A 15 game slate in which every game takes place under the lights is a thing of DFS beauty. There are actually 16 games today, thanks to the Mets-Nationals doubleheader, but the early game isn't relevant to daily fantasy. (A bit of a shame, seeing as the pitching matchup - Carlos Martinez versus Noah Syndegaard - is quite a showcase.) Anyway, back to the relevant stuff. There are a handful of solid number two and number three starter options at pitcher to choose from. I'll try to help you sort through the clutter so you can load your lineup from top to bottom.
As for any insights we can gather from Vegas lines, let's take a look at the games with the highest over/under run totals, starting with the Diamondbacks at Brewers (9.5), Tigers at Red Sox (11.5), Rockies at Orioles (9.5), and Padres at Blue Jays (.5). The heaviest moneyline favorites of the day are the Red Sox, Orioles, Blue Jays and Twins. The hitters with the best positive park factors today are the left-handed hitters of the Orioles and Rockies, the right-handed batters of the White Sox and Cubs, and the right-handed batters from the Athletics and Rangers.
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DFS Lineup Stacks to Target for FanDuel
In this article, I will be providing you with my daily fantasy baseball MLB lineup picks for FanDuel on 7/26/16. The DFS lineup picks will range from high-priced to low-priced options and identify options who will out-perform their expectations, including sleepers and value plays on FanDuel.
There are quite a few potentially lucrative stacking options today. Below you can find the four I'll be targeting most heavily.
Giants right-handed batters versus Cody Reed
Cody Reed's stint in the major leagues hasn't been a particularly memorable one for the Reed family thus far. He's been able to rack up strikeouts at a strong rate, but everything else has essentially nullified that success. His WHIP is over 1.7 on the year and he's averaged nearly three home runs per nine innings of work. Right-handed batters have hit him the hardest this season - .421 wOBA, .607 slugging percentage and 2.92 HR/9 - and as such, I'll be targeting the right-handed Giants from the top and middle third of their order.
Blue Jays right-handed batters versus Andrew Cashner
Like is the case with Reed, Cashner has been hit fairly hit by batters from both sides of the plate, but the real value and upside lies in the right-handed batters. Luckily for you and me, the Jays are loaded with power from the right side. On the season, Cashner has allowed a .369 wOBA and a .519 slugging percentage split to righties, while surrendering 1.59 HR/9. In his past two starts, he's had a hard hit rate of nearly 45 percent, too.
Rays left-handed batters versus Bud Norris
I'm targeting the right-handed guys in both of my stacks above, but I think you could sprinkle in a few guys from the left side in either of those stacks. This stack, however, is strictly one sided and I think it could fly under the radar. The Rays haven't been a great offensive team this season but their lefties have a chance to do some damage today, as Norris greatly struggles to retire batters from that side. On the season, he's allowed a .398 wOBA and .541 slugging percentage, along with 1.75 HR/9.
Red Sox versus Mike Pelfrey
Poor Mike Pelfrey. The big right-hander is likely in for a very long night at Fenway. He's been bad this season - at times atrocious - and the task at hand tonight is not an easy one. Vegas has a high over/under listed for this game, but with the Red Sox being such huge favorites, my guess is that Vegas is predicting a lot of firepower on the Boston side this evening. For the season, Pelfrey has allowed a .392 wOBA and .507 slugging percentage to left-handed batters and a .363 wOBA and .454 slugging percentage on the other side.
DFS Starting Pitchers to Consider for FanDuel
Steven Wright (SP, BOS) - $9,700
I'm going back to the Steven Wright well, as he's been so good to me before. The pitching options today are slightly underwhelming, but not terrible. It's not as if there are no upper-rotation (No.2 or 3 guys), but more so that the ones that are front or upper rotation don't have the most stellar of matchups. As for Wright, I think he's in good position to succeed and has a strong chance for the win, seeing as he should get tons of run support with his teammates facing Mike Pelfrey. Wright boasts a K/9 just a fraction under eight and has done an excellent job of keeping the ball in the park, as told by his 0.55 HR/9. What's helping to make this decision a little easier is the fact that Wright sports a hard hit rate of 27% - the fourth best of 30 pitchers today - and a very low line drive rate of only 19%.
Also Consider: Kyle Hendricks (SP, CHC) - $9,200
DFS Infielders to Consider for FanDuel
Catcher (C) - Willson Contreras (C, CHC) - $3,100
Contreras has been hitting in the middle of the order against right-handed pitching, which helps to up his value, and on top of that he matches up very well with James Shields. Shields surrenders a lot of home runs balls to right-handed batters and tonight should be no different at US Cellular. For the season, Contreras has a .382 wOBA and a .227 ISO split.
Also Consider: Matt Wieters (C, BAL) - $3,000
First Base (1B) - Chris Davis (1B, BAL) - $3,900
The decision, without price consideration, between Davis and Ortiz is a bit of a coin flip for me. That said, we most certainly have to consider the prices here and I'd like to save the 1K and spend it elsewhere. Davis has put up some enormous numbers against right-handers this season and I expect he continues the trend tonight.
Also Consider: David Ortiz (1B, BOS) - $4,900
Second Base (2B) - Tommy La Stella (2B, CHC) - $2,400
La Stella has been absolutely smoking the ball when he's inserted in the lineup over the last two weeks, as told by his 50% hard hit rate and 60% line drive rate. To be honest, those numbers are almost unbelievable, but they're real. To make him more enticing, his price is outstanding and as is his matchup against James Shields.
Also Consider: Dustin Pedroia (2B, BOS) - $3,600
Shortstop (SS) - Trevor Story (SS, COL) - $3,600
Continuing with the "this hitter is hot right now" theme, we have Mr. Story, just a few days removed from a 5-5, two home run performance Saturday night. While he is away from Coors Field now, Camden Yards isn't a bad place for offense by any stretch. Oh, and his numbers, especially those in the power department, are certainly the strongest among shortstops - .387 wOBA and a .312 ISO.
Also Consider: Jonathan Villar (SS, MIL) - $4,200
Third Base (3B) - Jake Lamb (3B, ARI) - $3,600
Keep an eye on his status today as he has been a little banged up. That said, if he's in the middle of the order somewhere, he's a must play against Matt Garza. Lamb has monstrous splits and should do some damage tonight if given the opportunity.
Also Consider: Pedro Alvarez (3B, BAL) - $2,700
DFS Outfielders to Consider for FanDuel
Mookie Betts (OF, BOS) - $4,200
As I alluded to in my stacks piece above, I'm going to have a lot of Red Sox shares tonight. I think they'll get to Pelfrey early and often, and who better to lead things off than Mr. Betts. For the season, he owns a .383 wOBA and a .226 ISO split and has an impressive hard-hit rate of 42% over the past 15 days.
George Springer (OF, HOU) - $3,500
Springer, destroyer of southpaws, has a really strong matchup today against CC Sabathia and he is most certainly a bargain at this price. One look at his splits should be all you need to consider him this evening - .405 wOBA and a .263 ISO.
Max Kepler (OF, MIN) - $3,200
Kepler is really hot right now and it's best to jump on board the train before his price is too much of a reach to spend up on. Kepler owns a hard-hit rate of 45% over the past 15 days and his splits - especially those in the power categories - are to be reckoned with. His .295 ISO and .541 slugging percentage are two of the main reasons he'll be in my outfield tonight.
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