yovani Gallardo

The Red Sox, like the Nationals, are another team you can stack with a number of different combinations and with hitters from both sides of the plate. With a run projection of 5, the Red Sox own one of the highest projections of the day, and a lot of that is due to the fact the lineup is full of pop and matches up well with a pitcher like Gallardo. For the season, Gallardo has allowed a slugging percentage to both right-handed and left-handed batters north of .450 and his WHIP is an ugly, ugly 1.679. The strikeouts are also down this year (6.63 K/9) and he's allowed a line-drive rate of 23% over his last two starts. Hitters have been squaring him up well and I expect that trend to continue tonight in power friendly Batltimore. If you're chasing home run upside in GPP formats, it would be best to target Boston's left-handed batters, as lefties have had the most success in putting the ball in the seats against Gallardo this season (1.56 HR/9). My favorite Red Sox batters tonight are David Ortiz, Jackie Bradley, Jr., and Travis Shaw. Brock Holt doesn't hit for much power, but his ISO split is more than 100 points higher against right-handed pitchers and he's incredibly cheap, too.

 

Miami Marlins left-handed batters against Anthony DeSclafani

Consider this one a mini-stack that you could potentially combine with other (likely more popular) expensive stacks. Left-handed batters have destroyed DeSclafani this season and the Marlins have two such hitters in the middle of their order that are incredible bargains and have strong splits. For the season, DeSclafani has allowed a .379 wOBA and .551 slugging percentage to left-handed batters, along with a 1.86 HR/9. It's unfortunate there aren't more left-handed batters in this lineup with pop, but keep in mind the Miami hitters do get a major park factor boost. I'm targeting Derek Dietrich and Christian Yelich, who have that upside and are great bargains.

 

Chicago Cubs right-handed batters against Chase Anderson

Aside from the Marlins lefties, my favorite split stack are the Cubs' right-handed batters. Chicago's right-handed batters have a little more pop, a lot more options - and are likely to be owned at a much higher percentage, too. In 2016, Chase Anderson has greatly struggled to retire right-handed batters. His .411 wOBA and .599 slugging percentage allowed are incredibly attractive figures for stacking against. The most attractive number of all, though, is his 2.15 HR/9 allowed to righties. If you're sitting in the Bleachers today, head to the left field seats and grab a souvenir or three. My favorite Cubs' righty bats tonight are Kris Bryant, Addison Russell, Willson Contreras and Matt Szczur.

 

DFS Starting Pitchers to Consider for FanDuel

Corey Kluber (SP, CLE) - $10,700

Kluber is my top versatile option tonight, in that I think you could easily make a case for him in cash game lineups and in tournament formats, as well. He has been incredibly consistent over his last 10 starts, exceeding value in seven of them, and by an average of more than seven points above his salary implied total. In his past two starts, his low hard hit rate of 17% is incredibly impressive and happens to be the best number of any pitcher taking the mound tonight. His 9.5 K/9 is also strong and that gets a fairly good boost tonight against a strikeout prone White Sox team.

 

Blake Snell (SP, TAM) - $7,900

With so many potentially lucrative - but also expensive - stacks tonight, I need a lower-tier price guy with strikeout upside. Enter Blake Snell, who carries a fair amount of risk, but has the swing-and-miss stuff you target in tournament formats. Snell is pitching at home tonight, a great park for pitchers, and he also has an impressive 9.6 K/9. His strikeout outlook gets a boost tonight against the lowly Padres offense that has struck out in nearly 30% of their at-bats versus left-handed pitcher this season.

 

Also Consider: Jason Hammel (SP, CHC) - $9,600

 

DFS Infielders to Consider for FanDuel

Catcher (C)

Yasmani Grandal (C, LAD) - $3,200

Grandal has been utterly smoking the ball over the past two weeks. Hard hit rate isn't a stat I have long had access to - so there isn't a ton for me to compare against - but I've never seen anything like the 76% hard hit rate he owns in that time span. For the season, he owns an ISO split north of .200 and he matches up well against Velasquez, who he hit very well just a week ago.

Also Consider: Jonathon Lucroy (C, TEX) - $3,500

 

First Base (1B)

David Ortiz (1B, BOS) - $4,200

Big Papi's numbers against right-handed pitching are almost hard to believe. In his final season of baseball (or so he says it will be), Ortiz owns a .446 wOBA and .365 ISO split. With numbers like that and facing a home-run prone pitcher, you could easily consider him a bargain at this price point.

Also Consider: Clint Robinson (1B, WAS) - $3,000

 

Second Base (2B)

Daniel Murphy (2B, WAS) - $4,400

Murphy not only owns a .411 wOBA and .270 ISO split - both of which are tremendous numbers, mind you - but he also gets a major park factor boost and faces a subpar pitcher. Over the past two weeks, he has an impressive hard-hit rate as well, which sits at 38%.

Also Consider: Devon Travis (2B, TOR) - $3,500

 

Shortstop (SS)

Corey Seager (SS, LAD) - $3,800

Anytime I can roster Seager against a right-handed pitcher for less than 4K, I consider it a steal. Now consider the fact that he hit Velasquez hard just a week ago and that his splits - .413 wOBA and a .243 ISO - are near the top in the league, and you have to roster him tonight in tournament and cash game formats.

Also Consider: Trea Turner (SS, WAS) - $4,300

 

Third Base (3B)

Jake Lamb (3B, ARI) - $3,100

This is my one contrarian infield pick for tonight. My middle infield options are a little expensive (and perhaps likely to be very popular), so I'm going against the grain for my GPP third baseman in Jake Lamb. His splits are very strong - .383 wOBA and a .258 ISO - and those numbers are more than 100 points higher in each category than his splits against left-handers. The contrarian part? Well, he faces none other than Noah Syndegaard. Syndegaard is no doubt a tough matchup, but if I'm going to attack him, I'm doing so in a hitter's park and at a time where he is (relatively) struggling. For the season, Syndegaard's slugging percentage allowed has inflated every month.

Also Consider: Kris Bryant (3B, CHC) - $4,100

 

DFS Outfielders to Consider for FanDuel

Jackie Bradley Jr. (OF, BOS) - $3,600

Left-handed batters have owned Gallardo this season and Bradley is a nice spot to drive the ball this evening. He delivered a bomb last night and I like his chances to do so again tonight. For the season, he sports a very impressive .276 ISO and .569 slugging percentage against right-handed pitching.

 

Michael Conforto (OF, NYM) - $2,500

What a steal Conforto is at this price point. The second year stud out of Oregon State was slumping there for a while, but he seems to have found his stroke again, as he owns a 47% hard hit rate in the past 15 days. Tonight, he moves to a hitter's ballpark and matches up with with Braden Shipley.

 

Adam Duvall (OF, CIN) - $3,400

I wouldn't consider Duvall's recent performance a slump, but it hasn't been too noteworthy either. Tonight, he's got a great opportunity to put the ball in the seats at Great American against a struggling Jose Urena.

 

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